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| Tuesday, December 24, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| Happy Holidays to everyone, except for my sister, who knocked me out of the fantasy football playoffs by beating me in the semifinals. I had Jalen Hurts and I knew I was doomed after he got injured five minutes into the game on Sunday. I also had the Packers defense, which almost pulled out a miracle win for me, but we came up just short, and now, I'm out. In related news, my sister's team is fraudulent and I will not be rooting for it in the finals. |
| Now that we have that out of the way, I have some good news for everyone: I ran into Santa last night, and it appears every one of you made the nice list this year. So, as a present from me to you, you're getting a newsletter today! |
| The NFL is also giving us some presents, and those will be coming on Christmas in the form of two big games. The Chiefs and Steelers will be starting the Christmas fun tomorrow with a game that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. After that, the Ravens and Texans will play at 4:30 p.m. ET. |
| Since the first game doesn't kickoff until 1 p.m., that should give you plenty of time to do everything you need to do on Christmas morning. For instance, I'm pretty sure my day is going to go something like this: Open presents, eat 14 pancakes, take a nap, drink some egg nog, take another nap, put together the complicated toys I got for my 4-year-old that I didn't need to get because she would have been just as happy with stuffed animal, and then watch the games. |
| In today's newsletter, we'll be previewing the two Christmas games. Plus, we'll be handing out some grades from Green Bay's Monday win over New Orleans and also be making some Week 17 picks. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends and neighbors to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. |
| 1. Packers destroy Saints: Grades and notes from Green Bay's Monday night win |
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| There's usually not much drama at the end of a blowout win, but there was Monday night and that's because the Packers were going for the first shutout of the NFL season, and they ended up pulling it off in a 34-0 win over New Orleans. Every season in NFL history has had at least one shutout by Week 8, but this year, the first one didn't come until the final game of Week 16. |
| Here are our grades from the game: |
| SAINTS GRADE: F |
| With Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave all out due to injury, this game was essentially over before it started. As bad as the Saints were, Spencer Rattler did drive the offense into Green Bay territory twice, but both of those drives ended with a turnover by Rattler. With zero points, the Saints became the first team this season to get shut out, and for that, they get an 'F.' |
| Saints notes |
| Saints are first team to get shut out this season. Going into Week 16, there had been zero shutouts in the NFL this season, but that changed Monday night with New Orleans becoming the first team to score zero points in a game. This marks just the second time that the Saints have been shut out in their past 369 games. This was the Saints' largest shutout loss since a 38-0 setback to the 49ers in January 2002. Saints off to worst start in nearly two decades. This team was once 2-0, but they're now 3-12 after losing 12 of their past 13 games. This is the worst start for the Saints since 2005 when they also started 3-12. After the 2005 season, the Saints hired Sean Payton, and now, they'll have the same opportunity after this season to make another big hire. |
| PACKERS GRADE: A+ |
| The Packers were so good in this game that they made the win look easy. The offense moved the ball at will on a night where the Packers scored a touchdown on each of their first three possessions. Matt LaFleur did a good job of getting everyone involved on offense, as eight different players carried the ball at least once and seven different players caught at least one pass. Josh Jacobs carried the load early for the Packers with 91 total yards and a touchdown in the first half before being sent to the bench early in the third quarter. Defensively, the Packers couldn't have been better: They pitched the first shutout of the NFL season. The upside of the blowout win is that the Packers got to bench their starters in the fourth quarter, which is a huge positive for a team that has to turn around and play the Vikings on Sunday. |
| Packers notes |
| Green Bay clinches a playoff spot. The Packers can't win the NFC North, but they did officially clinch a playoff spot with this win. The Packers still have a shot at the five seed in the NFC, but the most likely scenario is that they'll end up with the sixth seed. The Packers are now in the playoffs for the fifth time in six years under Matt LaFleur. Big-time shutout. Not only did the Packers pull off the first shutout of the NFL season, but it was tied for their second-largest shutout win of the Super Bowl era. Since 1966, the only bigger shutout win came in 2001 when Green Bay beat Washington, 37-0. This win marked the third time they've beaten a team 34-0. |
| Finally, you can check out our full takeaways from the game here. |
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| 2. Prisco's Week 17 Power Rankings: NFC North takes over the top five |
| The NFC North has officially taken over Pete Prisco's Power Rankings. After the Packers won Monday, Prisco moved them into his top five, which means the division now has THREE of the top-five teams in Prisco's rankings. |
| With that in mind, let's check out Prisco's top five: |
