Must Read: Will Beijing Invade Taiwan?

The Taiwan Temptation

Why Beijing Might Resort to Force

By Oriana Skylar Mastro

After more than 70 years of relative peace between China and Taiwan, “there have been disturbing signals that Beijing is reconsidering its peaceful approach,” Oriana Skylar Mastro writes in a new essay. “Whereas Chinese leaders used to view a military campaign to take the island as a fantasy, now they consider it a real possibility.”

Can Washington change Beijing’s calculations? “There is no quick and easy fix,” Mastro warns. “The most effective way to deter Chinese leaders from attacking Taiwan is also the most difficult: to convince them that armed unification would cost China its rejuvenation. And the United States cannot do this alone.”

Read more from Foreign Affairs on U.S. policy toward Taiwan:

“American Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous” by Richard Haass and David Sacks
“Dire Straits: Should American Support for Taiwan Be Ambiguous?” by Bonnie S. Glaser; Michael J. Mazarr; Michael J. Glennon; Richard Haass and David Sacks respond
“Is Taiwan the Next Hong Kong?” by Michael Green and Evan Medeiros

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