MEF Dispatch: Ceasefire in Gaza, Uncertainty in Syria

MEF Dispatch: Ceasefire in Gaza, Uncertainty in Syria

By Ahnaf Kalam ● Jan 15, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 7.5 mins...1928 words

We begin this edition with our Israel Insider podcast, where we discuss the just-announced ceasefire and hostage deal between Israel and Hamas. Next, we delve into the shifting dynamics of the Middle East, highlighting how Turkey, led by President Erdoğan, is filling the power vacuum left by Iran's diminished influence, engaging with Sunni allies to alter the region's balance of power through strategic actions in Syria and connections with jihadist groups. We also explore Syria's evolving post-conflict scenario, including the rise of controversial military figures, the dissolution of Iran-backed militias, and how Syrian Kurds might navigate this new landscape by aligning with Taiwan against Turkish threats. Additionally, we analyze Israel's strategic engagements with Hamas-linked charities, profile a pro-Hamas American professor in the heart of the nation's capital, report on Islamists' downplaying of the U.K.'s "grooming gangs," and note a victory over an Islamist group in Canada.

ICYMI: Israel Insider with Ashley Perry

How was the ceasefire agreed to? Why now? And what does it mean militarily, diplomatically and politically for Israel?

Ashley Perry is an advisor to the Middle East Forum’s Israel office. He served as adviser to Israel's minister of foreign affairs and deputy prime minister in 2009-15, and has also worked with Israel's Ministers of Intelligence, Agriculture and Rural Development, Energy, Water and Infrastructure, Defense, Tourism, Internal Security, and Immigrant Absorption and as an advisor to The Negev Forum. Originally from the U.K., he moved to Israel in 2001. He holds a B.A. from University College London and an M.A. from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya).

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

As Iranian Power Recedes, Turkey and Its Sunni Allies Are Filling the Vacuum

Iran's Influence Diminishes: The strategic landscape in the Middle East has seen significant changes as Iran's power recedes, opening the door for Turkey and Sunni allies to fill the void.

Why it matters: This shift alters the balance of power in the region, with potential implications for regional stability and Western interests.

The decline of Iran-backed groups like Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas has weakened Tehran's regional influence.

The rise of Turkey's influence introduces a new dynamic, challenging both Iran's and the U.S.-aligned bloc's positions.

Turkey's Strategic Moves: Under President Erdoğan, Turkey has strategically supported Sunni allies, especially in Syria, where Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham's victory highlights Turkey's growing influence.

Turkey's backing of Sunni Islamism offers an alternative to Iran's Shia-driven strategy.

Ankara's involvement is reshaping the political landscape, potentially leading to new conflicts with Shia elements.

What's next: As the U.S. inaugurates a new president, Israel may seek renewed support against Iran, amidst concerns of Iran's missile and nuclear capabilities.

The strategic balance will continue to evolve, with Turkey's actions and U.S. involvement playing critical roles.

The competition between these three power blocs—Turkey, Iran, and U.S.-aligned states—will define the region's trajectory in 2025.

To read the full article, click here.

The IRGC and Hezbollah’s ‘Forces of the Friends’ in Syria

Background: The “Forces of the Friends” was a coalition of Syrian fighters supported by Iran's IRGC and Hezbollah, crucial during the Syrian conflict.

Why it matters: With the collapse of Assad's regime, these formations have also disbanded, leaving a void and questions about future Iranian influence.

The Local Defense Forces, as part of this network, played a significant role in bolstering Assad's military efforts.

Understanding their experiences is key to documenting the conflict's history, despite challenges in obtaining unbiased accounts.

Interview Insights: A recent interview with a former member sheds light on the motivations and dynamics within the “Forces of the Friends.”

Individuals often joined to avoid conscription into the regular army and for financial stability.

The forces were perceived as less oppressive compared to the regime's army, with no enforced conversions to Shia Islam.

What's next: As the new Syrian government takes control, the dismantling of these forces alters regional power dynamics.

