🌍 MEF Dispatch: Aleppo's Fall Reshapes Syria — Assad's Regime at Risk

Syria on the Brink

By Gregg Roman ● Dec 02, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 3.5 mins...964 words

Rebel forces have captured Aleppo in a lightning offensive that reshapes Syria's civil war. Our analysts examine how this watershed moment shifts power across the Middle East, what it means for Assad's survival, and why Turkey's growing influence could rewrite regional dynamics. We also look at Israel's intensifying strikes against Iranian proxies in Syria, and how Tehran's attention to the Lebanon front created the opening for Aleppo's fall. Read on for the full analysis of this breaking development.

Aleppo's Capture Shifts Syria's Conflict

The rapid advance of Turkey-backed Syrian groups and Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham into Aleppo has reignited a previously frozen conflict.

Why it matters: The fall of Aleppo to rebels marks a significant shift in Syria's 13-year conflict, potentially undermining Assad's control over other regions.

The big picture: With Iran distracted by the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, Syrian forces were left vulnerable, allowing rebels to capitalize. The absence of Hezbollah, due to its redeployment to Lebanon, created a power vacuum in Aleppo.

What’s next: Turkey's leverage over Assad increases, as the capture may lead to an extended period of rebel dominance in northwestern Syria, especially if Russian or Iranian support falters. Ankara's approval of this operation indicates a strategic move to influence Syria's future dynamics.

Details: The offensive was orchestrated with careful planning, leveraging Turkey's support to secure military and political backing. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani's strategy involved coordinating with Turkish-backed groups to ensure success.

The bottom line: Aleppo's capture not only shifts the power dynamics in Syria but also highlights Turkey's significant influence in the region, complicating prospects for reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus.

Assad's Fall: A Double-Edged Sword

The potential fall of the Assad regime in Syria presents complex challenges and opportunities for the U.S. and the Middle East.

Why it matters: The collapse of Assad's regime could lead to a power vacuum, potentially filled by radical Sunni groups, threatening regional stability and U.S. interests.

The big picture: With Assad's potential defeat, Syria may see an increase in influence from Turkey-backed Islamist groups, challenging the current geopolitical balance.

Driving the news: The swift advance of Turkey-backed and Al Qaeda-linked groups like Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham through key Syrian territories such as Aleppo signals a significant shift in power dynamics, raising alarms in Western capitals about the region's future.

What’s next: Policymakers must carefully consider the aftermath of Assad's fall to avoid empowering radical groups and ensure a stable transition that aligns with U.S. and regional goals.

Yes, but: While the downfall of Assad might seem like a victory, it poses the risk of empowering Turkey's influence, which could further destabilize the region, drawing parallels with Iran's regional ambitions.

The Lightning Offensive in Northwest Syria

In a dramatic turn of events, insurgent factions led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham have captured Aleppo, marking the first major military action in Syria in nearly five years.

Why it matters: This offensive reverses years of government gains and highlights systemic issues within the Syrian Army, challenging Assad's regime.

The big picture: The insurgency's success reflects a failure of the Syrian government to anticipate and prepare for renewed conflict, despite the previous ceasefire.

What’s next: Assad's survival hinges on continued support from Russia and Iran, yet a decisive counter-offensive is necessary to reclaim lost territory.

Israeli Strikes Target Iran-Backed Militias in Syria

Israeli airstrikes in Syria have intensified, targeting Iranian-backed militias and disrupting their operations.

Why it matters: These strikes aim to degrade the leadership of Hezbollah and other pro-Iranian groups in Syria.

Despite the disruptions, experts warn that Tehran's proxies remain resilient and continue to pose a significant threat.

By the numbers: The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported over 150 Israeli strikes in 2024, impacting various provinces.

What’s next: Iran may shift its military assets and proxies to maintain operational security and counter Israeli actions.

As Syria enters this new phase of instability, policymakers face crucial decisions that will shape the region's future. The fall of Aleppo to Turkish-backed forces and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham creates both opportunities and risks that demand immediate attention.

First, Western governments must prevent a power vacuum that could benefit extremist groups. This requires engaging with Turkey to establish clear red lines about which opposition forces receive support, while pushing for moderate leadership in newly captured territories. The international community should also work to ensure humanitarian access to Aleppo and other contested areas, avoiding the civilian catastrophes that marked earlier phases of the conflict.

Second, the weakening of Assad's position opens a window for diplomatic initiatives. Rather than allowing Turkey and Russia to dominate negotiations, the U.S. and European allies should push for inclusive talks that address Syria's governance, minority rights, and the eventual withdrawal of foreign forces. This could include establishing local councils in opposition-held areas that represent diverse ethnic and religious groups.

Third, containing Iran's influence remains crucial. While Tehran's focus on Lebanon created this opening in Syria, policymakers should expect Iran to attempt to reassert control. This requires continued support for Israel's campaign against Iranian military assets in Syria while working to prevent escalation into a wider regional conflict.

Finally, the international community must prepare for Assad's potential fall by developing plans to secure chemical weapons sites, prevent mass refugee flows, and maintain basic government functions. The chaos that followed regime changes in Iraq and Libya offers sobering lessons about the importance of day-after planning.

The coming months will test whether the international community can turn Syria's latest crisis into an opportunity for positive change. Success will require balancing competing interests, engaging with difficult partners, and maintaining focus on long-term stability over short-term gains. The alternative - allowing extremist groups to fill the void or watching Syria spiral into even deeper chaos - would threaten security interests far beyond the Middle East.

Best Regards,

Gregg Roman
Director
Middle East Forum

Was this edition useful?

Your responses are anonymous

Powered by