Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Today. Upcoming Inflation Data Could Have a Big Impact

Mortgage rates started the week slightly higher for the average lender, but still below last week's highs. Most of what was lost yesterday was gained back today. All of the above makes the recent movement seem bigger than it actually has been. The last 5 business days have been some of the narrowest since mid-July with 30yr fixed rates moving less than 0.125% from trough to peak. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] The absence of volatility makes sense because there's also been an absence of big ticket economic data since last Wednesday. That will change tomorrow with the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI is the most closely-watched monthly inflation report. Given that inflation is the biggest reason for high rates, markets are poised to react to any unexpected results. Traders already assume that fuel/energy inflation will push the headline number higher, but that "core inflation" (which excludes food/energy) will be in line with last month's reading. The rate market is more focused on core inflation. If it surprises to the high side, rates would likely rise--potentially abruptly. If it comes in lower than expected, rates would likely move down. The larger the departure from expectations, the bigger the potential move. CPI will be released at 8:30am ET, which is before almost any mortgage lender has rates available to lock.

September 12, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower Today. Upcoming Inflation Data Could Have a Big Impact Mortgage rates started the week slightly higher for the average lender, but still below last week's highs. Most of what was lost yesterday was gained back today. All of the above makes the recent movement seem bigger than it actual... (read more) MBS Commentary Another Sideways Set-Up Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there are a few ways to view the bigger picture depending on how big you want to go. Looking ba... (read more) Rob Chrisman DSCR, PPE. Borrower Intelligence, DPR Products; STRATMOR MortgageCX News; Training This Week; Chopra Speaks Yesterday I listened to the CFPB’s Rohit Chopra discuss home loans. Today I head from Nashville to Chicago, both known all over the world. Here, the United States has everything: mountains, forests, plains, rivers, swamps, tropical jungles, glaciers,... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 7.25% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 7.25% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.60% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.75% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.32% -0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 7.06% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.75% -0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.60% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 7.12% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.52% -0.03 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/7 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 7.16% +0.07 0.68 15 Yr. Fixed 6.57% +0.06 0.94 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.11% +0.07 0.55 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 8/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 6.0 99.67 -0.16 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 6.0 99.67 -0.16 GNMA 6.0 99.98 -0.19 Pricing as of: 9/12 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2740 -0.0200 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 5.014 +0.019 5 YR Treasury 4.422 +0.007 7 YR Treasury 4.366 -0.011 10 YR Treasury 4.274 -0.020 30 YR Treasury 4.345 -0.031 Pricing as of: 9/12 5:31PM EST Latest Video Bond yields around the world have hit turning point, says Wells Fargo's Mic... Headline inflation will prove 'much more' complicated to fight, says Mohame... We'll see CPI move higher due to energy costs, says NewEdge Wealth's Camero... Consumer spending is stabilizing but still positive, says Bank of America's... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview and Owners' equivalent rent forexlive Poll: Most economists see Fed waiting until at least end of March before cutting rates Eye on Housing Household Real Estate Value Jumps in the Second Quarter Eye on Housing Geography of Homeownership and Home Building Reuters https://www.investing.com/news/economy/goldman-sachs-ceo-says-economic-outlook-is-uncertain-despite-soft-landing-prospects-3172846 Calculated Risk Blog Q2 Update: Delinquencies, Foreclosures and REO Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August CNBC Treasury yields dip as investors consider inflation outlook CNBC Fears over access to credit hit highest level in more than a decade, New York Fed survey shows Marketwatch Treasury yields rise as Japan's 10-year rate reaches highest in roughly a decade Calculated Risk Blog Housing September 11th Weekly Update: Inventory increased 0.1% Week-over-week; Down 6.9% Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Leading Index for Commercial Real Estate Decreased in August CNBC European stocks head for higher open as positive momentum continues

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