| | | | Monday, October 7, 2024 | | Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! | | I can't say this with certainty, but I think Week 5 might have just set the all-time record for longest span of NFL action ever on a Sunday. The first game kicked off at 9:30 a.m. ET in London and the day of action wasn't over until the NEXT day. The Sunday night contest between the Steelers and Cowboys actually ended on MONDAY. The game got delayed by 90 minutes, which means it didn't kickoff until 9:45 p.m. ET and it didn't end until almost 1 a.m. ET. | | If you see anyone trying to sneak a nap in at work today that's why. On the other hand, if you see anyone reading this newsletter at work, give them a high-five, because that means they're awesome. You know what else is awesome? Everything we're covering today. We've got grades, we've got winners and losers, plus we'll be making some picks for tonight's game in Kansas City between the Saints and Chiefs. | | As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. | | 1. NFL Week 5 grades: Bears earn 'A+' as Caleb Williams shines | | | | Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: | | Bears 36-10 over Panthers (Click here for full recap) | | Panthers takeaway: The Panthers offense got a big spark after Andy Dalton was given the starting job, but it seems like that spark has now been extinguished. The Panthers actually had an impressive opening drive that ended with a Chuba Hubbard TD, but the wheels fell off the wagon after that. It also didn't help that the Panthers defense got carved up by Caleb Williams, who threw for 304 yards. At this point, it feels like it doesn't matter who's at QB for Carolina, this team just isn't going to win too many more games this season with the talent it has. Grade: F Bears takeaway: This game went about as perfectly as possible for the Bears: Caleb Williams had a breakout day and the defense looked dominant. For the first time this season, Williams looked to be in TOTAL command of the Bears offense on a day where he completed 69% of his passes for 304 yards and two touchdowns, which both went to DJ Moore. Williams had a strong connection with Moore, who caught five passes for 105 yards. With Williams looking better every week, the Bears could turn into a surprising playoff contender this year, especially when you add in the fact that their defense has also been strong. Grade: A+ | | Ravens 41-38 over Bengals (Click here for full recap) | | Ravens takeaway: The Ravens defense couldn't stop Joe Burrow, but that didn't matter, because Lamar Jackson was around to save the day. The Ravens QB had one of the most impressive passing days of his entire career on Sunday with 348 yards and four touchdowns. Every time it looked like the Ravens might be out of it, Jackson would get them back in it. He kept the Bengals defense guessing by completing his 26 passes to nine different receivers. Seven of those were caught by Zay Flowers, who had a monstrous game with 111 yards. If Jackson continues to throw the ball like this, the Ravens are going to be nearly impossible to beat. Baltimore also got a confidence-boosting performance from Justin Tucker, who hit a 56-yard field goal to tie things in the fourth quarter before hitting the game-winner in OT. With three straight wins, the Ravens suddenly look like the best team in the AFC North. Grade: BBengals takeaway: The Bengals let this one slip away. Joe Burrow threw a career-high five touchdown passes, but those went to waste due to some late mistakes, some conservative coaching and a defense that couldn't stop Lamar Jackson. Although Burrow played perfect football for nearly 57 minutes, he threw an interception late in the game that led to a game-tying field goal. The defense did a great job of bottling up Derrick Henry for most of the game, but then gave up a 51-yard run in OT that set up the game-winning field goal. Zac Taylor called a great game on offense, but then the Bengals went totally conservative in overtime with three runs, which forced Cincinnati to settle for a 53-yard field goal that Evan McPherson missed due to a bad hold. This team is good, but it's not good enough to overcome mistakes like that. At 1-4, the Bengals season is now hanging on by a thread. Grade: B- | | As for the other 22 grades that I handed out in Week 5, you can check those out by clicking here. | | | | 2. NFL Week 5 winners and losers: Big week for big underdogs | | You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. | | Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list and we're going to check out his winners below. | | WINNERS | | Patient Bears fans (Bears 36-10 over Panthers). "For weeks, Caleb Williams looked ill-prepared for the NFL, and D'Andre Swift looked incapable of breaking out of Chicago's stuffy backfield. That's all changed in a hurry, with Williams slinging it with newfound touch and confidence to give the Bears a massive lead over the Carolina Panthers to start Week 5. Yes, it's the Panthers, but to see he, Swift and D.J. Moore now making splash plays as a group bodes well for what's ahead in the Windy City." Big underdogs (Giants and Cardinals). "Few expected the Cardinals to give the 49ers much trouble, and for a while Sunday, Kyle Shanahan's superior squad seemed just that: superior. Then the wheels started falling off, from a Jordan Mason fumble to a collapsed Brock Purdy pocket, and before you know it, the scurrying Kyler Murray helped Arizona snap a two-game slide to shake up the West. Meanwhile, the Giants survived a Seahawks comeback bid with a dramatic field-goal-block touchdown return, pulling Daniel Jones and Co. within one game of a .500 mark in the NFC East."Brian Flores' head-coaching prospects (Vikings 23-17 over Jets). "On a day the New York Jets made rejuvenated old friend Sam Darnold look human, the Minnesota Vikings still got the better end of a defensive slugfest in London, with Flores' ever-versatile unit confusing, pressuring and repeatedly picking off Aaron Rodgers. Andrew Van Ginkel is like a walking pick six in the linebacker corps, and the veteran secondary once again benefited from a persistent front. Flores' oversight is undoubtedly one of, if not the, primary reason the Vikings are 5-0 right now." | | If you want to see Cody's list of losers, be sure to click here. | | 3. 