Mortgage Rates Hold Near Multi Month Lows; Potential Volatility Ahead

Mortgage rates put in a solid performance so far this week with substantial declines to the lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursday was a bit different as the underlying bond market began to shift gears ahead of Friday's important jobs report. Officially known as "The Employment Situation," the jobs report is the single most important piece of scheduled economic data for interest rates on any given month. During times of higher inflation, it can share the crown with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), but that typically just means we have two really important reports in close proximity (CPI is next Tuesday) rather than one dominating the other. Very simply put, if these two reports send a similar message to the data already out this week, it will coax rates to even lower levels--possibly breaking the average 30yr fixed rate into the high 5% range for flawless scenarios. NOTE: that is not at all a prediction, but merely one of the "if/thens." Things can go the other way just as easily. In other words, if the jobs report is stronger than expected and inflation is higher (CPI measures inflation), rates would almost certainly bounce at the current lows and head back up toward 7%. How close to 7% would depend on how strong the data was. We'll cross that bridge if we come to it. For now, the only high probability bet is to say that volatility is a bigger risk tomorrow and Tuesday.

April 6, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Hold Near Multi Month Lows; Potential Volatility Ahead Mortgage rates put in a solid performance so far this week with substantial declines to the lowest levels in months as of yesterday afternoon. Thursday was a bit different as the underlying bond market began to shift gears ahead of Friday's imp... (read more) MBS Commentary Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report Weeklong Rally Levels Off Ahead of Jobs Report 10yr yields began the week over 3.5% and rallied more than 20bps by yesterday morning. Most of that progress came on Monday and Tuesday. Yesterd... (read more) Rob Chrisman DPA, Insurance, Lien Release, Marketing, MSR Valuation Products; In-Person Events for April Into May My cat Myrtle never turns down a good helping of enchanting, diced, barbequed beef. (Sorry vegetarians: La Principessa is a carnivore.) I realize that Easter is still ahead of us, and summer a few months off, but who hasn’t driven by a field full of ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.18% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.18% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.78% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.95% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.59% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.87% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/6 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.77% +0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.08 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/6 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.40% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.97% +0.13 0.54 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.36% +0.09 0.47 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/5 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.06 -0.13 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 100.06 -0.13 UMBS 5.5 101.20 -0.11 GNMA 5.0 100.17 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 100.98 -0.23 Pricing as of: 4/6 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.3087 -0.0003 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.835 +0.043 5 YR Treasury 3.377 +0.006 7 YR Treasury 3.341 -0.008 10 YR Treasury 3.309 0.000 30 YR Treasury 3.553 -0.018 Pricing as of: 4/6 5:31PM EST Latest Video Initial jobless claims land at 228,000 Jobs report on deck: What to expect tomorrow LendingTree CEO: Buying homes remains tough for people right now Fed's James Bullard: Financial stress readings are relatively low Around the Web CNBC Ron Insana says the Fed appears to be getting the recession it helped cause Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 53% YoY; New Listings Down 22% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 228,000; Major Revisions to Seasonal Factors Eye on Housing Affordability Pyramid Shows 64.8 Million Households Cannot Buy a $250,000 Home Calculated Risk Blog Update: Comparing the Current Housing Cycle to the 1980 Period Black Knight Optimal Blue Adds Product Comparison Feature to its Loansifter PPE to Help Brokers Enhance the Mortgage Shopping Experience for Their Borrowers CNBC Inflation's inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy: CNBC Supply Chain Survey CNBC Treasury yields slightly higher as investors track key economic data Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 3.5% Compared to Same Week in 2019 CNBC ETFs are setting the tone for the underlying bond market. Here's why CNBC Western Alliance shares cut losses after the bank says deposit outflows are stabilizing Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit increased to $70.5 Billion in February CNBC European markets are set to open mixed over global economic uncertainty

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