| | | | Wednesday, June 5, 2024 | | Tuesday wasn't the most actionable day of baseball this season, but that's okay because we still had plenty to get excited about. If the 2024 season so far has been defined by injuries, Tuesday was defined by a rare bit of good news on the injury front. | | We got two potential difference makers back, with Luis Robert (hip) and Royce Lewis (quad) both coming off the IL with a bang Tuesday, as each homered in their first game back. Injuries remain a significant issue for both of them, but if you could guarantee me even 80% of the remaining games from either, I'd probably rank both as top-50 overall players, with Lewis as a top-five 3B and Robert as a top-11 OF. | | Gerrit Cole isn't back from his injury yet, but he took a big step forward Tuesday as well, making his first rehab assignment. We don't have full radar readings from this one, but Cole seemed to be sitting around 95-96 and touching 97, and he struck out five over 3.1 shutout innings at Double-A. He probably still has at least a few more weeks worth of rehab ahead of him, but we're starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel, finally. | | It wasn't all good news Tuesday, of course – it never will be, it seems. And we'll get to all of that in the rest of today's newsletter. But I wanted to start with some positive news because that's been in short supply this season. | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Masyn Winn, SS, Cardinals (53%) – Alright, what's the hold up? Is it just that nobody really needs a shortstop, and that's why you all aren't adding Winn? Is it his relatively pedestrian counting stats? Winn is on pace for just 60 runs and 60 RBI despite hitting over .300 for the season with an OPS now approaching .800. That's mostly a function of his low spot in a mediocre lineup, and you've gotta think the Cardinals are going to move him up at some point, so I wouldn't really hold it against him. I've made the comp to Tim Anderson a few times over the past few weeks, and Winn is slowly starting to tap into some of that 15-20 homer power Anderson used to have – he has three homers over his past 15 games after Tuesday's. With 20-plus steal upside (potentially more if he wants to be more aggressive) and a potential standout batting average, Winn should at least be rostered in all categories leagues, and if he gets moved up in the order, he's going to matter in points, too. | | Brandon Lowe, 2B, Rays (53%) – For the most part, it hasn't turned into production yet, but I remain pretty confident Lowe is going to be a solid Fantasy option this season, and if you missed out on Nolan Gorman during his recent homer binge, Lowe is a solid consolation prize. He finally hit his first homer of the season Tuesday as part of a massive game where he also had a double, drove in five runs and scored two, and even had a walk for good measure. Lowe was still on a 30-plus homer pace last year despite dealing with injuries, and he can still absolutely be one of the standout power options at the 2B position when he's right. If Tuesday is any indication, he might be about to take off. | | | | Connor Norby, 2B, Orioles (15%) – The Orioles' embarrassment of riches when it comes to young hitters has left multiple talented young prospects on the outside looking in even after getting called up, but that doesn't seem to be the case for Norby early on, as he has started each of his first two games since being called up to replace Jorge Mateo. Mateo's absence may be short-lived, so Norby needs to get hot quick to have a chance to force their hands, and that's what he did Tuesday, clubbing his first MLB home run. It is his only hit through two games, and Norby is neither enough of a sure thing as a hitter nor assured enough of a role to be worth viewing as a must-add player, but in deeper leagues, I don't mind putting a claim in just to see if he can get hot. | | Aaron Ashby, SP, Brewers (7%) – I'll be honest, the waiver-wire pitching options on Tuesday night weren't great. There was Patrick Sandoval (32%) rostered, who put together a terrific start against the Padres and did have a nice little velocity boost (up 1.4 mph), and with two starts next week, maybe he could be useful; that being said, Sandoval has a long and pretty mediocre track record at this point, so I'm not going to blame you if you pass. Adam Mazur made his MLB debut and got decent results against the A's, though with twice as many walks as strikeouts, so I'm probably going to pass until he shows us something more. And Frankie Montas had a terrific start against the Rockies in Coors Field, and I just don't know what to take from that one – Coors Field is such a weird place to pitch that I tend to just throw most results out, and his increased slider usage in this start doesn't exactly make me more confident, seeing as that's never really been the key pitch for him. I'm not saying I have much confidence in Ashby, who has really struggled in the minors this season. But I'm willing to give him a look in his potential start Wednesday against the Phillies based on the upside he showed in 2022 when he struck out 10.6 per nine and had a 3.75 xERA. | | | | News and Notes | | Cristian Javier is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery on Thursday. He likely won't be ready to return until the second half of 2025. It's a tough blow for Javier, who hasn't looked right for some time. | | Major League Baseball announced Tuesday that it has cleared Shohei Ohtani, closed its investigation, and considers him "a victim of fraud" at the hands of his former interpreter, Ippei Mizuhara. | | Kyle Tucker was out of the lineup after fouling a ball off his right shin Monday night. X-rays did come back negative. He's day-to-day. | Ranger Suarez played catch without any issues on Tuesday and looks to be on track to start this weekend against the Mets in London.
