MEF Dispatch: What Just Happened?; Iran's Proxy Strategy Meets Its Limits

What Just Happened?; Iran's Proxy Strategy Meets Its Limits

By Winfield Myers ● Jun 30, 2025

Smart Brevity® count: 9 mins...2451 words

Daniel Pipes asks “What Just Happened?” during the Twelve-Day War. Of the many surprises, he details twelve that “stand out, one marking each day” of the conflict. Those twelve days “should have repercussions long into the future.” As the dust clears from the war, Michael Rubin argues that the “greatest problem right now is not what happened to the facilities at Fordow, but what escaped them.” Still, he says, “the end of the Islamic Republic’s nuclear fantasy has arrived.”

Jonathan Spyer writes that the war has demonstrated the unraveling of the late Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’s Quds Force leader Qassem Soleimani’s plan for countering Israel through a network of proxies. Not only did Israel pummel the proxies after the October 7, 2023, attacks, but once the Jewish state attacked Iran directly, not a single proxy came to Iran’s support.

We also feature Jim Hanson’s recent Fox News interview on whether Iran will attempt to rebuild its nuclear program, plus the work of Mardo Soghom and a second article by Michael Rubin.

ICYMI – “Evangelicals and Islamism: Shifting Dynamics” with A.J. Nolte

For decades, evangelical Christianity championed Israel and religious freedom. As a result, it often found itself clashing with supremacist strands of Islam. Deep concern over Christian persecution—largely in Muslim-majority countries post-Soviet collapse—fueled wariness of political Islam’s aggressive forms. Recently, things have begun to shift. Some evangelical institutions in the US have begun to embrace woke ideologies, softening their stance on Islamism. Meanwhile, as evangelicalism wanes in the U.S. it is surging in the global south. There, Christians face radical Islam head-on, and staunchly pro-Israel positions remain in the ascendant. This shift is shaping new dynamics. In Iran, for example, evangelicals are quietly building the underground church’s strength, and hoping for the fall of the regime. How will these trends reshape evangelical engagement with Islam and global Christianity’s future?

Andrew J. “A.J.” Nolte, Ph.D., is the director of the M.A. in International Development, M.A. in Government, Ph.D. in Government, and the Israel Institute, and an associate professor at Regent University. He previously served as an adjunct professor of politics at Messiah College (2013–2017) and taught at George Washington University, Catholic University of America, and National Defense University. His research focuses on political Islam and high modernism in state-formation processes, particularly in Turkey and Indonesia. He holds a Ph.D. and M.A. in politics from Catholic University of America.

To watch the full podcast episode, click here.

What Just Happened? A Twelve-Day War’s Twelve Surprises

Israel's June 13 attack on Iran has ignited a series of events that are reshaping the geopolitical landscape, with twelve standout occurrences marking the Twelve-Day War.

Why it matters: This conflict has set a new benchmark in U.S. foreign policy and reinforced Israel's strategic dominance in the Middle East.

Trump's audacious approach seems to signal a shift towards more aggressive American tactics on the global stage. To a remarkable extent, his efforts worked. Is this a one-time fluke or a sign of things to come?

The big picture: Trump has asserted unprecedented influence, disrupting norms and redefining U.S. involvement in international conflicts.

No other outside government had meaningful influence over the Israel-Iran confrontation. Trump’s outsized personality sidelined the world. Most notably, Beijing and Moscow offered Tehran only the thin gruel of verbal support.

Alarmists made the wrong predictions. Ahead of time, wild prophecies emerged about the consequences of a U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.

In fact, not a single American died in combat, the Hormuz Straits remained open, fighting stayed confined, and financial markets by June 24 had bounced back to their June 12 levels. Will isolationist fear-mongering finally be discredited?

By the numbers: Israel's air power has shattered traditional warfare conventions, proving superior to ground forces.

This strategic use of air strikes is revolutionizing military doctrine, setting a precedent for future conflicts.

Will this exception lead to an over-emphasis on air power?

The intrigue: Tehran only pretended to fight Israel and the United States so it could compliment itself on winning a great victory. This round featured a theatrical attack on an American base in Qatar.

Will the Iranian populace accept this blatant deceit or use it as a cudgel against their rulers?

To read the full article, click here.

Will Iran Try to Rebuild Its Nuclear Program?

Jim Hanson, MEF Chief Strategist, delivered a decisive analysis on FOX News about the recent strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and the strategic roadmap ahead.

Why it matters: The strikes shattered Iran's nuclear infrastructure, yet the regime's determination to rebuild persists.

President Trump has unequivocally demonstrated the U.S.'s readiness to deploy its full power to thwart further nuclear pursuits.

