Mixed Signals in New Home Construction Data

While this technically signals some cooling in new construction potential, it wasn't much more of a drop than investors expected. Moreover, there has been a gradual cooling trend intact for more than 2 years. That's not as ominous as it sounds considering construction activity is still higher than it was in mid-2019. Housing starts, which measure groundbreakings for new home construction, actually came in just slightly higher than forecasts, barely declining month-over-month. Here too, there is a general cooling trend over the past few years, but a flatter trend over the past few months. Housing completions are a different story. They never experienced the same correction as starts and permits. They may have dropped from last month's high (highest level since 2007), but completions have been in a decisive uptrend since the middle of 2023 and a broad uptrend since 2011. Here's the bigger-picture context for construction:

October 18, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Mixed Signals in New Home Construction Data While this technically signals some cooling in new construction potential, it wasn't much more of a drop than investors expected. Moreover, there has been a gradual cooling trend intact for more than 2 years. That's not as ominous as it s... (read more) MBS Commentary Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday Waiting Game Returns With Straightforward, Sleepy Friday Bonds were technically a hair weaker in the overnight session, but even if they never improved from those levels, yields still would have been inside t... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Mostly Steady This Week After Uneventful Friday There hasn't been much day to day movement in mortgage rates after the big jump caused by the jobs report earlier in the month. That jump ended on Monday the 7th and the average 30yr fixed rate hasn't moved more than 0.06% since then. For... (read more) Rob Chrisman Digital LOS, Marketing Automation, Realtor Strategy Tools; FHA and VA News; Partner Opportunity A while back I parked my car outside a government office building in Sacramento. "Sir, you can't park here," said a cop. "This is where our politicians work." "Don't worry, I've locked it." Here at the Banner Bank sales conference in Vancouver, someo... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.68% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.68% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.13% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.55% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.14% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 10/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.07% -0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.44% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.63% +0.22 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 10/17 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.03 0.57 15 Yr. Fixed 5.47% +0.05 0.52 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.47% +0.06 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.49 +0.04 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.49 +0.04 UMBS 5.5 100.12 +0.03 GNMA 5.0 98.88 +0.14 GNMA 5.5 100.28 +0.09 Pricing as of: 10/18 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.0760 -0.0160 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.947 -0.027 5 YR Treasury 3.874 -0.028 7 YR Treasury 3.969 -0.019 10 YR Treasury 4.076 -0.016 30 YR Treasury 4.386 +0.003 Pricing as of: 10/18 5:31PM EST Latest Video Housing market is very confusing for the consumer, says HousingWire's Logan... Single-family housing starts jump 2.7% in September John Paulson: A lot of economic growth is due to deficit spending Earnings expectations are way too low and markets will swing higher, says H... Around the Web Marketwatch 10-year Treasury yield slips from highest since July after housing starts drop Marketwatch New-home construction falls in September Eye on Housing Single-Family Starts Trend Higher in September CNBC The commercial real estate recovery is on, but the rebound may be uneven Calculated Risk Blog 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September CNBC Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Tracking: Just Over 3% CNBC IMF chief warns 'not yet time to celebrate' as low growth and high debt weigh on global economy Eye on Housing Declines for Residential Construction Loans Marketwatch U.S. business inventories expand for fifth straight month in August, bolstering economic outlook CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors digest data indicating economic resilience Eye on Housing Builder Confidence Edges Higher Despite Affordability Headwinds Marketwatch Philadelphia Fed's factory gauge jumps in October

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