| Chiefs (up one spot from last week)Bills (up one spot from last week)Lions (up two spots from last week)Vikings (up one spot from last week)Packers (up one spot from last week) |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the Power Rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last Power Rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Carolina Panthers. I'm not sure what happened to Bryce Young when he got benched, but something apparently clicked. Since returning from the bench, Young has been playing at a high level, and that was one of the reasons Carolina was able to upset the Cardinals on Sunday. Thanks to the 36-30 win, Prisco bumped the Panthers up six spots from 26th to 20th. The biggest jump in the AFC went to the Las Vegas Raiders. With Aidan O'Connell at quarterback, the Raiders looked somewhat competent in their 19-14 win over Jacksonville. Prisco rewarded the Raiders for their win by moving them up four spots from 32nd to 28th.The biggest tumble this week went to the Arizona Cardinals. To stay alive in the NFC West race, all the Cardinals had to do was beat the Panthers, but they couldn't even do that. Prisco dropped them five spots for their overtime loss with Arizona falling from 16th to 21st. Finally, let's get the bottom of the Power Rankings. For the past two weeks, the Raiders were at the bottom, but this week, we have a new team in the cellar: THE NEW YORK FOOTBALL GIANTS. And based on how they've been playing the past few weeks, I won't be surprised if they stay at the bottom for the rest of the season.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 17 Power Rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
| 3. Breech's Week 17 NFL picks: Bengals and Vikings pick up big wins |
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| If your Christmas wish is for me to get all of my picks right this week, that's kind of crazy, because that's also my Christmas wish. Please make it happen Santa. |
| With that in mind, let's get to three of my picks for Week 17: |
| Denver (9-5) at Cincinnati (8-6): Over the past four weeks, the Broncos have given up 497 yards to Jameis Winston and 284 yards to Justin Herbert, so I'm not sure they're going to be able to stop Joe Burrow, who's playing better football than almost anyone right now. PICK: Bengals 27-24 over BroncosGreen Bay (11-4) at Minnesota (13-2): I feel like these two teams are pretty even, but with the Packers coming off a short week after playing last night AND being forced to go on the road for this game, I think I have to roll with Minnesota. Also, the Packers are 0-4 against teams that currently have at least 10 wins, but 11-0 against everyone else. And unfortunately for Green Bay, the Vikings fall into that first category. PICK: Vikings 30-27 over PackersAtlanta (8-7) at Washington (10-5): The Falcons could throw a wrench in the NFC playoff race with a win here. Not only would it take them one step closer toward clinching the NFC South, but it means the Commanders would likely be in a spot in Week 18 where they have to win just to make the postseason. The good news for the Commanders is that I don't think there will be any wrench-throwing. In this battle of rookie quarterbacks, I think Jayden Daniels outduels Michael Penix Jr. PICK: Commanders 30-23 over Falcon |
| If you want to check out the rest of my picks for Week 17, be sure to click here. |
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| 4. Ranking the teams best equipped to stop the Chiefs from a three-peat |
| The Chiefs might not look invincible this season, but the fact of the matter is that they're 14-1 and just one win away from clinching the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. If they get the top seed, it's going to be tough to stop them from making another Super Bowl run, but there are teams out there who could do it. |
| Chris Trapasso decided to take a look at the team that are best equipped to stop Kansas City in the playoffs, and here are the top four teams on his list: |
| 1. Vikings. "Offensively, the Vikings bring it with a wide array of options, headlined by superstar Justin Jefferson. Then there's Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. And even if the Chiefs could get after Sam Darnold, he's played out of his mind even when pressured -- with 12 touchdowns to four interceptions and 1,039 yards at a league-high 8.1 yards per attempt in that scenario entering Week 17. Given their unadulterated aggression, Mahomes' inability to elude rushers at his typical rate, and the surprisingly effective play from Darnold and his collection of plus skill-position players, the Vikings receive the top spot." |
| 2. Bills. "In the playoffs, where margins are narrowed, the outcomes often are decided by the play of the quarterback, and one of the very select few quarterbacks who can match Mahomes play-for-play is Josh Allen. Beyond him, this is quite easily the most potent ground game the Bills have boasted in the Allen era. ... I'd suspect the Chiefs would even admit the Bills are one of the scariest teams for them to face in the postseason, given the recent history between them and Buffalo's quarterback." |
| 3. Eagles. "The last team to score more than 30 points on Steve Spagnuolo's defense was the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII nearly two years ago, which is an astonishing fact. And now the Eagles have an MVP candidate at running back in Saquon Barkley... And the Eagles passing offense, headed by A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, could test Kansas City's cornerback depth after Trent McDuffie. Just as importantly, Philadelphia's defense has been completely revamped since that Super Bowl in early 2023." |
| 4. Lions. "The Lions went into Arrowhead Stadium and stunned the Chiefs to begin the 2023 season, and that's before we realized Jared Goff was an exquisite fit in Ben Johnson's offense with the Lions... Their injury-ravaged defense is probably not incredibly equipped to limit Mahomes and Co. in the playoffs, but the Lions are seemingly at peace with playing in high-scoring affairs, and if they make the Super Bowl, they'll likely be healthier defensively than they are now -- linebacker Alex Anzalone should be back on the field, and Aidan Hutchinson has even mentioned the Super Bowl is the goal for his return." |
| You can check out Trapasso's full list here. |
| 5. Christmas wish list for all 32 teams |
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| With Christmas coming tomorrow, we thought now would be the perfect time to put together a Christmas wish list for all 32 teams, so that's exactly what we're going to do. Jared Dubin was in charge of coming up with the wish list for each team. |
