Neo-Ottoman Turkey Threatens Israel and Regional Stability; Summer Middle East Quarterly

By Winfield Myers ● Jun 02, 2025

Smart Brevity^® count: 7.5 mins...2012 words

MEF has for years documented Turkey’s transformation from ally to enemy under its Islamist President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This issue features six articles examining Turkey’s growing threats—and some weaknesses. Jonathan Spyer analyzes Turkey’s expansionist dreams and sees a Turkish-Israeli contest as a “central regional dynamic” in the making. Michael Rubin warns that war between Turkey and Israel may be in the offing, and that the U.S. should war game the conflict to be ready for any eventuality.

Additional articles place the Kurdistan Workers’ Party’s (PKK) dissolution in context and speculate on what it means for the future of Qandil province in Iraqi Kurdistan, where control of over 60 Kurdish villages is now in question. Two articles dissect Turkey’s alliance with Pakistan, especially in light of last month’s India-Pakistan conflict. Turkey spreads Islamist extremism wherever it goes, including South Asia. Yet its once-heralded military drones proved utter failures, as India either destroyed them or they failed to reach their targets. Such are the fruits of nepotism and corruption, writes Michael Rubin: innovation stops where internal approval is guaranteed.

The Summer Middle East Quarterly is now out featuring articles on AI’s potential to smooth relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, the slaughter of Alawites in Syria, Iranian operatives in Scandinavia, and the Islamic Republic’s use of psychological warfare. Book reviews abound as well.

Neo-Ottoman Power: Erdoğan Positions Turkey as Israel’s Main Middle East Challenge

All current indications suggest that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is making notable advances in his effort to place Turkey at the center of regional strategic affairs. Shutterstock

By: Jonathan Spyer

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's aggressive regional maneuvers pose a direct threat to Israel's security and strategic interests.

Why it matters: Erdoğan's support for Islamist factions and his antagonistic stance towards Israel could destabilize the region, forcing Israel to face heightened security challenges.

Turkey's actions empower terrorist groups like Hamas, undermining Israel's efforts to maintain peace and security.

Driving the news: Erdoğan's latest meeting with Syrian interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa showcases Turkey's intent to strengthen anti-Israel alliances.

By facilitating the lifting of sanctions on Syria, Turkey is bolstering a regime that may align with Israel's adversaries.

The big picture: With the potential reduction of U.S. influence in the region, Israel must brace for increased Turkish aggression.

Erdoğan's expansionist policies threaten to reshape the Middle East power dynamics, challenging Israel's strategic alliances.

What's next: Israel needs to fortify its regional alliances and strategic partnerships to counter Turkey's growing influence.

It’s undeniable that the Turkish challenge is set to be central in the period ahead for all those elements, in the region and beyond it, who are opposed to political Islam and its advance.
The strategic and diplomatic contest between Israel and Turkey looks set to be one of the central regional dynamics in the period now opening up.

To read the full article, click here.

The U.S. Must War-Game an Israel-Turkey Conflict

The United States must recognize what once was unfathomable: a war between a NATO member and the Jewish state. Shutterstock

By: Michael Rubin

War games suggest that a military conflict between Israel and Turkey, once unthinkable, is now a possibility within a decade.

Why it matters: Turkey's increasing alliance with anti-Israel factions and its military ambitions pose a direct threat to regional stability and Israel's security.

The potential for conflict underscores the need for Washington to reassess its military sales and diplomatic strategies in the Middle East.

Driving the news: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's support for Hamas and aggressive regional policies challenge Israel's security landscape.

The revival of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter sale to Turkey raises concerns about the potential use of advanced U.S. weaponry against Israel.

The big picture: A conflict could involve complex military engagements, including missile strikes and naval battles in the Eastern Mediterranean.

The use of Syrian jihadi and ISIS veterans by Turkey, as seen in Nagorno-Karabakh, could exacerbate the threat to Israel.

What's next: A war between Israel and Turkey is no longer a distant possibility.

The question now is whether Washington can prevent it, what effect military sales might have upon its outcome, and whom the United States wants to win.

To read the full article, click here.

Turkish Cypriots: The Achilles’ Heel in Erdoğan’s Religious Strategy?

Recent protests were sparked by a decision allowing headscarves for schoolgirls under 18. Shutterstock

By: Nicoletta Kouroushi

Northern Nicosia is erupting in protests as Turkish Cypriots boldly resist Ankara’s attempt to impose religious governance, threatening Turkey's regional influence.

