Mortgage Rates Launched Back Over 7% by Strong Economic Data

Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades in terms of outright levels with 30yr fixed rates over 8%). Monday added insult to injury with another sharp increase that took the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate back over 7% for the first time since December 12th. In both cases, the most relevant catalyst was an upbeat economic report. We already know that it was the big jobs report that did the damage on Friday. Today's rate rout came courtesy of the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (aka ISM Services). While it's lesser-known than the jobs report, ISM Services is one of only a handful of other reports worthy of sharing the stage as a supporting actor. When it comes in much higher or lower than expected, rates almost always react. Rates are more sensitive than normal to economic surprises at the moment and they're on veritable high alert after last Friday. Today's ISM data was only moderately stronger than expected at the headline level, but some components of the report (employment and prices) were much higher than last time. After the data, the bond market (which dictates rates) immediately moved to the weakest levels of the day. Weaker trading levels in the bond market prompted mortgage lenders to set their rates much higher today versus Friday afternoon. In these two business days, the average lender is more than 0.40% higher in terms of top tier 30yr fixed rates versus Thursday afternoon.

February 5, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Launched Back Over 7% by Strong Economic Data Last Friday was the worst day for mortgage rates in over a year in terms of day-over-day movement (October 19th, 2023 remains the worst day in decades in terms of outright levels with 30yr fixed rates over 8%). Monday added insult to injury with ano... (read more) MBS Commentary Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data Big Losses Get Bigger After ISM Data Bonds sold off again today, but this time in several distinct waves. The first wave occurred instantly as trading opened in the overnight session. 10yr yields ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Recruiting Service; Fulfillment, Wholesale, 2nds, Warehouse, Automation Tools; FHA and USDA News “If I had a dollar for every girl that found me unattractive, they would eventually find me attractive.” New York Community Bancorp, buyer of Flagstar (2022) and Signature Bank (2023), wishes it had a few more dollars: it announced a shock earnings r... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.04% +0.12% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.04% +0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.38% +0.13 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.09 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.35% +0.07 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.60% +0.15 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.30% +0.08 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/5 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.38% +0.13% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.63% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.94% -0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/1 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.78% +0.03 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.31% +0.07 0.59 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.94% +0.08 0.46 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/24 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.33 -0.55 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.33 -0.55 UMBS 6.0 100.75 -0.30 GNMA 5.5 99.81 -0.47 GNMA 6.0 100.95 -0.23 Pricing as of: 2/5 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.1680 +0.1460 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.478 +0.106 5 YR Treasury 4.128 +0.142 7 YR Treasury 4.156 +0.146 10 YR Treasury 4.168 +0.146 30 YR Treasury 4.352 +0.128 Pricing as of: 2/5 5:31PM EST Latest Video 'Big Short' investor Steve Eisman: Deep down Fed's Powell is 'petrified' of... The hidden reason some U.S. homes are losing value ISM non-manufacturing reading hits 53.4, higher than expected December factory orders rises 0.2%, in line with expectations Around the Web Federal Reserve Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey Shows Tighter Demand, But Not For Mainstream Mortgages Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Update on Mortgage Rates and Spreads Wells Fargo Should We Worry About American Debt?: Time to Reconsider? Marketwatch Treasury yields continue to jump after U.S. data, Powell interview cnbc Fed’s Kashkari backs sentiment that policymakers can take their time cutting interest rates CNBC Fed's Kashkari backs sentiment that policymakers can take their time cutting interest rates CNBC Treasury yields climb as investors consider interest rate outlook Calculated Risk Blog Housing February 5th Weekly Update: Inventory Down 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 8.7% Year-over-year Marketwatch Bond-market selloff driven by 'higher for longer' fears Eye on Housing Gains for Student Housing Construction CNBC Economists say the labor market is strong but job seekers don't share that confidence. Here's why CNBC Fourth-quarter earnings are shaping up to be the best of 2023, but there's a catch CNBC European stocks head for flat to lower open as markets ponder Fed Powell's comments

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