MEF Dispatch: Syria’s Shifting Battlefield and the Figh t Against Extremism

Syria’s Shifting Battlefield and the Fight Against Extremism

By Winfield Myers ● Dec 03, 2024

Smart Brevity® count: 6 mins...1590 words

Today’s MEF Dispatch continues our analysis of the situation in Syria with a series of articles examining its causes and implications. We’re reminded that despite the rapid advance of the rebels now in control of Aleppo in northwestern Syria, their success is by no means assured. The brutal Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad could fall—but neither it nor its Iranian allies are certain losers. That said, the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham now on the march has been building up its forces for years, and the current weakness of Iran and its proxies at the hands of Israel’s sustained attacks, plus the preoccupation of Assad’s patrons in Moscow with the Ukraine war, opened an envelope of opportunity the rebels decided they couldn’t pass up.

Yet these same advancing rebels—which, we learn, are divided into competing factions, each viewing the other’s motivations as insufficiently pure—operate thanks to their Turkish sponsors, who are engaged in an assault on the American-allied (and politically moderate) Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. This parallels Azerbaijan’s ethnic cleansing of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh; in both cases, religious and ethnic minorities suffer at the hands of stronger ethnic majorities.

In other news, we learn that Israel’s ceasefire with Hezbollah is a fatal blow to the once-high hopes of Hamas that its October 7 massacre would presage a final victory of Iran and its minions over the Jewish state. Instead, Hamas is being ground to dust as Hezbollah is significantly weakened. Yet the same ceasefire will likely allow Hezbollah to slowly rebuild itself, just as it did in the aftermath of the 2006 war. Israel is also advised to support the Kurds in this, their latest time of need, or risk losing their recently-bolstered reputation for action.

Finally, we hear from MEF Action about its latest plans to thwart and, ultimately, take down the Islamist charities that fund Hamas-supporting demonstrators right under our noses nationwide. What’s behind them? In part, Turkey and Qatar—our erstwhile “allies.”

ICYMI - "In Obscura: Adventures in the World of Intelligence” with Peter Theroux

Peter Theroux’s memoir, In Obscura, recalls the author’s journey from journalism and translation, to the CIA and the National Security Council, weaving through Damascus and Hollywood. Drawing parallels between the hidden lives of intelligence officers and stunt actors, he offers an eloquent nuts-and-bolts glimpse into realms where success requires invisibility. What can we learn from lives lived in the shadows? What has the author learned from his journey? What anecdotes is he free to recount?

Click here for a review by Daniel Pipes of In Obscura.

Peter Theroux has made an unusual set of career transitions from journalist (Wall Street Journal) to feature story writer (National Geographic) to book author (Translating LA) to translator from Arabic (Cities of Salt) to intelligence analyst (Central Intelligence Agency) to bureaucrat (Department of State) to policy advisor (National Security Council). Mr. Theroux holds a BA in English literature from Harvard University and studied at the American University in Cairo.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

Success for Syria’s Rebels Is Far from Guaranteed

Syrian Sunni Islamist fighters have taken control of Aleppo, marking a significant moment in Syria's ongoing conflict.

Why it matters: Aleppo's fall to rebels signals a shift in power dynamics. The city is a crucial commercial hub, and its capture challenges Assad's regime, highlighting its vulnerabilities.

Rebel Advances: The Turkey-backed fighters have capitalized on the Assad regime's weaknesses, but their progress into Hama province was halted by regime forces. This showcases the fluctuating control in the region.

Strategic Implications: Despite their gains, the rebels face challenges as Assad retains some power with external support from Russia and Iran. The conflict's outcome remains uncertain as external forces continue to play a decisive role.

To read the full article, click here.

Rebels in Syria Take Advantage of Israel’s Successes Against a Weakened Iran Axis

Syrian rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, have captured Aleppo, capitalizing on the weakened state of Iran and its proxies.

Why it matters: The rebel offensive highlights the vulnerabilities in the Iran-Hezbollah axis, which has been overstretched due to recent conflicts involving Israel. This could signal a broader uprising against Tehran's influence in the region.

Strategic Shift: Israel's military successes against Hezbollah have indirectly facilitated the rebel advancements. The reduction in Iranian-backed forces in Syria has allowed the rebels to exploit the strategic gap and push forward.