The big picture: Israel's superior intelligence pinpointed critical targets, crippling Iran's nuclear ambitions and reshaping the regional power dynamic.

The elimination of top Iranian nuclear scientists has severely disrupted Tehran's plans.

What’s next: The U.S. and its allies must ensure Iran permits inspections to assess the full impact of the strikes.

Trump is prepared to intensify "maximum pressure" through strategic economic sanctions if Iran refuses to comply.

The intrigue: These developments could stir dissent within Iran, challenging the regime's grip on power.

In the long and even medium term, the regime is in grave danger of being taken down from inside.

To watch the full segment, click here.

Waiting for the Dust to Clear After U.S. Strikes

Trump declared that the U.S. bombing of Iran’s nuclear sites did "Monumental Damage," but the situation is likely more complex.

Why it matters: Conflicting narratives have emerged, with Trump hailing obliteration while intelligence reports suggest significant portions of Iran's nuclear infrastructure remain intact.

The Defense Intelligence Agency's (DIA) "low confidence" assessment suggests that someone at the DIA released it quickly in order to counterintuitively undermine its conclusions, as the leaker likely wanted to play politics and write the first draft of history.

The big picture: Yet, the strikes have undeniably set back Iran's nuclear aspirations.

Sealing tunnels and ventilation shafts with bombs not only set the program back months if not years, but this also raises dust clouds that transform the sterility of cascade halls from levels expected in hospital intensive care units to those found in a hoarder’s garage.

What’s next: The greatest problem right now is not what happened to the facilities at Fordow but what escaped them. While the Israelis believe that much of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile is buried under rubble and collapsed tunnels, hundreds of kilograms nevertheless remain unaccounted for.

Ultimately, any campaign to address Iran’s nuclear program goes beyond military strikes to the complete removal of the program, including the dismantling of nuclear facilities that cannot safely be blown up.

The intrigue: Eventually, Iran will surrender its program or targeted bombing will end the regime. Either way, Iran will lose its capability.

To read the full article, click here.

Help the Iranian People Resist Iran's Regime

Join the next phase of the Middle East Forum’s Maximum Pressure Campaign Series by asking Congress to pass the Maximum Support Act.

Americans must rally behind the Iranian people after the 12-Day War, where U.S. and Israeli forces dismantled Iran’s nuclear program. Now, we must help Iranians forge a democratic future, free from their oppressive regime.

Fill out the form to send emails to your House member and senators urging them to sponsor and pass H.R. 2614 - the Maximum Support Act.

The Maximum Support Act is a bipartisan bill that empowers Iranians by ensuring internet freedom with Virtual Private Networks, satellite-to-cell tech, digital eSIMs, and anti-surveillance tools to bypass regime censorship. It also establishes a strikers’ fund, using seized regime assets to support workers striking against oppression, and provides humanitarian aid and medical supplies to protesters. This legislation strengthens Iran’s grassroots movement for democracy while countering the regime’s global repression.

You can help make this happen! Urge Congress to pass the Maximum Support Act by filling out the form and clicking submit to send emails to your Congress members. Act now to support a free, democratic Iran and amplify the voices of its people!

To tell Congress to pass the Maximum Support Act, click here.

The Limits of Iran’s Proxy Strategy: How Soleimani’s Vision Failed in Recent Conflicts

In a dramatic turn of events, Iran's elaborate strategy to dominate the Middle East is unraveling, revealing the limits of its proxy network.

Why it matters: The recent conflict has exposed the Achilles' heel of Iran's power play—its proxies, once thought to be its strength, are now its glaring weakness.

Qassem Soleimani, the late commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) Quds Force, envisioned a unified force, but his dream vanished as these groups prioritize their own interests over Tehran's commands.

Soleimani was assassinated by a U.S. drone attack ordered by President Trump in January 2020.

The big picture: In the useful phrasing of one Lebanese analyst, Soleimani’s idea was to insert a kind of Iranian-controlled “deep state” into the body of an existing state.

The intention was that this deep state would eventually become better armed and better organized than the state itself, while remaining under the control of, and dependent on, its Iranian masters.

What’s next: For many years, it had been assumed that the various militias had been assembled and developed for precisely the moment when Iran came under attack by Israel and possibly the U.S.

Yet when Israel attacked Iran and the U.S. later joined in, all the proxies elected, without exception, to stay out of the fight.

The intrigue: The echoes of historical ideological breakdowns now threaten to reshape the very fabric of Middle Eastern politics.

Iran's stranglehold is slipping, and the regional power balance is in flux, demanding swift recalibration.

To read the full article, click here.