| Let's check out a few of the wishes: |
Giants: The No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft
Eagles: A quick recovery for Jalen Hurts
Bears: A coach to put Caleb Williams in position to succeed
Vikings: Wins over the Packers and Lions to close the season
Browns: A new quarterback
Bills: Another Chiefs loss
Chiefs: A third straight Super Bowl win |
| My Christmas wish is that you check out all of the Christmas wishes, which you can do here. Since we're in the Christmas spirit, we also went through and made a list of the biggest surprise gifts of the 2024 season, and you can check out that story here. |
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| 6. Christmas preview: Picks and best bets for the holiday doubleheader |
| Over the past 74 years, there have only been TWO Wednesday games played in the NFL, but that number is going to double tomorrow with a doubleheader being played on Netflix. And no, that is not a typo. Both games are actually on Netflix, which means if you don't have a subscription, you better ask Santa for one right now. |
| The first game of the doubleheader will feature Kansas City (14-1) at Pittsburgh (10-5) in a game that kicks off at 1 p.m. ET. The Chiefs have a lot on the line in this game, because if they win, not only will they clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC, but that will allow them to potentially rest their starters in Week18. |
| Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident: |
| Why the Chiefs can win: Patrick Mahomes has absolutely dominated the Steelers during his career. The Chiefs QB has played Pittsburgh a total of three times and gone 3-0 in those games. In the three wins, Mahomes has averaged 329.3 passing yards and 4.7 touchdown passes per game while the Chiefs have averaged 40 points per game. Andy Reid always seems to be a step ahead of Mike Tomlin's defense, and if that continues to be the case, the Chiefs could have a big day. Why the Steelers can win: This Chiefs defense doesn't have a lot of weaknesses, but you can throw the ball on them, which means if Russell Wilson has a big day, Pittsburgh might be able to pull off the upset. There have only been five games this season where the Chiefs have surrendered at least 240 yards passing and in those five games, the Chiefs are 4-1, but their four wins have come by an average of just 3.25 points. If George Pickens can play, that would help definitely help Wilson. On the other side of the ball, if the Steelers defense is able to force any turnovers, that would be a huge confidence booster. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Bryan DeArdo by clicking here. The Chiefs are three-point road favorites against the Steelers. |
| In the second game, we've got the Texans (9-6) hosting the Ravens (10-5) at 4:30 p.m. ET on Netflix. |
| Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident: |
| Why the Ravens can win: The Ravens are averaging 30.1 points per game, which makes them the third-highest scoring team in the NFL this year. If Baltimore can approach that number and turn this into a shootout, there's a good chance that they'll win. The Texans are 1-6 this season when their opponent scores 22 points or more while the Ravens are 10-0 when they score 25 points or more. Basically, if Lamar Jackson plays like he's been playing and Derrick Henry has another big game, it's hard to see Baltimore losing. Why the Texans can win: If the Texans can slow down Derrick Henry, that should give them a chance to win. The Ravens are 2-5 on the season when Henry is held under 90 yards, but they're 8-0 when he rushes for more than 90 yards. When Henry is able to run the ball, that opens up everything else for the offense (and makes life easier for Lamar Jackson), so slowing down Henry will be key. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Tyler Sullivan by clicking here. The Ravens are currently 5.5-point road favorites against the Texans. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the games, here are a couple of props I like: |
ONE PROP I LIKE FROM CHIEFS-STEELERS: Patrick Mahomes OVER 249.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Mahomes has gone over 249.5 yards in six of his past nine games, including Saturday's win over the Texans when he threw for 260 yards. Also, Mahomes has averaged 329.3 passing yards per game against the Steelers in his career and even if he falls 75 yards short of that number, he'll still have enough to hit the over. ONE PROP I LIKE FROM RAVENS-TEXANS: Lamar Jackson longest run OVER 15.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM): Jackson has had at least one run that's gone over 15.5 yards in 11 of Baltimore's 15 games this year, and I think we'll see that happen again in Houston. When Jackson sees an opening, he can usually hit it quickly, which usually leads to a big gain. During Baltimore's playoff win over the Texans last year, Jackson rushed for 100 yards with a long run of 23.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Ka'imi Fairbairn OVER 6.5 points (-110 at BetMGM): The Texans kicker has gone over 6.5 points in 11 straight games and I have no reason to think that streak is going to end now. Fairbairn has also gone over this number in 13 of Houston's 15 games on the season. Fairbairn is averaging 9.1 points per game this year and I won't be surprised if he gets right around that number against Baltimore, which would put him comfortably over 6.5. |
| And in case you're wondering, my props are now 40-30 on the season (20-13 on kicker props and 20-17 on all other props). |
| Of course, we also have some picks, so let's get to those. |
| PICKS FOR THE CHRISTMAS DOUBLEHEADER |
CHIEFS-STEELERS PICKS
My pick: Chiefs 31-20 over Steelers
DeArdo's pick: Steelers 27-24 over Chiefs |
RAVENS-TEXANS PICKS
My pick: Ravens 30-20 over Texans
Sullivan's pick: Ravens 30-20 over Texans |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, you can see who our eight experts are taking by clicking here. |
| Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night. |
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