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| Monday, November 13, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| As someone who is a fan of kickers, yesterday was arguably the most exciting day in NFL history for me. There were a total of five games that ended with a field goal being kicked as time expired, which is the most the NFL has ever seen in a single day in league history. |
| As I've always said, kicker is the most important position on the field. OK, so maybe it's not the most important, but kickers definitely add drama to the NFL and drama is good. Besides the kickers, we saw a lot of craziness that happened on Sunday and we'll be covering it all in today's newsletter. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's Show: Biggest questions after Week 10 |
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| If my eyes are totally bloodshot right now, it's because I stayed up until 2:17 a.m. last night recording a podcast with Will Brinson and Ryan Wilson. |
| The three of us touched on our 10 biggest takeaways from Week 10; here are a few of the biggest questions that we tried to answer: |
| Will the Texans win the AFC South? Two weeks ago, we debated whether the Texans would make the playoffs and the three of us agreed that they would. This week, we took things one step farther by debating whether they'll win the division. I absolutely think it's going to happen. I think the Texans have a better all-around roster than the Jaguars and they have an easier remaining schedule, which is going to open the door for them Houston to steal the division from the Jaguars. Wilson also thinks the Texans will win the division, but Brinson is sticking with the Jaguars. Should the Saints roll with Jameis Winston? The Jameis Winston experience can be a roller coaster ride, but Will Brinson doesn't care, he thinks the Saints should give him a shot to see if he can spark the offense. I'm not quite ready to see the Saints pull the plug on Derek Carr, but I'd have him on a short lease. After a Week 11 bye, the Saints play the Falcons in Week 12 and if Carr doesn't play well against Atlanta, I'd think about giving Winston a chance. Will Josh Dobbs lead the Vikings to the playoffs? The Vikings don't have Kirk Cousins and they don't have Justin Jefferson, but they somehow keep winning games. Right now, they hold the final wild card spot in the NFC and I think Dobbs is good enough to keep them there. At 6-4, if the Vikings can go just 3-4 down the stretch, a 9-8 record will likely get them in the postseason. |
| To check out the rest of our takeaways from Week 10, be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here, which you'll want to do if you want to see my sad Bruno costume. |
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| 2. Week 10 grades: Texans earn a 'B+' for upset win over Bengals |
| Every week I team up with four of my colleagues here at CBSSports.com to hand out grades, and this week, the Texans got an 'B+' for pulling off an upset win in Cincinnati. |
| Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Texans 30-27 over Bengals (Click here for full game stats) |
| Texans takeaway: Forget about winning rookie of the year, C.J. Stroud might soon be entering the MVP conversation. One week after breaking the single-game rookie passing record, Stroud had another huge game with 356 passing yards and two total touchdowns (one rush, one pass). Although Stroud turned the ball over three times, he more than made up for that by engineering a drive in the final 90 seconds that led to Matt Ammendola's game-winning field goal. Devin Singletary was just as good on the ground as Stroud was through the air with 150 rushing yards on a day where Houston piled up 544 offensive yards, which is the fourth-highest total in franchise history. Noah Brown played a big part in that with 7 catches for 172 yards. The Texans defense was equally impressive, shutting down the Bengals for a good chunk of the game while sacking Joe Burrow four times and picking him off twice. It's really starting to feel like this Texans team could end up winning the AFC South. Grade: B+Bengals takeaway: Did the Bengals get caught looking ahead to their game this Thursday against the Ravens? It's hard to say for sure, but either way, it felt like they were sleepwalking their way through most of this game. The defense got embarrassed by C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense, surrendering 544 yards, which is the most Cincinnati has given up since 2019. Even Joe Burrow seemed off. The Bengals QB threw two costly interceptions in the fourth quarter. As bad as they were, the Bengals somehow had a chance to win his late, but their defense couldn't stop Stroud in the final minute. They Bengals now only have four days to get their problems fixed before they travel to Baltimore for an AFC North showdown. Grade: C- |
| Cardinals 25-23 over Falcons (Click here for full game stats) |
| Falcons takeaway: We're 10 weeks into the season and the Falcons still seem confused about what they want to do on offense. After catching heat for not playing Bijan Robinson enough, Arthur Smith gave him plenty of playing time this week, and although his numbers were solid, the problem for the Falcons was that they couldn't throw the ball. (They totaled just 70 passing yards.) The fact that they couldn't throw the ball took away two of their biggest offensive weapons in Kyle Pitts and Drake London. The Falcons played relatively well before folding in crunch time. The Falcons have now lost three straight games. Their season seems to be slipping away. Grade: B-Cardinals takeaway: The Cardinals couldn't have scripted this game any better: In his first game since tearing his ACL last season, Kyler Murray led Arizona to a win, and he did that by engineering a drive in the final 2:33 that saw him take the Cards 77 yards to set up Matt Prater's game-winning field goal. The biggest benefactor of Murray's return might have been Trey McBride, who finished with 131 receiving yards, becoming the first Cardinals tight end since 1989 to top 100 yards. With Murray back in the lineup, it wouldn't be surprising if the Cardinals win a few more games over the final eight weeks of the season. Grade: B |
