Mortgage Refinancing Hits a Two-Year High

By Brett Eversole

Interest-rate cuts are coming. And the market is already one step ahead of the Federal Reserve...

The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell to less than 4% this month. That's down from 4.7% earlier this year – a hefty decline in a few short months.

Lower rates should help boost our slowing economy. And in one area, that improvement is already starting...

You see, mortgage rates are falling alongside long-term interest rates. Now, we've seen a spike in mortgage refinancing as a result.

But we should expect more good things ahead – because this is likely just the start of a boom in housing activity...

The slowing economy is forcing the Fed's hand. The central bank has held interest rates "higher for longer" – longer than most folks expected, at least. But last month, unemployment came in higher than expected at 4.3%.

That means the Fed is almost certain to act. It said as much earlier this month...

"The time has come for policy to adjust," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in comments on August 23. In other words, rate cuts are coming.

The market is already getting ahead of that move. The 10-year Treasury rate is down... and so are mortgage rates. After falling for months, they dropped below 7% in the past few weeks. Take a look...

High mortgage rates have been a huge problem in recent years. They put the housing market on ice...

Folks haven't been buying or selling unless they had no better option. That has kept housing inventory low... And housing activity has slowed to a crawl.

Things are changing, though. The recent drop below 7% has already kicked refinancing activity into gear. Fannie Mae's Refinance Application-Level Index recently hit a two-year high. Take a look...

This weekly index tracks application volumes to give us a glimpse of how many folks are refinancing their homes. And with mortgage rates falling, they're doing so at the highest level since 2022.

Still, refinancing activity remains drastically lower than what we saw before interest rates soared. The reason is obvious... You don't refinance when mortgage rates are high.

Now, though, mortgage rates are falling. And with the Fed about to cut interest rates, this trend will only continue in the months ahead.

Once mortgage rates fall to 6%, 5%, or potentially even lower, we'll see a massive wave of housing activity and mortgage refinancing.

In short, refinancing is already hitting multiyear highs... But "we ain't seen nothin' yet."

This trend is only beginning. And it means the deep freeze on the housing market is finally about to thaw.

Good investing,

Brett Eversole

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