Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spending cuts in the spending bill.  Rates care about fiscal spending because higher spending requires higher Treasury issuance which, in turn, pushes rates higher, all else equal. Although the House passed the bill early this morning, financial markets were already fairly well braced for the impact. Now that the Senate is saying the bill likely won't reach the President's desk until late Summer, markets are able to pause and reflect.  One conclusion that some investors are coming to is that yields on US Treasuries are increasingly attractive as they move up through the 4% range (and in the case of 30yr bonds, the 5% range). When investors buy more bonds, it puts downward pressure on rates. As far as today was concerned, it didn't amount to much in terms of movement versus yesterday. The average lender is just a hair lower, but still over 7% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios.
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May 22, 2025
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Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates hit their highest level in just over 3 months yesterday with financial markets generally protesting the absence of more serious spending cuts in the spending bill.  Rates care about fiscal spending because higher spending requires... (read more)
MBS Commentary
The most significant development of the overnight session was the early morning passage of the spending bill in the House. This resulted in only a modest extension of losses in stocks/bonds, mostly because stocks/bonds (mostly bonds) have been pricin... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
Yesterday I headed west from the conference while my son Robbie headed south to the nCino nSight event. But while in Manhattan Dawn S. asked me, “How do you know if there’s a vegan at your party?” Answer: “They’ll tell you.” It’s not hard to find som... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries