| | | | MEF Dispatch: Iran, Turkey, and the Fight for Syria's New Tomorrow By Ahnaf Kalam ● Dec 27, 2024 Smart Brevity® count: 4.5 mins...1145 words We open this edition of the Dispatch withMEF director Gregg Roman’s comprehensive strategy for fostering democratic transition in Iran, examining how empowering internal resistance could reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. Next, we examine Turkey’s two-pronged approach in post-Assad Syria, highlighting the implications for U.S. allies and regional power dynamics. We also analyze Turkish President Erdoğan’s provocative rhetoric on Jerusalem and its potential to disrupt Middle Eastern stability, while a closer look at al-Suwayda' reveals how local factions are carving a new path for governance after Assad’s fall. Finally, we explore Israel’s strategic pivot to counter the Houthis in Yemen, emphasizing the need for robust regional coalitions. | A Comprehensive Strategy for Democratic Transition in Iran By: Gregg Roman Iran remains the most destabilizing force in the Middle East, necessitating a comprehensive strategy for democratic transition and regional stability. Why it matters: Empowering Iranians to challenge their regime could lead to a significant shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics, aligning with U.S. interests in the region. Strategic context: Recent events, like the fall of Assad’s regime and ongoing internal protests, highlight Iran’s vulnerabilities and the opportunity for change. Amplifying internal pressures: U.S. support for grassroots opposition and secure communication technologies can strengthen internal dissent, undermining the regime’s control. Intensifying economic pressure: A focused effort to dismantle the IRGC’s financial empire and monitor oil transactions can significantly weaken Iran’s economic foundation. To read the full report by Gregg Roman, click here. | Assessing Turkish Intentions After Assad’s Regime Fall By: Jonathan Spyer With Assad’s regime toppled, Turkey is pursuing a two-sided strategy to consolidate control over Syria through its Sunni Islamist clients. Why it matters: Ankara’s actions could redefine regional power dynamics, impacting U.S. interests and allies, particularly the Syrian Kurds and Israel. Syrian National Army: Backed by Turkey, the SNA has launched offensives against the Kurdish-led SDF, raising concerns of ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses. Focus on the U.S.: Bipartisan U.S. legislation seeks to deter Turkey’s military advances, but political dynamics may shape Ankara’s strategies more than military interventions. Regional implications: Turkey’s success could embolden Sunni Islamist movements, challenging Israeli security and reshaping alliances in the Middle East. To read the full article, click here. | Erdoğan’s Demands on Jerusalem Could Raise Questions About Istanbul’s Sovereignty By: Michael Rubin Turkish President Erdoğan’s recent rhetoric on Jerusalem raises questions about Turkey’s respect for religious heritage and its geopolitical intentions. Why it matters: Erdoğan's stance could ignite regional tensions, challenging Israel's sovereignty over Jerusalem and questioning Turkey's stewardship of Istanbul. Erdogan’s rhetoric: His claims on Jerusalem echo historical ambitions and point to a broader regional strategy, potentially destabilizing existing geopolitical balances. Religious freedom concerns: While Israel ensures religious freedom in Jerusalem, Erdoğan’s policies in Istanbul, such as converting heritage sites into mosques, reflect a different narrative. Implications for the West: Western nations are urged to reassess Turkey's role and consider Istanbul's unique status, potentially redesignating diplomatic missions to reflect historical complexities. To read the full article, click here. | Factions of al-Suwayda’ After Assad’s Downfall: Interview By: Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi In the wake of Assad's downfall, the Druze province of al-Suwayda' played a pivotal role in dismantling the regime's control in southern Syria. Why it matters: The local factions in al-Suwayda', organized under a joint operations room, were crucial in the regime's collapse, illustrating the power of local resistance in shaping Syria's future. Local factions unite: The coalition, including Faz‘at Shabab al-Jabal and other local groups, took control of the region, prioritizing security and governance. Peace over conflict: Despite regional tensions, the factions in al-Suwayda' prefer a peaceful resolution, valuing stability over confrontation with Israel. A new governance model: The transition in al-Suwayda' highlights a shift towards local governance, with factions focusing on accountability and rebuilding the province. To read the full article, click here. | Israel Shifts Focus to Houthis, but It Needs Partners to Defeat Distant Foe By: Lazar Berman Israel shifts focus to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, aiming to counter their persistent missile attacks with a strategic coalition. Why it matters: The Houthis' continued aggression poses a significant challenge to Israel, demanding a coordinated response with regional partners to mitigate the threat. Houthi resilience: Despite intense airstrikes, the Houthis maintain their offensive, leveraging Yemen’s terrain and local support to withstand attacks. Need for coalition: Israel’s success depends on forming a robust coalition with the U.S. and Arab allies, similar to past efforts against Hezbollah. Strategic goals: Targeting Houthi leadership and disrupting smuggling routes are crucial for weakening their operational capabilities. To read the full article, click here. | Support MEF: Help Defend Western Values The time to act is now. Critical opportunities lie before us to shape policy, expose Islamist propaganda and strengthen our Middle East allies on the front lines of conflict. Your tax-deductible gift powers our mission to uncover extremist networks, transform public debate, and advance strategic policies through key partnerships. As global threats intensify, your support ensures we continue delivering measurable results. Will you help us protect the democratic principles that define our civilization? Click here to make a tax-deductible gift to the Middle East Forum. | Syrian Kurds Need a No-Fly Zone By: Michael Rubin The establishment of a no-fly zone over Syrian Kurdistan could protect against Turkish aggression and support regional stability. Why it matters: A no-fly zone would deter Turkish expansionism, ensuring the safety of Syrian Kurds and preventing further ethnic cleansing. Learning from history: The 1991 Iraqi Kurdistan no-fly zone provides a precedent, suggesting that international intervention can prevent humanitarian crises. International coalition: A coalition including the U.S., Jordan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia could enforce the zone, balancing Turkey’s regional ambitions and supporting Kurdish self-governance. Political implications: Establishing a no-fly zone reflects a commitment to countering radical Islamism and supporting moderate forces in the region. To read the full article, click here. | Further Reading: “Opportunistic Criticism of Assad: The Case of the Golan Front”
By: Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi
Following the fall of Assad’s regime, the narratives of resistance and Assad’s alliances with Iran and Hezbollah are shifting. “Syrians Welcome New Rulers’ Pledge of Moderation but Are Concerned about Extremists in Their Midst”
By: Sirwan Kajjo
With Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) gaining power in Syria after the fall of President Bashar al-Assad, many Syrians worry about the growing influence of extremist elements within the Islamist group. “Millions of Christians Are under Islamist Assault, so Pope Francis Targets the Jews”
By: Uzay Bulut and Charles Jacobs
Christians face persecution, discrimination, forced conversion and even mass murder for their faith in many parts of the Muslim world. Yet, Pope Francis calls for an investigation to see if the Jews are committing a “genocide” against Muslims in Gaza. | | From fostering democratic change in Iran to countering Turkey’s regional ambitions and addressing the Houthi threat, the analyses featured in this edition of the MEF Dispatch highlight opportunities to advance stability and protect U.S. interests. As the region evolves, the pursuit of strategic engagement with our allies and forceful actions against our adversaries remains more vital than ever.
Sincerely,
Ahnaf Kalam
Digital Media Specialist
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