Dear Subscriber,

By Juan Villaverde

Bitcoin (BTC, “A-”) is now a $2 trillion asset.

And with that growth has come global importance.

It’s not only a digital store of value asset.

It also graces the balance sheets of several industry leading TradFi firms … and some nations, as well. 

It’s only natural that its turning points have begun to more closely coincide with macro and geopolitical developments.

What do I mean?

Well, a new pattern has emerged on my Crypto Timing Model.

Each time it signals a key date ahead — one that will either accelerate or shift Bitcoin’s current trend — that date has corresponded to significant macroeconomic catalysts.

3 Critical Dates We’ve Passed

April 7 is when my model said Bitcoin would make a critical low according to the cycles.

What else happened that day?

President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs he initially unveiled on “Liberation Day” about a week earlier.

And indeed, Bitcoin did make a low on that date. Following Trump’s announcement, markets rallied strongly on the news, kicking off the last 80-day-cycle rally.

It lasted until the next key date identified by my model, May 22.

And sure enough, the next correction started on May 23 …the same day Trump threatened new tariffs on the EU.

And during this correction, the altcoins fell by double digits. But Bitcoin remained within a tight range — between $112,000 and $100,000.

That was also in-line with my model, which showed no significant turning points for Bitcoin during this time.

Now, we’ve just passed the latest key date marked by my model: June 23.

That’s the day after my model suggested the correction that began on May 22 would end. (Note that my model flags the day prices first turn up — not the actual date of the low.) 

But what’s really interesting is that same date became important in the current Middle East conflict. 

June 23 is when President Trump brokered the “ceasefire” between Iran and Israel — potentially ending what he dubbed their “12-day war.”

These three key dates — April 7, May 22 and June 23 — are just the most recent examples of how my model often aligns with forthcoming real events — weeks ahead of time.

As the latest example, June 23 still remains unconfirmed as a cycle low. Still, it looks like Trump’s brokered ceasefire likely coincided with an 80-day-cycle low. 

On top of that, macro conditions — from inflation trends to liquidity — are favorable for crypto.

1 Key Date Still Ahead

That being the case, we should be seeing a healthy rally off 80-day-cycle lows.

But we’re not. (Remember that Sherlock Holmes story about the dog that didn’t bark?)

How come? 

Well, major global uncertainty still looms — from Trump’s constantly shifting tariff policies to hot, shooting wars in Ukraine and the Mideast.

Bitcoin and crypto are hardly immune to bombs and bullets.

And this is reflected by my model, which indicates July 7 as our next key date to watch.

That is way too quick to be our next 80-day-cycle high. Which means that we could see a double-bottom pattern form.

That means one of two things for the market.

Either we’ll retest June 22’s low between now and July 7. 

Or we’ll move sideways until then. 

Either way, we’ll likely need to wait for the next leg up until after that next key date. 

For now, hold on tight. It may be a bumpy ride.

Best,

Juan Villaverde