14 crazy facts from Week 5: Lamar Jackson makes NFL history | | | | Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. | | With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 5: | Lamar Jackson makes NFL History. The Ravens QB threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns while also rushing for 55 yards, which is notable, because it makes him the first QB in NFL history with multiple career games with at least 300 passing yards, 50 rushing yards and four TD passes. Jackson must really like playing in Week 5 because he also accomplished the feat in Week 5 of the 2021 season. Derrick Henry hits major milestone. With 92 rushing yards against the Bengals, the Ravens running back now has 10,074 for his career. Henry became the 32nd player to hit that milestone, but first since Marshawn Lynch did it in 2017. Henry also scored his 100th career touchdown against the Bengals. Defenses dialed up long-distance touchdowns in Week 5. There were two defensive touchdowns of at least 100 yards on Sunday, marking the first time in NFL history that there have been multiple defensive scores of 100 yards or more in the same week. The touchdowns came from Denver's Patrick Surtain II (100-yard pick six) and Seattle's Rayshawn Jenkins (102-yard fumble return). Jayden Daniels makes his own history. Jayden Daniels became the first player in NFL history to have at least 1,000 passing yards and 250 rushing yards in his first five career games. Daniels has 1,135 passing yards and 300 rushing yards through five weeks. With the Commanders at 4-1, Daniels is just the third rookie QB since 1970 to start and lead his team to a win in four of the first five games of the season. Daniels joins Buffalo's Joe Ferguson (1973) and Dak Prescott (2016). Josh Allen struggles with accuracy. The Bills QB completed just 9 of 30 passes (30%), which means he finished with the lowest completion percentage by any QB with at least 30 attempts since 1992. Allen went 0 for 13 on passes that traveled 15 yards or more in the air, which was the worst showing by any QB since air yards were first tracked in 2006. Money McKinney comes up big for Packers. The Packers safety recorded an interception against the Rams and now has an interception in all five games that Green Bay has played. That makes McKinney the first player since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 with an interception in his first five games with a new team. Blocked field goal party. There were two touchdowns scored off blocked filed goals in Week 5, marking the first time that's happened since 2012 and just the seventh time in NFL history. New York's Bryce Ford-Wheaton returned a blocked field goal 60 yards for a touchdown against Seattle while and San Francisco's Deommodore Lenoir got a 61-yard TD off a blocked field goal against the Cardinals. Quarterbacks finally have a big week. Through the first four weeks of the season, there has only been one instance where a QB threw for at least 330 yards with at least three touchdowns passes (Jordan Love in Week 4). In Week 5, that happened a total of FOUR times with Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco all accomplishing the feat. Underdogs continue to shine. The Giants and Cardinals were both an underdog of at least seven points on Sunday and both teams won. With those wins, teams that are an underdog of a touchdown or more are now 7-2 straight-up on the season, which is the best five-week showing ever for big underdogs. Since 1970, there's only been one other five-week span where seven-point underdogs even had a winning record (They went 7-6 from Weeks 4 thru 8 in 1990). Home sweet home for Caleb Williams. The Bears rookie quarterback is now 3-0 at home after Chicago's win over the Panthers. He's now just the fourth rookie QB since 1950 to win his first three home starts while also throwing zero interceptions in those games. He joins Matt Ryan (2008), Russell Wilson (2012) and Tua Tagovailoa (2020). Aaron Rodgers hits a major milestone. With 244 yards against the Vikings, Rodgers now has 60,148 for his career, making him just the ninth player in NFL history to cross the 60,000-yard mark.. Deshaun Watson is having a down year. The Browns QB now has five straight games where he's thrown the ball 25 times or more with less than 200 passing yards, which is tied with Donovan McNabb (2003) for the longest streak to start a season in the past 75 years. The silver lining here for Watson is that McNabb did end up making the NFC title game in 2003 despite his rough start.Bears get Moore production. With 34-yard TD catch and a 30-yard TD catch in the first half against Carolina, D.J. Moore became the first Bears player with two receiving touchdowns of at least 30 yard in a first half since 1970 (James Scott).
