Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors  reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move.  Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE open and bond yields were pulled higher in concert.  That prevailing correlation broke down around 3pm due to month/quarter end bond buying (3pm is the official close for bonds, even though trading continues until 5pm). There was no major reaction to econ data or Fed speakers today.  The data becomes more relevant in the coming days.  Econ Data / EventsChicago PMI 47.6 vs 45.2 f'cast, 45.5 prev Market Movement Recap09:54 AM Stronger overnight as stocks continue tanking.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.208 11:30 AM Weakest levels of the day. MBS nearly unchanged and 10yr still down 1.3bps at 4.223 03:10 PM Some month/quarter end buying at 3pm helping a modest recovery.  10yr down 0.3bps at 4.232.  MBS unchanged. 
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March 31, 2025
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MBS Commentary
Month End Buying Pushes Back on Mid-Day Weakness Bonds began the day in stronger territory as investors  reacted to weekend tariff news with a risk-off move.  Stocks bounced shortly after the NYSE o... (read more)
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MBS / Treasuries