Corn, soybean and wheat market keys over the next 30 days. To view this email as a web page,
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Corn
Weather over the next month will be the key determining factor in price. The Midwest is projected to continue recent dryness with no meaningful rain in the forecast for the next ten days, World Weather Inc reports. This will likely continue to weigh on Corn Condition ratings, which have already started the year off below average. Our research suggests a record yield will be improbable, let alone making trendline yield that is nearly 5 bushel/acre over the current record. The dryness leads to early-stage crop development concerns, but dryness at this juncture will be nearly irrelevant if rain comes during pollination. The current forecast and early crop stress will likely continue to favor bulls over the next month. Soybeans
USDA’s June 30 Acreage report will provide market insight around the number of planted acres throughout the country, though USDA’s weekly crop condition scores will largely factor into the data. Based on the government’s initial end-of-March projections of 87.5 million acres of soybeans, at a pace of 83% completed as of May 28, 14.875 million acres of soybeans were yet to be planted. While persisting conditions favorable for planting will likely see the biggest part of these acres planted, summer, namely August, weather will ultimately dictate the size of the U.S. crop. Wheat
USDA last Friday morning reported net old-crop U.S. wheat sales reductions of 210,500 MT, well below the expected range of (100,000) and 100,000 MT. New-crop sales of 466,500 MT were reported for the week--above trade expectations. U.S. wheat sales abroad will have to improve in the coming weeks in order for the wheat futures markets to continue to trend higher. That may be a difficult chore if the U.S. dollar index, which hit a nine-week high this week, continues to appreciate. | | |
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