Iran's strategic routes across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon remain a topic of interest and secrecy.

The future of the “axis of resistance” and relations between Iran and Syria will be pivotal in shaping regional geopolitics.

To read the full article, click here.

Restructured Syrian Army Promotes Turkish Al-Qaeda Terrorist to Brig. General

Background: Ömer Çiftçi, a Turkish al-Qaeda operative, has been controversially promoted to brigadier general in the newly restructured Syrian army.

Why it matters: This development highlights the complex alliances and shifting power dynamics in the region, raising concerns about the influence of jihadist groups within state institutions.

Çiftçi's past affiliations with al-Qaeda and his role in Syrian conflicts underscore the challenges of integrating former militants into formal military structures.

His promotion raises questions about the potential impact on regional stability and international relations.

Role and Influence: Çiftçi, known for his strategic alliances and military expertise, has played a significant role in the Syrian conflict.

He facilitated cooperation between HTS and the Turkish Armed Forces, leading joint operations and forging alliances among jihadist factions.

His appointment reflects the ongoing influence of Turkish intelligence in Syrian affairs.

Controversy: Despite being on Turkey's most-wanted list, Çiftçi's name was removed following his promotion, sparking speculation about political motivations.

His case exemplifies the broader issue of jihadist figures assuming official roles in Syria's government, undermining the new leadership's claims that it wants an inclusive, tolerant society in post-Assad Syria.

To read the full article, click here.

Syrian Kurds Should Embrace Taiwan

Background: As Trump focuses on countering China, Syrian Kurds are encouraged to engage with Taiwan to shift geopolitical dynamics and counter Turkish aggression.

Why it matters: This move could alter the regional power balance, highlighting Turkey's ties with China and challenging Trump's agenda.

By reaching out to Taiwan, Syrian Kurds could draw U.S. attention to the strategic implications of Turkish actions aligned with Chinese interests.

This partnership could position the Kurds as valuable allies in the broader geopolitical struggle against China's influence.

Strategic Opportunities: Engaging Taiwan might bolster Kurdish visibility on the global stage, potentially attracting support and resources.

Taiwan could offer military aid, leveraging Turkey's reduced influence over Taipei due to downgraded trade relations.

This strategy could push Trump to reconsider the repercussions of abandoning Kurdish allies.

What's next: As tensions rise, the Kurds must act swiftly to secure international alliances and resources to withstand Turkish threats.

Building ties with Taiwan could be a game-changer, emphasizing the Kurds' role in the global fight against authoritarian regimes.

The coming months are crucial for Syrian Kurds to redefine their diplomatic approach and garner broader support.

To read the full article, click here.

Why Does Israel (Still) Facilitate Hamas’s Funding?

Background: Israeli authorities have allowed Western Islamist charities, linked to Hamas, to operate in Gaza, raising questions about strategic intentions.

Why it matters: This decision has significant implications for regional stability and the fight against terrorism.

These charities, such as Rahma Worldwide, reportedly support Hamas's welfare infrastructure, potentially undermining Israeli security efforts.

Palestinian accusations of profiteering and corruption within these charities add to the controversy.

Israel's Strategic Calculations: Allowing these charities might be a calculated trade-off to manage criticism and gather intelligence.

Some view this as a means to create competing power centers and dilute Hamas's control over aid distribution.

However, this approach risks empowering Islamist groups and perpetuating their influence.

What's next: Critics argue for a ban on Western Islamist charities in Gaza, suggesting alternative aid methods.

Policymakers must consider the broader impact of maintaining or altering current policies.

The Israeli government faces pressure to reassess its strategies to effectively counter Hamas's influence and support.

To read the full article, click here.

Bassam Haddad, Part 1: George Mason University’s Hamas Cheerleader

Overview: Bassam Haddad, a faculty member at George Mason University (GMU), is scrutinized for his pro-Hamas and anti-Zionist stance.

Why it matters: Haddad's presence at GMU highlights challenges in addressing ideological biases that target Jewish and pro-Israel students with antisemitic teachings.