Vikings have been historically dominant. Not only are the Vikings 5-0, but they've been so dominant that they've only trailed for a total of 3:26 this year, which is fifth-fewest minutes trailing by any team through five weeks since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The only four teams that were better -- the 1984 Dolphins, 1999 Rams, 2009 Saints and 2023 49ers -- all ended up making the Super Bowl with the Rams and Saints both winning. | | If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. | | | | 4. NFL Week 5 overreactions: Is Aaron Rodgers washed up | | Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 5 to decide if we're all overreacting. | Statement: Aaron Rodgers is washed up.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Rodgers and the Jets are 2-3 and have as many points scored in 2024 as they do in 2023 (93). Rodgers has just 1,093 passing yards, 6.0 yards per attempt, and a passer rating of 81.6 -- all the worst through the first five games of his career. Perhaps "Father Time" has caught up with Rodgers. This certainly isn't the Rodgers we are accustomed to seeing." | Statement: Bengals will miss the playoffs.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Bengals are 0-3 in the AFC and are 0-4 in one-score games. This isn't a recipe for the playoffs, even though they don't play a team with a winning record until Week 10 (Ravens). The schedule gets easier, but playing the Ravens in Baltimore and the Steelers twice doesn't help. The Bengals likely have to go 10-7 to make it, so they would have to finish 9-3. Hard to ask out of this team right now." | Statement: Commanders will win the NFC East.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "The Commanders already have as many wins as last season and are second in the league in scoring (31.0 PPG) and the defense has held three of five opponents below 20 points this season. So will they win the NFC East? Washington belongs in the conversation, but let's see how the Commanders fare against Philadelphia and Dallas. The way the Commanders are going, it may not matter." | | There are plenty more overreactions from Week 5, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. | | 5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Saints at Chiefs | | | | The final game of Week 5 will be a reunion of sorts with Derek Carr heading to Kansas City. During his time with the Raiders, Carr played at Arrowhead a total of nine times and he went 1-8 in those games. Carr and the Saints (2-2) will be looking to hand the Chiefs (4-0) their first loss of the season. | | Jared Dubin put a preview together for this game, and here's how he sees things playing out: | | Why the Saints can win: A big reason New Orleans won its first two games of the season is because Alvin Kamara was running wild. In their two wins, the Saints rushed for an average for 185 yards per game with a good chunk of that coming from Kamara. If the Saints running back can get going this week, that should take some serious pressure off of Derek Carr. If the Chiefs are focused on stopping Kamara, that should open things up for Carr. Since Carr was signed in 2023, the Saints are 4-0 when they hit 150 rushing yards, so if they can figure out how to run the ball on Kansas City, there's a good chance they'll be able to pull off the upset. Why the Chiefs can win: The Saints have struggled to stop the run this year and if the Chiefs are smart, they'll look to exploit that. The Saints defense is surrendering 4.8 yards per rush, which is one of the worst numbers in the NFL. If the Chiefs can get their ground game going, that will take some pressure off Patrick Mahomes, who will be playing his first game of the season without Rashee Rice. The loss of Rice, who leads the team in receptions and receiving yards, is a big one, but it will soften the blow of losing him if the Chiefs rushing attack can consistently move the ball on the ground. Of course, this is Patrick Mahomes we're talking about, so it's also possible he throws 14 passes to Travis Kelce for 112 yards and three touchdowns and the Chiefs win that way. | | You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. | | If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. | | ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Kareem Hunt OVER 58.5 rushing + receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM): In his first action of the season last week, Hunt totaled 85 yards (69 rushing and 16 receiving). He proved that he can handle a big workload, which is why I think we'll see the Chiefs utilize him just as much tonight. Also, with Rashee Rice out, we could see a few more checkdowns from Patrick Mahomes, which could boost Hunt's receiving total. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Harrison Butker OVER 7.5 points (-120 at BetMGM): The Chiefs' high-powered offense has been struggling a little this year, which has led to more opportunities for Butker. The Chiefs kicker has gone over this number in three of four games this season and with Kansas City facing a Saints team that has surrendered an averaged of 2.5 field goals per game through four weeks, this feels like a safe bet. | | And in case you're wondering, my props are 12-10 on the season (6-4 on kicker props and 6-6 on all other props) | | The guys over at SportsLine have a full betting preview that you can check out here. | | PICKS FOR 'MNF' | Dubin's pick: Chiefs 20-13 over Saints
Prisco's pick: Chiefs 31-20 over Saints
My pick: Chiefs 20-17 over Saints | | