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| Tuesday, March 14, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| It's Pi Day, which is kind of fitting, because Pi is a number that goes on forever and I'm starting to think that this Aaron Rodgers drama might also go on forever. Common sense says that we should likely get a resolution today, but when it comes to Rodgers, you can't trust common sense. |
| Hopefully, by the time you read this newsletter, the Rodgers drama will be over. Until then, we wait. |
| Anyway, as the tampering period heads into Day 2, deals will be happening all day Tuesday. If you want to stay on top of all those deals, then you're definitely going to want to click here so you can follow all the action in our free agency live blog. If you're too busy to follow a live blog, you can also click here to check out our free agent tracker that will be updated any time one of the top 100 free agents signs a deal. |
| As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| Also, with NCAA Tournament tipping off this week, I'd like to formally invite everyone join the Pick Six Podcast bracket challenge. It's free to enter and if you somehow win, you'll take home a gift card to Paramount Plus. You will likely destroy me, but unfortunately, there's no prize for destroying me. Just click here and sign up if you want to enter. |
| 1. Today's show: Winners and losers from Day 1 of free agency |
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| The unofficial start of free agency came on Monday and surprisingly, it wasn't that crazy. Last year, I'm pretty sure the Jaguars spent $200 million in the first hour of free agency, but no one got that crazy this year. However, there was plenty of action and we covered it all on today's episode of the Pick Six Podcast. |
| Will Brinson, Katie Mox and I went over the winners and losers from Monday, and here's what we came up with: |
| Winners: |
| Bears. At the rate things are going, Bears fans might build a statue for general manager Ryan Poles by the end of the week. In just his second offseason on the job, Poles has been busy. Not only did he trade away the No. 1 overall pick in a deal that was good for the Bears, but he's also added three starters since Monday morning with Tremaine Edmunds, T.J. Edwards and Nate Davis all agreeing to deals. Russell Wilson. The Broncos had two major needs on the offensive line heading into free agency and it appears that they've already filled both of them. In a span of two hours on Monday, the Broncos landed the top left guard in free agency (Ben Powers) and the top right tackle (Mike McGlinchey). One reason Russell Wilson struggled in 2022 is because his offensive line wasn't very good. Wilson was sacked a total of 55 times in 2022, which was tied for the most in the NFL, but with the addition of Powers and McGlinchey, the Broncos should be able to cut down on that number in a major way. Jimmy Garoppolo. After signing with the 49ers as a backup in 2022, Jimmy is now getting starter money after agreeing to a three-year, $72.5 million deal with the Raiders. Not only is he getting paid, but he gets to work with a coach he knows in an offense that he's familiar with. Everything is coming up Jimmy. |
| Losers: |
| Eagles. When your team is good, everyone wants your players and the Eagles found that out the hard way on Monday. In a span of hours, the Eagles lost three starters in free agency with Javon Hargrave, Marcus Epps and T.J. Edwards all signing elsewhere. Things could get even uglier if James Bradberry and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson both leave in free agency this week. Chargers. The Chargers only made one major move on Monday and that was signing former Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks. However, that has nothing to do with why they're listed here. The Chargers are in the "Loser" section because one of their best players (Austin Ekeler) has requested a trade. Ekeler is headed into the final year of his contract and he wants a new deal, but there's no guarantee that the Chargers are going to be willing to pay him his asking price. The Chargers have a history of being stingy, so there's definitely a chance that this doesn't end well. |
| If you want to listen to the rest of our winners and losers, you can do that by clicking here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Grading some of Monday's biggest deals |
| The only thing better than making a winners and losers list for the first day of the NFL tampering period is to grade each one of the deals, so that's exactly what we had Professor Tyler Sullivan do (I'm not sure if he's actually a professor, but I'm giving him that title for the day). |
| Here's a look at the grades Sullivan handed out for three of the biggest deals from Monday: |
| Javon Hargrave agrees to terms with the 49ers (four years, $84 million): A. "It didn't seem possible for San Francisco's defense to get scarier, and then they went out and signed arguably the best defensive player on the free agent market in Javon Hargrave."Jonathan Jones re-signs with Patriots (two years, $20 million): B. "Jones had made it quite clear that he wanted to remain in New England, so this was his preferred outcome while the Patriots retain a versatile piece of their secondary. Jones primarily came up as a slot corner, but moved to the outside and played well in that role in 2022."Patrick Peterson agrees to terms with Steelers (four years, $72 million): A-. "While they lost Cam Sutton to the Lions, the Steelers replaced him with a cornerback who may end up in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Peterson's ability to make splash plays is one of the things that probably led to the Steelers signing him. Last season, Peterson picked off five passes, his highest total in 11 years." |
