Month/Quarter-End Came Early

Month/Quarter-End Came Early As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to yesterday. That means Thursday's reaction to GDP/Claims may have been a bit overdone. In the absence of month-end, it would likely have been a large, in-range correction but not one that tested the range so aggressively. As for today, a friendly response to as-expected PCE inflation left bonds modestly stronger with little fanfare after the morning hours. Econ Data / EventsCore PCE Price Index0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, 0.4 prev Core PCE (y/y)4.6 vs 4.7 f'cast, 4.7 prev Consumer Sentiment64.4 vs 63.9 f'cast, 59.2 prev Market Movement Recap08:59 AM Flat in Asia. Slightly weaker in Europe. Rallying in domestic trading. 10yr down 1.5bps at 3.827. MBS up an eighth. 01:25 PM Modest gains continue. MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 10yr down 3bps at 3.811. 04:02 PM Another flat afternoon. MBS up an eighth. 10yr down 2.3bps at 3.819.

June 30, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Month/Quarter-End Came Early Month/Quarter-End Came Early As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to y... (read more) Rob Chrisman HELOC, Appraisal Fee Analysis, Database Analysis and Broker Knowledge Products; Primer on Recessions We’re halfway through 2023 already. Time flies. It doesn’t seem that long ago when I was a kid and I had to learn how to make my own bowl of cereal with milk. Now there are instructions. Talk about the dumbing down of the population. I don’t know if ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.02% -0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.02% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.42% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.87% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.95% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.42% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.71% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/29 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.64 15 Yr. Fixed 6.23% -0.03 0.69 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.91% +0.11 0.69 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/28 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.17 -0.23 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.17 -0.23 UMBS 6.0 100.73 -0.05 GNMA 5.5 99.19 -0.23 GNMA 6.0 100.48 -0.09 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8390 -0.0030 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.900 +0.037 5 YR Treasury 4.154 +0.023 7 YR Treasury 3.998 +0.016 10 YR Treasury 3.839 -0.003 30 YR Treasury 3.865 -0.034 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:31PM EST Latest Video Mortgage rates falling and time will spur movement in housing market, says ... Key Fed inflation measure shows prices rose just 0.3% in May Final read on June consumer sentiment revised to 64.4 for second-best print... Newly built home sales grew while existing pending sales plummeted in May Around the Web CNBC House hunting is no picnic. Guess what? It's about to get harder CNBC Key Fed inflation measure shows prices rose just 0.3% in May Calculated Risk Blog PCE Measure of Shelter Finally Slowing YoY Eye on Housing Property Tax Assessments and Revenue: Catching Up to Home Valuesand Quickly Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in May; Up 0.4% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Decrease to 239,000 CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors look to key inflation report Federal Reserve Powell, Financial Stability and EconomicDevelopments Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Down Slightly YoY; New Listings Down 29% YoY CNBC First quarter economic growth was actually 2%, up from 1.3% first reported in major GDP revision Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Around 2% CNBC Swedens krona hits new record low as central bank hikes and plays down currency intervention CNBC European markets set to open slightly higher; traders await key inflation data

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