Mortgage Rates Move a Bit Lower After Unemployment Data

Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger than expected in the 8:30am time slot, the bond market was perfectly content to focus on yet another instance of the highest jobless claims since 2021. As far as we're concerned, that's the highest claims number since 2017 considering 2021 was still on the way down from the post-covid stratosphere. As far as the market is concerned, that's a potential early indication of a shift in the labor market--something that could help solidify a downward trend in inflation. Traders saw it that way, at least, as bond rallied sharply after the data and didn't move too much after 10am except for a brief correction heading into the EU close. MBS made a bigger deal of that than Treasuries due to illiquidity. Econ Data / EventsJobless Claims262k vs 249k f'cast, 261k prev Retail Sales0.3 vs -0.1 f'cast, 0.4 prev Philly Fed-13.7 vs -14 f'cast, -10.4 prev Import Prices-0.6 vs -0.5 f'cast, 0.4 prev NY Fed Manufacturing6.6 vs -15.1 f'cast, -31.8 prev Market Movement Recap08:35 AM Modestly weaker overnight with little spillover from Europe and the ECB announcement. 10yr up 1.6bps at 3.806. MBS down just over a quarter point. 11:22 AM Steady gains into 1040am but losing ground since then. MBS down about 6 ticks from the highs (.19), but still up 3 ticks (0.09) on the day). 10yr yields down 4bps on the day at 3.75, but up from lows of 3.707. 12:15 PM Bouncing back toward stronger levels. MBS up a quarter point. 10yr down 5.6bps at 3.734 02:47 PM Holding gains with both MBS and Treasuries still in line with levels from the last update.

June 15, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Early Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That Earl Data-Driven Rally And Not Much Drama After That Despite a slew of other economic data that was stronger than expected in the 8:30am time slot, the bond market was perfectly content to focus on yet anothe... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Move a Bit Lower After Unemployment Data Not to be confused with the big monthly jobs report (the one that includes a count of "nonfarm payrolls" as well as the official unemployment rate in the US), the weekly Jobless Claims provides a combined measurement of state-level unemployment filin... (read more) Rob Chrisman Company Webinars and Training, Internal Audit, CRM, Servicing, Marketing Tools; Another Lesson in "Don't Fight the Fed" Here’s a couple informal reads on the economy. When I have a few extra ducats in my pocket, sometimes I’ll spring for the more expensive Shrimp Alfredo at Olive Garden instead of the cheaper Lasagna Classico. When Freedom Mortgage’s Stan Middleman is... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.94% -0.03% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.94% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.29% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.62% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.70% 0.00 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.90% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.65% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/15 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.29% -0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.69% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.10% +0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/15 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.14 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.25% 0.00 1.05 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.79% +0.05 0.50 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/14 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.72 +0.41 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.72 +0.41 UMBS 5.5 100.22 +0.39 GNMA 5.0 98.94 +0.38 GNMA 5.5 100.25 +0.33 Pricing as of: 6/15 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.7200 -0.0700 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.642 -0.052 5 YR Treasury 3.912 -0.082 7 YR Treasury 3.818 -0.082 10 YR Treasury 3.720 -0.070 30 YR Treasury 3.839 -0.040 Pricing as of: 6/15 5:31PM EST Latest Video We're in a shortage situation in the housing market, says Realtor.com's Dan... Fed Notes: Where we go now Former Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher: The Fed is 'totally devoted' to... The Fed pause represents a compromise among the committee, says Harvard's D... Around the Web CNBC this map shows how much money renters in every state need to earn to afford a 2-bedroom apartment Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims at 262,000 Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Update on Mortgage/Treasury Spreads Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Weekly Active Inventory Up 10% YoY; New Listings Down 22% YoY CNBC The Fed forecasts two more hikes in 2023, taking rates as high as 5.6% CNBC Amid economic uncertainty, it's an 'attractive time' for investment-grade bonds, financial expert says CNBC Watch: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks after rate decision Calculated Risk Blog Update: "Why Year-over-year Headline Inflation will Decline Sharply in May and June" CNBC European Central Bank raises rates by 25 basis points after Fed opts to pause CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed rate decision, policy guidance CNBC Fed leaves rates unchanged, pausing after 10 consecutive hikes Calculated Risk Blog Industrial Production Decreased 0.2% in May Calculated Risk Blog Retail Sales Increased 0.3% in May

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