| If you want to see the rest of Sullivan's grades for Day 1, be sure to click here. You can also check our team-by-team grades by clicking here. |
| 3. QB carousel: Jimmy Garoppolo lands with Raiders, 49ers add Sam Darnold |
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| One position that's always worth watching in free agency is quarterback, and surprisingly, there was actually a lot of action revolving around quarterbacks yesterday. |
| Let's take a look at what went down at the NFL's most important position. |
| Jimmy Garoppolo agrees to terms with the Raiders. Jimmy G spent the first three years of his career with Josh McDaniels in New England, and now, he's reunited with his former offensive coordinator. Garoppolo was given a three-year deal worth up to $72.5 million, which means the Raiders definitely view him as their starting QB heading into 2023. Jarrett Stidham agrees to terms with the Broncos. Stidham could have stayed in Las Vegas, but instead, he decided to jump ship to an AFC West rival. Stidham's decision to sign with Denver is an interesting one. On one hand, he'll be going in as the backup. However, if Russell Wilson continues to struggle in 2023, it's certainly possible that Stidham could see some playing time at some point. Stidham got a two-year, $14 million deal from Denver. Sam Darnold agrees to terms with the 49ers. This was definitely the most interesting quarterback signing of the day. With Brock Purdy likely to be unavailable when the season starts and Trey Lance still unproven, the 49ers had to go out and get a veteran, and they definitely got that here. Darnold has been plagued by horrible coaching during his five seasons in the NFL, so it will be interesting to see if he can turn things around in San Francisco. Darnold got a one-year deal worth $4.5 million. Taylor Heinicke agrees to terms with the Falcons. Heinicke got a two-year, $20 million deal from the Falcons, which is a lot of money for a backup, but not a lot of money for a starter. Based on the contract, it seems like Atlanta will go into the season with hopes that Desmond Ridder (or someone they draft this year) can be the starter, but if not, they have Heinicke waiting in the wings. Jameis Winston returning to New Orleans. For the second straight year, Winston will be in New Orleans as a backup QB. After backing up Andy Dalton in 2022, Winston will now back up Derek Carr after agreeing to a one-year, $8 million contract on Monday. Two guys who will definitely be backups. Mike White is jumping ship from the Jets to sign with the Dolphins. White got a two-year, $16 million deal from Miami, where he'll definitely be serving as the backup to Tua Tagovailoa. The Texans also added a backup QB on Monday by signing Case Keenum to a two-year deal. |
| As for Aaron Rodgers, the only update is that there is no update. That being said, the Jets have been talking to Allen Lazard today, which might be a sign that a trade could be coming soon. |
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| 4. Biggest free agents left |
| If your team sat out the first day of free agency tampering, you don't need to worry just yet and that's because there are plenty of good players who are still available. |
| The biggest prize left on the market is definitely Orlando Brown, who will be an instant upgrade at left tackle for pretty much any team in the NFL. With that in mind, let's check out the 10 highest-ranked players from Prisco's top 100 list who are still available (they're listed with the team they played for last season): |
1. OT Orlando Brown (Chiefs)
2. CB James Bradberry (Eagles)
3. S Jordan Poyer (Bills)
4. S Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (Eagles)
5. OT Kaleb McGary (Falcons)
6. LB Lavonte David (Buccneers)
7. OG Isaac Seumalo (Eagles)
8. WR Jakobi Meyers (Patriots)
9. DE Jadeveon Clowney (Browns)
10. LB Azeez Al-Shaair (49ers) |
| The tampering period will be continuing today and since deals could be going down all day Tuesday, there's a chance that one or more of these guys could be off the market by the time you read this list. |
| Also, here's another reminder that we've put together a free agent tracker so that you can stay up to date on what has happened so far. If you'd like to check out the tracker, just click here. We also have a live blog that will cover signings AND trades as they happen and you can check that out by clicking here. |
| 5. NFL to consider several major rule changes for the 2023 season |
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| Every year, NFL teams propose multiple rule changes for the upcoming season and for the most part, those changes aren't really notable. However, we do have some wild proposals this year and they were unveiled by the NFL this week. |
| Here's a look at the proposals that are on the table for 2023 (We covered some of these proposals a few weeks ago, so you're not having deja vu if you feel like you've read about some of these proposals before). |