His connections to Islamist organizations and promotion of controversial ideologies demonstrate his unfitness for his position.

The influence of foreign funding from Muslim nations at GMU further complicates the university's educational environment.

Haddad's Influence: As a key figure in GMU's Middle East and Islamic Studies Program, Haddad's initiatives shape narratives on Middle Eastern politics.

He co-founded Jadaliyya, a platform known for its anti-Israel rhetoric, further amplifying his views.

What's next: Addressing the impact of Haddad's influence requires greater moral and intellectual integrity than GMU's administration and faculty has shown. Outside pressure is necessary if such indoctrination and bias is to be thwarted.

Universities should return to pursuing truth through rigorous research and teaching and move beyond the biased, antisemitic, pro-terrorist ideologies of professors such as Bassam Haddad.

To read the full article, click here.

5Pillars and the Denial of Systemic Child Exploitation in the U.K.

Background: 5Pillars, a prominent U.K.-based Muslim news outlet, faces criticism for downplaying the severity of grooming gangs, labeling them as a “far-right recruitment tool.”

Why it matters: This narrative undermines efforts to address the systemic abuse of vulnerable children in the U.K. and hinders justice.

5Pillars attributes the abuse to "promiscuity among mainly white girls," deflecting blame from perpetrators.

This stance perpetuates fears of being labeled racist, discouraging action against these crimes.

Political Implications: Public outrage has intensified, with calls for accountability among U.K. officials.

Elon Musk's tweets have reignited debates, highlighting failures in prosecuting sexual predators due to fears of racism accusations.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer and other officials are under pressure to address these issues.

What's next: Addressing grooming gangs requires acknowledging the racial, cultural, and religious components and ensuring comprehensive action.

Political considerations must not overshadow the protection of women and children.

Society must confront these crimes head-on and prioritize justice for victims.

To read the full article, click here.

Hizb ut-Tahrir Cancels Pro-Caliphate Event in Canada

Overview: Hizb ut-Tahrir, a controversial Islamist group, cancels its pro-caliphate conference in Canada amidst public backlash and potential terror designation.

Why it matters: The event highlights the ongoing concerns about Islamist extremism and the group’s influence in Western nations.

Canadian authorities are considering listing Hizb ut-Tahrir as a terrorist entity, reflecting heightened awareness of extremist threats.

The group's ideology, advocating for a global Islamic caliphate, is antithetical to Canadian values and security.

Public and Political Reactions: Officials and public figures have spoken out against the event, emphasizing Canada’s commitment to opposing hate and divisive ideologies.

Mississauga and Hamilton mayors firmly opposed the event, stressing intolerance for hate-promoting activities.

Canadian Jewish organizations and global figures, like Martina Navratilova, have urged the government to act against the group.

What's next: The Canadian government is assessing Hizb ut-Tahrir’s threat level, with potential implications for future security policies.

A decision to ban the group could set a precedent in addressing extremist ideologies within Canada and beyond.

The move underscores the importance of vigilance and proactive measures against radicalization.

To read the full article, click here.

Further reading:

“The Tragic ISIS Comeback of 2025 Has Begun”
By: Michael Rubin
Will the Islamic State (ISIS) Re-Constitute? And Where? Get ready for the resurgence of the Islamic State, or what many call ISIS.

“Turkey Tries to Skirt F-35 Fighter Jet Ban”
By: Michael Rubin
Turkey’s pursuit of both Russian defense systems and American stealth fighters poses a grave threat to NATO’s security.

The Middle East is undergoing significant geopolitical shifts, with a new ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas and Turkey’s emergence as a key player amidst Iran's waning influence—a development that is strengthening radical Sunni forces in Syria. The West, meanwhile, grapples with entrenched Islamists from academe to post-industrial English towns. As these and other stories develop, we will bring you fresh analysis to keep you informed; stay tuned.

Sincerely,
Ahnaf Kalam
Digital Media Specialist
Middle East Forum

Was this edition useful?

Your responses are anonymous

Powered by