Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail Sales (the day's only big-ticket market mover) didn't provide much help for bonds. The catch was that the key internal component (the control group, aka retail sales excluding autos/gas/building materials) was stronger than expected. Bonds lost ground on the news, but began to rally about 30 minutes later. The net effect was essentially a restoration of Friday's average mid-day trading levels, thus making for a ho-hum Monday.   Econ Data / EventsRetail Sales0.2 vs 0.6 f'cast, -0.9 prev Retail Sales "control group"1.0 vs 0.3 f'cast NY Fed Manufacturing-20 vs -0.75 f'cast, 5.7 prev Business Inventories0.3 vs 0.3 f'cast, -0.2 prev NAHB Builder Confidence39 vs 42 f'cast, 42 prev Market Movement Recap08:35 AM Weaker after retail sales, but a hair stronger on the day.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 4.311. 12:28 PM Nice recovery for reasons unknown (some big trades at 9:20am, but that's about it). MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.8bps at 4.265 03:31 PM Losing some ground in the PM hours, but still slightly stronger.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.6bps at 4.307
MND logo
March 17, 2025
Download our Mobile App:
Download from Google Play
Download from Apple App Store
View the QR Code
Download our Mobile App:
Download from Google Play
Download from Apple App Store
MBS Commentary
Mixed Reaction to Retail Sales Makes For a Boring Monday Despite coming in much weaker than expected, Retail Sales (the day's only big-ticket market mover) didn't provide much help for bonds. The catch was th... (read more)
Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market, and the bond market is closed for most of the weekend.  As such, one might assume that Monday's mortgage rates would always be right in line with Friday's.  But this is definitely not... (read more)
Rob Chrisman
“My friend showed me a photo of a famous meteor crater in Arizona. It's amazing how close it landed to the Visitor's Center!” Here in Tucson, the weather is fine but “tornado season” has hit with a vengeance in other parts of the United States. Anyon... (read more)
Mortgage Rates
MBS / Treasuries