| Chargers want to make change to playoff seeding. Under this proposal, a wild-card team would be seeded higher than a division-winning team if the division winner finishes under .500 AND if the wild-card team has a final record that's at least four games better than the division-winning team. If this rule had been in existence last season, the Cowboys (12-5) would have hosted the Buccaneers (8-9) in the wild-card round instead of the other way around. Eagles make some interesting proposals. NFL players aren't currently allowed to wear zero as a number, but the Eagles want to see that changed. The Eagles are also proposing that the game clock shows the time down to the tenth of a second during the final 30 seconds of each half. Lions want to make it easier to get a third challenge. Under the current rules, a coach has to win each of his first two challenges to get a third challenge. Under the Lions' proposal, a coach would just have to win ONE of his first two challenges to gain a third challenge. Texans want all failed fourth downs to get reviewed. The NFL already reviews all turnovers, so the Texans want to add failed fourth downs to the list since those are technically a turnover. Many fourth-and-1 plays get challenged when they fall inches short. This rule would save teams a challenge since the play would be automatically reviewed. One cut day. There are currently three cut days in the NFL, but multiple teams want to see that changed. It seems that most teams would prefer that the league only holds one cut day, which would happen after the preseason has concluded. Rams want to make roughing the passer reviewable. After a 2022 season with several controversial roughing the passer penalties, the Rams are proposing a rule that would make the penalty reviewable. According to NFL.com , the competition committee doesn't sound excited about the change, so it's unlikely that we'll see this one voted through. Lions want teams to be allowed to dress an emergency third quarterback. Under this proposed rule, teams would be allowed to carry 47 active players on game day, but the extra player would have to be a quarterback. Currently, teams are allowed to dress 46 players. The NFL used to allow teams to carry an emergency third quarterback on game day, but the league scrapped that rule in 2011 . The rule came up again after the 49ers ran out of quarterbacks in their NFC title-game loss to the Eagles. Eagles are proposing an alternative onside kick. Instead of attempting an onside kick to get the ball back, teams would have the option to convert a fourth-and-15 from their own 25-yard line. This rule is being used in the XFL and one team actually converted on the play in Week 1 (You can see it here). The rule was popular enough in the NFL that it was proposed in 2019, 2020 and 2021 , but in each case, nothing changed (The rule was voted down in 2019 and the owners decided to table the discussion in both 2020 and 2021, which meant that no vote was held). The competition committee was in favor of this rule in the past, so it will be interesting to see where they stand now. The problem with the current onside kick is that it has been almost impossible to recover since the NFL changed its kickoff rules in 2018. Last season, there were only three onside kicks recovered the entire year. |
| I actually wrote something on why I LIKE the alternative onside kick rule, and you can see that explanation here (And yes, I do sometimes write things besides this newsletter). |
| You can check out all the rule proposals here. As for whether we'll see any changes, each rule would have to be approved by 24 of the 32 owners before it can officially be added to the rule book for the 2023 season. |
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| 6. Rapid-fire roundup: Buccaneers trade away starting offensive lineman |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Shaq Mason traded from Tampa Bay to Houston. The Buccaneers need to get under the cap before Wednesday and they continued their efforts to do that by trading Mason to the Texans for a late-round pick. This is a solid deal for the Texans, who have now instantly upgraded their offensive line by adding the veteran guard. As for the Bucs, this deal allows them to clear $5 million in cap space. Ravens cut Calais Campbell. The defensive tackle, who finished the 2022 season with 5.5 sacks, is now a free agent after being released on Monday. Campbell's sack total was the second highest on the team last season, but that wasn't enough to convince Baltimore to keep him. By dumping Campbell, the Ravens will free up $7 million in cap space. Jason Kelce not retiring. After losing multiple free agents over the past 24 hours, the Eagles finally got some good news: Jason Kelce is NOT retiring. Philadelphia's starting center has decided to return for at least one more year. Kelce has already agreed to terms on a one-year deal what will pay him up to $14.25 million. Bills free up $32 million in cap space. Don't be surprised if the Bills make a few moves this week and that's because they now have some salary cap room to work with. The team restructured the contracts of both Josh Allen and Von Miller, and those two moves freed up more than $30 million in cap space.
Jakobi Meyers signs with Raiders. The first day of free agency was a rough one for receivers with exactly ZERO of them getting signed. However, the drought is now over for receivers after Meyers agreed to a three-year, $33 million deal with the Raiders. Meyers will be reunited with Josh McDaniels, who was his offensive coordinator in New England for three seasons. Meyers is also returning to the site where he pulled off one of the most bone-headed plays in NFL history, and if you need a quick refresher on what that play is, you can see it here. |
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