Jack Flaherty left his start early due to back tightness. He had thrown five shutout innings with just 60 total pitches before the injury. A.J. Hinch said the team still does not know the severity of the injury, but let's hope it's nothing too serious for one of this season's best bounce-back stories. | | Andres Muñoz was removed from his outing after a collision in the field, which apparently exacerbated a back injury he has been pitching through for the past few weeks. He'll have an MRI, but we could see Ryne Stanek or Tayler Saucedo in line for saves if Munoz has to miss time. | | Alex Bregman got hit by a pitch on his left hand but stayed in the game. X-rays came back negative. | | CJ Abrams returned to the Nationals lineup after missing three straight with a jammed left shoulder. | | Zach Eflin will return from the IL to start Wednesday against the Marlins. | | Edwin Diaz threw a bullpen session Tuesday. Manager Carlos Mendoza said there is a good chance Diaz will begin a rehab assignment on Thursday. He could be back next week when the Mets return from their series in London, and I think you could drop either Adam Ottavino or Reed Garrett if you need the roster spot. | | Evan Carter will be out for at least a month with a stress reaction in his back. | | Max Scherzer threw a 40-pitch batting practice session Tuesday, the first time he's faced hitters since being pulled off his rehab assignment. Afterward, Scherzer said he's hoping his next step will be to make a rehab start. | | Tyler O'Neill began a rehab assignment at Triple-A on Tuesday. The Red Sox remain optimistic he'll be activated when first eligible on Wednesday. | | Wilyer Abreu was placed on the IL with a right ankle sprain, retroactive to June 3. Rob Refsnyder started in left field with Bobby Dalbec in right against the lefty Max Fried. | | Trevor Williams was placed on the IL with a right flexor strain, which came out of nowhere. The team recalled DJ Herz from Triple-A. Herz is their 12th ranked prospect according to MLB pipeline, but he's really struggled with control this season and didn't really impress against the Mets Tuesday, so there's no rush to add him at this point. | | Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Robert Gasser might miss some time but the first MRI on his elbow looked "pretty normal". | | Tommy Pham was placed on the IL with a left ankle sprain, retroactive to June 3. He actually suffered the injury on the play at the plate where Pham slid hard into William Contreras. | | Thairo Estrada returned to the lineup after missing three straight with a jammed thumb. | | Masataka Yoshida is expected to start a minor league rehab assignment this weekend. | | Shelby Miller was activated from the IL and could be a name to watch in the Tigers bullpen with Jason Foley looking shaky. | | The Braves signed Brian Anderson to a major-league contract on Tuesday. He'll provide some depth in the wake of the Acuña injury. | | The Reds promoted one of their outfield prospects Blake Dunn. He was in the lineup, batting eighth against the lefty Ty Blach. He's an older prospect at 25 years old who has put up some solid power-speed numbers in recent years, so it's a name to keep an eye on if he starts to earn playing time. It's a great home park and we know they'll let him run if he gets on base. | | The Athletic's Dennis Lin and Ken Rosenthal report that the Padres have shown strong interest in Garrett Crochet. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish are on the IL, so their interest makes sense. | | Tuesday's standouts | | Tyler Glasnow, Dodgers @PIT: 6 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K – Glasnow has a 3.00 ERA with 41 strikeouts over his past five starts and has no wins to show for it. I have nothing to add here except that baseball is an incredibly funny sport sometimes. You can make an argument he's the best pitcher in baseball right now. | | Jared Jones, Pirates vs. LAD: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Jones came out on fire, regularly pumping triple-digit heat early on and averaging 98.4 with his four-seamer, up 1.2 mph for the season. It's been a little rocky for Jones lately, but I still expect him to be an ace moving forward. | | Max Fried, Braves @BOS: 7 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 13 K – That's a career-high for Fried, and doesn't April feel like such a long time ago? Fried was awful in his first couple of starts and still had an ERA over 4.00 as late as May 5; it's down to 2.93, with a 1.02 WHIP to go with it for the season. He ditched his sweeper in this one and relied instead on his curveball, which was tremendous, racking up seven whiffs and a 46% called-plus-swinging-strike rate. Fried is about as good as a pitcher can be without striking out a batter per inning, and I'm back to having zero concerns here. | | Shota Imanaga, Cubs vs. CHW: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K – While the overall line wasn't bad for Fantasy, we're certainly going to get at least a few, "What's wrong with Imanaga???" questions sent our way over the next few days. I'm not sure