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| Friday, November 1, 2024 |
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| Week 9 Beyond the Box Score episode: |
| Guest -- Dave Richard of FFT |
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| Midseason updates -- Touchdown variance |
| Touchdowns can be pretty random. Fantasy points can be extremely random, just ask Scott Barrett and George Pickens. So, today, I did my best to detail what has happened in Fantasyland when it comes to touchdowns affecting the final PPR point totals that we've been given. |
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| Alright, you have an idea of which running backs are playing the most in the red zone as well as who has seen the most scoring opportunities. Let's now compare that to which running backs have actually been scoring touchdowns. |
| TD Leaders at RB |
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| To me, De'Von Achane, Breece Hall, and Aaron Jones were the names that stood out. Of course, Najee Harris does as well. You could trade for him, I suppose. He's playing well lately. The upcoming schedule is brutal, capped off by a Fantasy playoff stretch run that looks like this: |
| Najee Harris' schedule in Weeks 15-17: |
@ PHI
@ BAL
vs. KC |
| As far as Hall, maybe you can still trade for him at a reasonable price. Braelon Allen recently scored a red zone touchdown. The Jets have a great remaining schedule. I don't feel much confidence in the offense, but Hall looks like a clear top-five Fantasy RB rest of season. |
| I worry about Aaron Jones being able to sustain health for two-plus months without a bye week, but it sure would be awesome if he were able to. He looks like a top-12 Fantasy RB on a weekly basis for as long as he's healthy enough to handle the workload that Minnesota is trusting him with. |
| Raheem Mostert scored two goal line touchdowns in Week 8, so the red zone split between the two Miami backs will be something to monitor going forward. It has mostly been an even split in the past when both have been healthy. And we know Achane is capable of turning any given touch into a trip to the end zone. He still feels like one of the most undervalued Fantasy RB on the board. |
| TD Leaders at WR |
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| Ja'Marr Chase leads the WR position in touchdowns (7), and only two have come from in the red zone. |
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| TD Leaders at TE |
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| Trey McBride's one touchdown was a recovered fumble. |
| Red zone target share leaders |
| End zone target share leaders |
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| Target rate changes over the past month |
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| Some of these are probably random. I'm not making much of anything about the fact that the TPRR rates have dropped for D.J. Moore, Ladd McConkey, Tyreek Hill, or Amon-Ra St. Brown. I have my eye on Jake Ferguson. He is dependent on target volume for Fantasy relevancy. Michael Pittman's target rates surely coincide with his back injury. The TPRR dips for the Giants receivers makes sense as the entire offense has become less functional following the injury to left tackle Andrew Thomas. As we've seen Mark Andrews become more of a priority lately, Isaiah Likely's rates have been negatively affected. |
| Alright, I have one more midseason update to leave you with: I made a dope thread highlighting some of the players whose target per route run rates have risen the most from 2023 to 2024. You can find the link to that below. |
| Target rate changes from 2023 to 2024 |
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| Thread link |
| Thank you for reading! And please, do check out Beyond the Boxscore on FFT! Dan and I put a lot of work into that podcast project and aim to make it fun and accessible for any level of NFL fan! |
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