Potential Outcomes: While the current gains are significant, the stability of the region remains uncertain. Rebels need broader support to maintain momentum, and the response from Iran, Russia, and Assad will shape the future landscape.

To read the full article, click here.

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham vs. ‘Fajr al-Hurriya’ Operations Room

The recent insurgent offensive in northwest Syria highlights the lack of unity among rebel factions, despite dramatic advances.

Why it matters: The division between Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the “Dawn of Freedom” operations room underscores the challenges of achieving a cohesive strategy among Syria’s insurgent groups. This fragmentation could affect the stability of newly acquired territories and the overall success of the insurgency.

Current Dynamics: HTS leads the “Deterring the Aggression” campaign, which governs territories through the Salvation Government, while 'Dawn of Freedom,' backed by the Syrian National Army, competes for control and influence.

Tensions Emerge: A statement from “Dawn of Freedom” condemns HTS for aggressive conduct, revealing deep-seated tensions and highlighting the struggle for dominance among insurgent factions.

To read the full article, click here.

Israel Sends Iraqi Gov’t into Panic with Letter to U.N. Security Council

Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar's letter to the U.N. Security Council has sparked panic in Iraq, highlighting tensions with pro-Iranian militias.

Why it matters: The letter underscores Israel's right to self-defense and calls out Iraq for militia activities targeting Israel, causing a sudden shift in militia deployments in Iraq.

Regional Dynamics: The Iraqi government's response, describing itself as a "cornerstone of stability," contrasts with the reality of militia control, revealing Iran's influence in Iraq's political landscape.

Strategic Implications: The decline in militia attacks on Israel shows the effectiveness of Israel's warnings, but also highlights the limitations of Iran's regional strategy when faced with conventional military threats.

To read the full article, click here.

It’s ‘Put Up or Shut Up’ Time for Israel on Kurdistan

Israel's Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar's recent remarks about strengthening ties with the Kurds highlight a pivotal moment for Israeli foreign policy.

Why it matters: The Kurds, long seen as natural allies, are facing existential threats from Turkey's military actions. Israel's response could redefine regional alliances and its role as a protector of minority groups.

Historical Context: Past alliances between Israel and the Kurds have been strategic, yet fraught with geopolitical complexities. The legacy of broken promises, like Henry Kissinger's in 1975, looms large in current considerations.

Strategic Implications: Israel must decide whether to support the Kurds militarily or risk appearing insincere. Supporting the Kurds could counter Turkish aggression but involves significant diplomatic risks.

To read the full article, click here.

Israel’s Ceasefire with Hezbollah Is a Terminal Blow to the Hopes of Hamas

The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah ends a prolonged conflict but does not signify a decisive victory for either side.

Why it matters: The ceasefire disrupts Hamas's expectations of a broader conflict involving Iran and its proxies, leaving them isolated. This development shifts strategic calculations in the region.

Hezbollah's Setback: Hezbollah's decision to cease hostilities indicates a significant setback, as their initial aims remain unfulfilled. The group's infrastructure and leadership have suffered considerable losses.

Future Implications: Despite the ceasefire, Hezbollah remains a powerful force in Lebanon. The potential for rebuilding with Iranian support suggests this could be a temporary pause before future tensions escalate again.

To read the full article, click here.

MEF Action Director Targets Islamist Funding

Middle East Forum Action Director Ben Baird talked with Jim Hanson about MEF’s plans to take down Islamist charities funneling money to help terrorists expose the funders and organizers of the Hamas mobs around the country, and show how Qatar and Turkey are spending millions to influence U.S. policy.

To watch the full segment, click here.

War in the Middle East is, unfortunately, never surprising in and of itself. The shock comes from where it breaks out, and when. The ongoing fighting in Syria may or may not topple the murderous regime in Damascus, but it reminds us of the complex international alliances (some hanging from the thinnest of threads) behind the fighting. Everyone, it seems, seeks to influence events in the region to their own advantage. As the fighting in Syria advances, and as the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah holds—or doesn’t—we will keep you informed with informed, up-to-date analyses by our writers. We’ll be back in touch soon.

Sincerely,
Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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