there's anything wrong with Imanaga, and even in this one, there was more good than bad – he allowed an average exit velocity of just 82.5 mph with more than a strikeout per inning. I think we're seeing some combination of natural regression, Imanaga simply not executing as well as he was early on, and then perhaps a bit of the ball traveling a bit farther for a fly ball pitcher. I still expect Imanag to be very good moving forward, but I also still think there's a sell-high window here, with Imanaga's ERA remaining below 2.00 when it will probably end up a run and a half higher, I'd guess. He's terrific, but doesn't have elite strikeout skills and will probably continue to struggle with homers moving forward. He's more like a Joe Ryan than a true ace, at least in my eyes. | | Luis Gil, Yankees vs. MIN: 6 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Gil feels like one of the toughest players in Fantasy to value right now. I wrote the case for him as a sell-high candidate earlier this week , and I stand by that even more with his BABIP down to .178 and his ERA now more than a full run lower than his FIP, xFIP, or xERA. Then you add in that there seems to be a near certainty that Gil will have to be removed from the rotation at some point to preserve his innings, and it just seems like this is about as good as it's ever going to get for him. | | Jesus Luzardo, Marlins vs. TB: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 9 ER, 2 BB, 2K – Luzardo just hasn't been quite right for most of this season, and it's hard not to wonder whether the elbow injury that briefly landed him on the IL might not be playing a part. But I do want to highlight something I remember Eno Sarris of The Athletic saying before the season : "Here's what worries me about Luzardo: The biggest difference, pitch-wise, between his six-plus ERA in 2021 and his two mid-three ERA seasons that came after is basically one mph on the fastball. That's it!" Luzardo's fastball velocity is down about 1 mph right now, and that pitch has been a big problem for him, generating a single called strike and no whiffs Tuesday. This might not be an easy fix. | | Bailey Ober, Twins @NYY: 5 IP, 3 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – When Ober came into spring throwing harder, Fantasy players had dreams of an ace-level outcome. Now, we're just hoping he can keep his ERA back below 5.00. I generally think Ober is going to be fine, but his fastball is just getting crushed right now, and he's not doing enough with his other pitches to overcome that. There's a buy-low window, but I'm not sure the upside is so high that it should be a huge priority. | | Ryan Pepiot , Rays @MIA: 6 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – There's a lot to like about the way Pepiot is pitching right now, I just don't know how sustainable it is. His fastball has been an elite pitch, sporting a 37.6% whiff rate and .242 xwOBA to date, the best mark among all starting pitchers in both categories. As long as he can sustain that, he should be fine, but while FanGraphs' Stuff+ model thinks Pepiot does have a top-10 four-seamer in the game, it's not like it rates out like Jared Jones' version of the pitch. Which is to say, I'm not sure I buy Pepiot as a must-start pitcher moving forward, despite these flashes. | | Seth Lugo, Royals @CLE: 6 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 5 K – Well, there's the start of the regression. I think Lugo will be a totally useful pitcher moving forward, but I also expect his 2.13 ERA to increase by probably another run and a half moving forward, more in line with his 3.66 xERA entering today's start. | | Cristopher Sanchez, Phillies vs. MIL: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K – That's now four starts in a row with one or fewer walks for Sanchez after a shaky start. That was the key to his improvement last season, and it's certainly nice to see here, though Sanchez has also sacrificed strikeouts since last season, so the overall package remains less interesting in my eyes. He's a solid pitcher, but probably more like a mid-3.00s ERA than his current sub-3.00 mark. | | Kutter Crawford, Red Sox vs. ATL: 6 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 2 BB, 5 K – Pretty much the entire Red Sox rotation has regressed since April, and Crawford is no exception. I'm not sure there's an obvious explanation for why he's taken such a big step back, but it is noteworthy that his sweeper has been much less effective overall; he generated just two whiffs with it and gave up one batted ball Tuesday, a 104.3 mph single to Sean Murphy. Prioritizing that pitch looked like it might have been the key to unlocking another level for Crawford, but it hasn't been nearly as effective as it was in a small sample last season, and he might need to go back to the drawing board as his struggles continue. | | | | | | | | USL | | Golazo Network | Two teams from the Lone Star State clash tonight. Watch as San Antonio takes on El Paso at 9 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
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