Why it matters: The mass protests underscore a critical backlash against Turkey's push for Islamization—a direct challenge to President Erdoğan's agenda and a warning sign of Turkey's declining sway in its own backyard.

This defiance is shaking Turkey's ideological foundations, spotlighting the limits of its religious-nationalist model even among dependent communities.

Driving the news: Over 10,000 Turkish Cypriots, backed by unions and civil groups, are rejecting Ankara's headscarf policy, signaling wider discontent with Turkey's dominance.

The protests reveal deep-seated resentment against Turkey's demographic engineering and ideological impositions, aimed at eroding secular values among Turkish Cypriots.

The big picture: This resistance could redefine diplomatic narratives, forcing international stakeholders to reconsider Turkish Cypriots as independent agents rather than proxies of Ankara.

For too long, international diplomacy about Cyprus has treated the Turkish Cypriot side as monolithic or indistinguishable from Turkey’s position.
The recent protests reveal a society with its own internal divisions, aspirations, and capacity for dissent. This distinction matters.

What's next: As Ankara grapples with this challenge, the international community must acknowledge and support Turkish Cypriots' fight for autonomy to foster a just and sustainable solution in Cyprus.

Recognizing their distinct identity could pave the way for new diplomatic strategies, challenging Turkey's unchecked influence in the region.

To read the full article, click here.

MEQ Summer 2025: Artificial Intelligence Emerges as Key to a Historic Israel–Saudi Thaw

The Summer 2025 edition of Middle East Quarterly delves into AI's potential in Saudi-Israel relations, Iran's subversion efforts, and the protection of Syria's Alawites.

Why it matters: The analyses provide a comprehensive view of Middle East dynamics, highlighting both innovative collaboration and security threats.

Driving the news: Doron Feldman and Ofir Barel discuss AI cooperation between Israel and Saudi Arabia as a potential catalyst for normalization, suggesting a shift towards moderation and innovation.

The big picture: Daniel Pipes warns of Sunni Islamist violence against Alawites in Syria, calling for preventive measures against potential genocide.

What's next: Magnus Norell explores Iranian intelligence operations in Scandinavia, urging cohesive strategies to counter this threat; Babak Taghvaee advocates for sanctions to curb Iran's psychological warfare. The edition also features critical book reviews and analyses on regional issues.

To read the press release and the issue, click here.

What Does the Dissolution of the PKK Mean for the Middle East?

A file photo of flags depicting a portrait of Abdullah Öcalan, founding member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), flying in Istanbul, Turkey. Shutterstock

By: Loqman Radpey

On May 12, 2025, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) announced its dissolution, urging a shift from armed conflict to the potential for democratic politics and Kurdish rights.

Why it matters: This pivotal moment could redefine Kurdish-Turkish relations and affect regional dynamics, challenging Turkey's expansionist policies under the guise of counterterrorism.

The disbandment raises questions about Turkey's continued military presence in Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq.

Driving the news: The PKK cites regional changes, like Syria's regime fall and Iran's retreat, as reasons to pursue peaceful resolutions.

However, the Turkish state’s harsh repression of Kurdish regions and the nature of the regime means it will never acknowledge past crimes or offer reparations.

The big picture: The PKK's dissolution could create space for illiberal movements to rise, with some Kurds disillusioned by Western democracies' perceived hypocrisy.

Ankara may see this as an opportunity to curb regional transformation and reinforce anti-Israel stances, impacting broader geopolitical landscapes.

What's next: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan likely views PKK disbandment as an opportunity to curb regional transformation and reinforce his anti-Israel posture.

If global and regional powers accept such shifts, they are effectively consenting to a transformation in the region that could have regional and global consequences, many of which will be detrimental not only to Kurdish aspirations but also for Western liberalism and progressive values.

To read the full article, click here.

Qandil’s Uncertain Future After the PKK’s Dissolution

Members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in the mountainous region of Qandil, Iraqi Kurdistan. Shutterstock

By: Sirwan Kajjo

The decision by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) to disband raises questions about the governance and stability of Qandil, the mountainous region in Iraqi Kurdistan along the Turkish border where the PKK has headquartered itself since the late 1990s.

Why it matters: The PKK's withdrawal opens a power vacuum in Qandil, potentially igniting competition between Kurdish political parties and altering regional dynamics.

