Mortgage Rates Start Lower, But Finish Higher After Inflation Data

Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the day in good shape, with most lenders just a bit lower than yesterday. This was made possible by today's important inflation data coming in right in line with forecasts. When economic data is right in line with forecasts, the implication for interest rate movement is about as tame as it can be. Contrast that to alternate extremes where a surge in inflation would have sent rates skyrocketing or where a big drop in inflation would give way to much lower rates. The initial reaction to today's inflation data was akin to a small sigh of relief with modest benefits for rates, but it unfortunately ended up being a multi-stage affair that focused most of its efforts on pushing rates higher. Attempts to explain "why" would end up venturing into analytical territory where someone is coming up with analysis to fit a certain outcome. There are several legitimate ways to do that, but rest assured, no one would be digging very deep into that analytical effort if rates hadn't paradoxically reversed course in the middle of the day. In other words, we'd all be saying "inflation was in line with forecasts and a slight sigh of relief in rates makes sense." The damage wakes the average lender right in line with 7% 30yr fixed rates for top tier scenarios.

June 13, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Start Lower, But Finish Higher After Inflation Data Tuesday brought an unfriendly paradoxical reaction for rates. Don't worry. We can shift gears to words that make more sense now. Rates began the day in good shape, with most lenders just a bit lower than yesterday. This... (read more) MBS Commentary Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI Frustrating Snowball Selling Despite Decent CPI Even though CPI came in right in line with forecasts today (core m/m at 0.4 vs 0.4), and even though that was initially worth a small rally this morning, bonds ... (read more) Rob Chrisman POS, Dashboard, Credit Verification Products; Freddie and Fannie Changes; Today's CPI Suggests Fed Holds Steady Tomorrow? Sad?: “Invitations to the Unabomber's funeral were mailed out, but no one wants to open them.” Hopefully not sad: for anyone wanting to know about comp for processors, underwriters, or LOs, STRATMOR’s current blog is, “Compensation: Ever Changing.” S... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.98% +0.04% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.98% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.35% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.71% +0.02 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.95% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.67% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/13 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.35% +0.04% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.71% -0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.07% -0.11 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/8 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.91% +0.22 0.83 15 Yr. Fixed 6.41% +0.26 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% +0.21 0.76 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/31 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.25 -0.33 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 98.25 -0.33 UMBS 5.5 99.80 -0.28 GNMA 5.0 98.48 -0.25 GNMA 5.5 99.88 -0.31 Pricing as of: 6/13 5:31PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.8230 +0.0800 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.670 +0.085 5 YR Treasury 3.996 +0.094 7 YR Treasury 3.922 +0.092 10 YR Treasury 3.823 +0.080 30 YR Treasury 3.928 +0.040 Pricing as of: 6/13 5:31PM EST Latest Video We're 'a long way away' from the Fed's target of 2% inflation, says Strateg... Latest economic data 'good enough' to pause rate hikes, says Princeton's Al... Harder for the Fed to restart rate hikes once they stop, says Dreyfus and M... 91% of CNBC Fed survey respondents don't foresee a rate hike in June Around the Web CNBC Inflation rose at a 4% annual rate in May, the lowest in 2 years CNBC Heres the inflation breakdown for May 2023, in one chart CNBC Social Security cost-of-living adjustment may be 2.7% in 2024, new estimate finds Calculated Risk Why Year-over-year Headline Inflation will Decline Sharply in May and June Calculated Risk Blog Cleveland Fed: Median CPI increased 0.4% and Trimmed-mean CPI increased 0.2% in May CNBC Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warns of pain ahead for commercial real estate Eye on Housing Households Real Estate Asset Value Falls for Third Consecutive Quarter CNBC Inflation outlook hits two-year low in latest New York Fed survey Calculated Risk Blog YoY Measures of Inflation: Services, Goods and Shelter CNBC Treasury yields dip as investors anticipate key inflation data, Fed policy meeting Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in May Calculated Risk Blog Housing June 12th Weekly Update: Inventory Increased 1.5% Week-over-week Calculated Risk Blog Why Year-over-year Headline Inflation will Decline Sharply in May and June

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