| As for all the other grades that we handed out on Sunday, you can check those out by clicking here. |
| 3. 14 crazy facts from Week 10: Kickers set record for game-winning field goals |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 10: |
High drama in Week 10. There were a total of five games that were decided with a field goal on the final play, which is the most for a single day in NFL history. The Browns, Seahawks, Texans, Lions and Cardinals all won with a kick as time expired.Ravens keep blowing leads. Since the start of the 2021 season, the Ravens have lost nine games when leading by seven or more points in the fourth quarter, the most by any team in any three-year span in NFL history. The Ravens led the Browns 31-17 in the fourth quarter on Sunday before losing 33-31. Browns end drought. Before Sunday, the Browns had been 0-59-1 against AFC North teams when trailing by 14 points or more at any point in the game, but that drought is now over. Also, the Browns trailed for 59 minutes and 20 seconds, making them the first team since 1999 to trail for at least that long but still win the game. C.J. Stroud comes up clutch. For the second straight week, Stroud led a game-winning drive in the final two minutes, making him the ONLY rookie QB over the past 40 years to do that in back-to-back games. Stroud has 2,626 passing yards on the season, which is the third-highest total ever for a rookie through his first nine games.
Texans match Manning's Colts. In their win over the Bengals, the Texans had a player with more than 350 passing yards, at least 150 receiving yards (Noah Brown) and at least 150 rushing yards (Devin Singletary), making them the first team to pull that off since the Colts did it in 1998. Steelers somehow keep winning. The Steelers are 6-3 despite being out-gained in EVERY game, which gives them the best record ever by any team that's been out-gained in nine straight games during a single-season. The next best record belongs to Washington, who went 4-5 while getting out-gained during a nine-game span in 2010. George Kittle is killing it. With 116 yards against the Jaguars, Kittle now has 559 for the season, making him just the fourth tight end in NFL history to hit the 500-yard mark in each of his first seven seasons.Points at a premium in Germany. The Colts' 10-6 win over the Patriots was the NFL's lowest scoring game of the season. Heading into Week 10, that honor previously belonged to a game from Week 7 when the Giants beat the Commanders 14-7. CeeDee Lamb goes off. With 11 catches for 151 yards against the Giants, Lamb has now finished with at least 10 catches and 150 yards in three straight weeks, making him the FIRST player in NFL history to pull off that feat. Dak hits 400 again. With 404 yards against the Giants, Dak Prescott has now thrown for at least 400 yards a total of 10 times in his career. That's tied with Dan Marino and Patrick Mahomes for the most 400-yard games by a QB through their first eight seasons. Cowboys crush the Giants. Not only did the Cowboys sweep the Giants this year, but they outscored them 89-17 in those two games. That 72-point scoring differential is the largest in the NFL since 2007, when the Patriots outscored the Bills by 77 points over two games. High-wattage player. With one sack against the Packers, T.J. Watt now has 88 for his career, which is the second most in NFL history through a player's first 100 games. Watt passed his brother, JJ, who had 87.5 in his first 100 games. T.J. Watt now has four games to try and catch Reggie White, who holds the record with 105. No one can cover Keenan Allen. The Chargers receiver went off against the Lions, catching 11 passes for 175 yards and two touchdowns. Allen now has 15 games with at least 11 receptions in his career, which is the most by any player in NFL history. Cardinals finally figure out how to use their tight end. For the first time in more than three decades. the Cardinals had a tight hit the 100-yard mark. Trey McBride ended the drought on Sunday by catching eight passes for 131 yards, marking the first time that a Cards' tight end had hit the century mark since Robert Awalt did it against the Cowboys in 1989. Awalt's game also came on Nov. 12, which means the two performances came exactly 34 years apart. |
| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL Week 10 winners and losers: Texans look like they have a bright future ahead of them |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list, which you can check out below. |
| Winners |
| The Texans' future. "A year ago this team was 3-13-1, with Lovie Smith controlling the sidelines. Now, quarterback C.J. Stroud and head coach DeMeco Ryans are the stars of the show; they both ooze composure typically associated with 10-year vets, and that was clear as day in crunch time against the Bengals... This club is bound to stay in the wild card race, but it's also shaping up to be one of the most popular leap-forward candidates beyond 2023."Joshua Dobbs. "The journeyman QB has now guided back-to-back wins while using both his arm and legs (and missing key weapons like Justin Jefferson). Don't be surprised to see his jersey popping up across U.S. Bank Stadium as the year goes on." |