The transition poses challenges for local governance, as the Kurdistan Regional Government may struggle to integrate Qandil's progressive systems with its tribal-based politics.

Driving the news: Residents of Qandil, accustomed to PKK-led democratic governance, face uncertainty as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) vie for influence.

The potential for renewed conflict looms, depending on how regional powers like Turkey and Iran react to the PKK's exit.

The big picture: The dissolution could shift the balance of power, with Baghdad eyeing greater control over the region, affecting the Kurdistan Regional Government's autonomy.

Any transition will require careful management to avoid escalating tensions between Erbil and Baghdad.

What's next: The international community must closely monitor Qandil's evolving situation, supporting peaceful governance transitions while acknowledging the complexities of regional politics.

Much like the dissolution of the PKK, addressing local governance in Qandil likely will prove to be a difficult task. Sometimes, signing a deal is the end of the beginning, rather than the beginning of the end.

To read the full article, click here.

Turkey Comes Out as Pakistan’s Ally

A file photo of the Pakistan Army’s Guard of Honor Battalion during a ceremony at the presidential palace. Shutterstock

By: Abhinav Pandya

Turkey's military support for Pakistan during the May 2025 conflict with India marks a dangerous escalation, fueling instability in the region.

Why it matters: Turkey's actions reveal its intent to undermine India's security and bolster Islamist extremism, echoing its disruptive involvement in the Middle East.

By aligning with Pakistan, Turkey is not just challenging India but also testing the resilience of regional peace and security.

Driving the news: Ankara's supply of advanced drones and military advisors to Pakistan during the conflict indicates a calculated move to strengthen its influence in South Asia.

Turkey's support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue aligns with its broader Islamist agenda, threatening India's sovereignty and regional stability.

The big picture: Turkey is employing a strategic playbook of supporting Islamist factions to extend its reach, mirroring its tactics in Gaza and beyond.

India's decision to cut Turkish contracts reflects a necessary reassessment of Turkey as a strategic threat.

What's next: India must urgently recalibrate its foreign policy to counter Turkey's provocations and secure its national interests.

Terror cells may continue to sit in Rawalpindi, but their planners soon may be sitting in Istanbul and Ankara.
Strengthening alliances with Greece, Armenia, and Israel is crucial to counter Turkey's expansionist agenda and ensure stability in South Asia.

To read the full article, click here.

Is Turkey’s Arms Industry a Loser in the India-Pakistan War?

Turkish President Erdoğan may offer a hard sale to promote his Islamist vision or simply to enrich his family, but the Bayraktar TB2 drone he is selling—shown above in Istanbul—is now subpar. Just as ...

By: Michael Rubin

Turkey's efforts to position itself as a military export power face setbacks as its flagship Bayraktar drones falter on the battlefield.

Why it matters: The underperformance of Turkish drones, notably in India-Pakistan conflict and other regions, challenges Turkey's credibility as a top-tier defense supplier.

These failures expose vulnerabilities in Ankara's defense strategy, potentially undermining its influence and ambitions in global arms markets.

Driving the news: Turkish drones failed to perform effectively in recent conflicts, including India's interception of Pakistan's Bayraktar drones.

Such setbacks highlight the risks for countries investing in Turkish military technology, questioning the reliability of Erdoğan's defense exports.

The big picture: Turkey's reliance on nepotism, with Baykar led by Erdoğan's son-in-law, compromised product quality.

Just as socialism stymies development as bureaucrats fail to adjust for competition, so too does nepotism ruin industries. Baykar, knowing it had full state support, simply stopped innovating effectively.

What's next: As Turkey grapples with these challenges, countries must reassess their defense partnerships and investments in Turkish technology.

The path forward requires Turkey to innovate and rebuild its reputation as a credible military supplier.

To read the full article, click here.

Thank you for your support and for relying on the Middle East Forum to help make sense of competing and often contradictory headlines. If you enjoyed this issue of the Dispatch, please forward it to a friend. We invite you to use the comments feature to let us know your thoughts on this issue.

Sincerely,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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MEF, an activist think tank, deals with the Middle East, Islamism, U.S. foreign policy, and related topics, urging bold measures to protect Americans and their allies. Pursuing its goals via intellectual and operational means, the Forum recurrently has policy ideas adopted by the U.S. government.

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