Mortgage Applications Slide, but Pending Home Sales Beat Expectations

Today brought 2 new scheduled data releases for the housing market. Both were fairly logical given the variables in play. So far in 2022, one of the most obvious and troublesome variables for the mortgage market has been the historically rapid rate spike. Average 30yr rates are now at levels not seen since 2009. Big rate spikes don't always affect the purchase market in the same way, but the reaction in terms of refinance applications is highly correlated. As such, it's no surprise to see this morning's application data from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Purchase applications are also at their lowest levels since the early days of the pandemic, but still at stronger levels relative to the previous 10+ years. While interest rates are weighing on purchases to some extent, it's hard to say how much of the blame they deserve compared to the general cooling effect following the frenzied pace seen in much of 2020-2021. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) concurs on the cooling. Today's report on Pending Home Sales was slightly stronger than economists expected, falling only 1.2% from last month compared to a median forecast calling for a 1.6% drop. But that is the 5th straight month of declines. Here too, outright levels are as low as they've been since the initial months of the pandemic. "The falling contract signings are implying that multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity."

April 27, 2022 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Housing News Mortgage Applications Slide, but Pending Home Sales Beat Expectations Today brought 2 new scheduled data releases for the housing market. Both were fairly logical given the variables in play. So far in 2022, one of the most obvious and troublesome variables for the mortgage market has been the historically ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Market Volatility Mortgage rates are most directly affected by trading levels in the bond market--specifically those of mortgage-backed securities or MBS. It was a somewhat volatile and generally weaker day for the bond market, but that weakness was far more app... (read more) MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags In the bigger picture, the absence of any new rally momentum this morning meant that bonds were likely not quite ready to make any big decisions without seeing u... (read more) Rob Chrisman Audit, Non-QM, DPA Products; FHA, VA News; Apps Continue Downward Spiral Change is mandatory. Progress is optional. Are signing bonuses a sign of progress? Perhaps not, and more a continued sign of the competitive times. “A $1 Million Salesperson Signing Bonus is Not a Growth Strategy” is worth a skim. Today’s podcast int... (read more) Mortgage Rates Mortgage Rates Only Modestly Higher Despite Market Volatility 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.30% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 5.30% +0.02 0.40 15 Yr. Fixed 4.72% +0.01 0.40 30 Yr. FHA 4.88% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.51% +0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 4.20% 0.00 0.50 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/27 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 4.72% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 5.11% +0.11 0.80 15 Yr. Fixed 4.38% +0.21 0.80 5/1 Yr. ARM 3.75% +0.06 0.30 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/21 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 5.37% +0.17 0.67 15 Yr. Fixed 4.68% +0.24 0.80 30 Yr. Jumbo 4.89% +0.13 0.47 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/27 MBS / Treasuries MBS Live Recap: MBS Outperform as Treasuries Hit Several Snags UMBS 30YR 4.0 99.78 -0.34 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 4.0 99.78 -0.34 UMBS 4.5 101.81 -0.44 GNMA 4.0 100.36 -0.23 GNMA 4.5 101.98 -0.38 Pricing as of: 4/27 5:21PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 2.8299 +0.1018 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 2.593 +0.112 5 YR Treasury 2.830 +0.091 7 YR Treasury 2.858 +0.104 10 YR Treasury 2.830 +0.102 30 YR Treasury 2.917 +0.082 Pricing as of: 4/27 5:21PM EST Latest Video Mortgage demand hits lowest level since 2018 as rates hit 13-year high Mortgage refinancing demand drops 70% from a year ago We're at peak inflation and 'peak fear,' says Leuthold Group's Jim Paulsen The 9am Bond Report - April 27, 2022 Around the Web CNBC Adjustable-rate mortgage demand doubles as interest rates hit the highest since 2009 Calculated Risk Blog HVS: Q1 2022 Homeownership and Vacancy Rates CNBC Real estate inventory plummets in South Florida, but the luxury markets are hotter than ever Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Decreased 1.2% in March CNBC Home prices jumped nearly 20% in February, but slowdown may be coming, S&P Case-Shiller says Calculated Risk Blog Housing and Demographics Calculated Risk Blog Comments on February Case-Shiller and FHFA House Price Increases; New Record Monthly Increase Calculated Risk Blog New Home Sales decrease to 763,000 Annual Rate in March Eye on Housing Homeownership Rate Stable at 65.4% Eye on Housing Builders Profit Margins Fall as Balance Sheets Grow CNBC Treasury yields dip, with focus on Covid outbreak in China and fears of economic slowdown Reuters Euro hits 5-year low, stocks down again on mixed earnings CNBC Senate confirms Lael Brainard as Fed vice chair

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