| Losers |
| The entire Patriots organization. "If Houston is trending upward for both the short and long term, New England is doing the opposite. No one expected the Patriots to find new life in Germany on Sunday morning, but somehow their hapless defeat to the Colts was even more visibly deflating than anticipated for owner Robert Kraft and coach Bill Belichick, who may or may not be visualizing a forthcoming breakup." The Ravens' reputation. "All week, experts touted Baltimore as maybe the best team in the NFL at midseason... And then the Ravens went and blew another late lead to the rival Browns... The biggest concern here is this team's steady inability to close important contests; the Ravens have lost nine games when leading by 7 or points in the fourth quarter over the past three years alone." |
| If you want to see Cody's full list of winners and losers, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Monday preview: Prepping you for Broncos at Bills |
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| Don't look now, but Sean Payton is slowly turning around the Broncos (4-5). His team will be rolling into Buffalo tonight on a two-game winning streak. To keep that streak going, the Broncos will have to knock off a Bills team that is sitting at 5-4 and will be extremely desperate for a win. The oddsmakers are expecting the Bills to take care of business with Buffalo currently favored by seven points. |
| My good buddy Jared Dubin put together our deep-dive preview for this game here at CBSSports.com, and here's how he sees the game playing out: |
| Why the Broncos can win: The Broncos have been looking to establish the run over the past few weeks and it's been working. During their two game-winning streak, Javonte Williams went over 80 yards in each game and Denver is now 2-0 on the season when he hits that number. Williams will be going up against a Bills defense that surrenders an average of 4.9 YARDS PER CARRY, which ranks 30th in the NFL. If Williams can get going tonight, that will take pressure off Russell Wilson while keeping the Bills offense off the field and it will open the door for Denver to possibly pull off the upset. Why the Bills can win: The Bills will be facing a Broncos defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in almost everything. The Broncos have surrendering an average of 405.9 yards per game and 28.3 points, which both rank 32nd. The Bills should be able to move the ball as long as the play smart football. This means that Josh Allen can't go full gunslinger. When he takes care of the ball, the Bills generally win. In his career, the Bills are 9-14 when he has two or more turnovers in a game, but 48-14 when he has one or zero turnovers. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Jared by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here's one prop I like: |
| ONE PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 6.5 points (-130). Opposing kickers have been having huge games against Denver this season. When the Broncos play, opposing kickers have been averaging nine points per game and if Bass hits that number, that would allow him to comfortably hit the over. Bass hasn't gone over 6.5 points a single time in the past five weeks, but I think this is where his drought ends. The Broncos defense has been pretty good in the red zone this year, so I don't be surprised if the Bills are forced to settle for field goals in this game. |
| My prime-time prop record is 14-7 this year. |
| Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have tonight: |
Jared's pick: Bills 27-17 over Broncos
My pick: Bills 23-16 over Broncos |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of us are taking the Bills to win, but we're split down the middle on whether they'll end up covering the spread. |
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| 6. Extra points: 'Hard Knocks' kicks off next week |
| It was a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Date set for debut of 'Hard Knocks' with the Dolphins. The in-season version of 'Hard Knocks' is going to be featuring the Miami Dolphins this year and the show will be making its debut on Nov. 21. After that, the show will be airing every Tuesday until Jan. 9. You can see the preview here. Bill Belichick landing spots. If the Patriots decide to part ways with their coach (or trade him away), we took a look at some potential landing spots for Belichick and you can check those out here. One team on the list? The Los Angeles Chargers. Who doesn't love the idea of Belichick in L.A.? That guy was made for Hollywood. Michael Thomas arrested. The Saints receiver was arrested on misdemeanor charges over the weekend after he got into an altercation with a man who was doing construction work in his neighborhood. Thomas was released shortly after his arrest and he did suit up on Sunday against the Vikings, although he was eventually forced to leave the game with a knee injury. You can read more about his arrest here.
Former first-round pick dies in car crash. D.J. Hayden, who was the 12th overall pick by the Raiders in the 2013 NFL Draft, died early Saturday after a car he was in was hit by another car. A total of six people died following the tragic crash, which happened in Houston. For a closer look at what happened, you can see our full story here. |
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