Announcing MEF’s Junior Fellowship Program

The Middle East Forum is calling for applications to its Junior Fellowship program, open to emerging scholars, journalists, and analysts.

This program provides a unique platform for participants to enhance their skills, share innovative ideas, and build networks among experts focused on the Middle East and Islamism.

Participants benefit from mentorship, contribute to MEF publications, and engage in talks and podcasts.

The program supports skill development and offers networking opportunities with leading scholars.

Program details: The fellowship runs from September through June, with a stipend of $1,500.

Mentorship: Fellows are paired with experienced staff or senior fellows for guidance and feedback.

Virtual meetings: Monthly sessions with MEF staff and mentors.

Hybrid model: Offers both on-site and remote work options based on participant location.

To apply: The deadline is July 15, with the program starting on September 1.

Send a cover letter and resume to juniorfellows@meforum.org.

The selection process also involves a writing assignment and a virtual interview.

For more information, click here.

Are Reformists Trying to Trick the West and Save the Islamic Republic?

Israel’s twelve-day air campaign against the core institutions of Iran’s Islamic regime appears to have triggered a serious political power vacuum—the first of its kind since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979.

Why it matters: Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei remains secluded in a bunker, while Israel's strikes have decimated the senior leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Inside Iran and across the diaspora, debate is underway over how this existential crisis might unfold—and whether it marks the beginning of the end for Khamenei and the regime.

The big picture: As uncertainty grips Iran, the prospect of a second Israeli offensive looms, stoking fears and speculation across media and political circles.

One analyst warned of a “second war,” calling for comprehensive national preparedness, reform of political structures, mobilization of social and intellectual capital, and the strengthening of preventive diplomacy.

What’s next: At this point, Iranian analysts and journalists are uncertain whether Khamenei remains in control of the situation. In his most recent video message from the bunker, the 86-year-old cleric appeared fatigued and somewhat disoriented, struggling to deliver his usual rhetoric—a stark contrast to his typically forceful oratory.

Some so-called “reformist” circles in Iran have begun to float the idea that former President Hassan Rouhani could succeed Khamenei. But there is sustained opposition to his ascendancy from both regime opponents and religious hardliners.

The intrigue: Iranians are on guard. It remains an open question whether Western diplomats who are either prone to wishful thinking or project their own values on Iranian regime officials will be as astute.

To read the full article, click here.

Get Ready for Assassinations in Iraqi Kurdistan

There is a cost to allowing wounded dictators to survive. Already, the Islamic Republic’s death squads fan out across Iran to arrest, try, and execute scores of Iranians whom they accuse of helping the Mossad.

Why it matters: The Iranian regime's crackdown, including rounding up Jews and targeting Kurds, reveals desperate measures to quash dissent and perceived threats.

Reports now suggest that security forces are rounding up and detaining Iran’s Jews.

Tehran's fury is now directed at the Kurdish leadership, perceived as complicit in Israeli operations.

The big picture: Iraqi Kurdistan is a hotbed of international espionage. Erbil 2025 is like Casablanca 1941. Foreign intelligence agencies—Iranians, Turks, Israelis, Saudis, British, Americans, and more—operate freely and often trip over each other.

The Mossad presence that was once an irritant for the Quds Force and Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence is now an existential threat to the regime.

With senior military officials killed, Iran seeks revenge, eyeing Kurdish leaders like Masrour Barzani and the Talabani brothers. They should be worried.

What’s next: The specter of assassination looms as Iran looks to send a chilling message to its Kurdish neighbors.

This power play could recalibrate the region's dynamics, forcing Kurdish leaders to reassess alliances with the West.

The intrigue: President Donald Trump imposed a ceasefire but did not understand its costs. True, he can resume bombing Iranian nuclear sites or leadership if Iranian officials do not forfeit their nuclear program, but for Kurdistan’s current leaders, that may be too late.

To read the full article, click here.

Further Reading:

Will Iran Face a Syria-Style Regime Change?
By: Loqman Radpey
The Islamic Republic may be standing on ground as unstable as the regimes it once helped to topple.

The Damascus Church Bombing and the Failure to Protect Syria’s Christians
By: Nicoletta Kouroushi
The international silence in this case raises questions about the consistency of Western commitments to religious freedom.

Understanding India’s Dilemma in the Israel-Iran War
By: Abhinav Pandya
India’s apparent strategic autonomy may frustrate its allies, but it emanates from myriad sources.

We hope you’re enjoying our coverage of the war and its aftermath. If you found this useful to understanding the conflict, please forward it to a friend. And please use the comments section to let us know your opinion.

Thank you,

Winfield Myers
Managing Editor, Middle East Forum
Director, Campus Watch

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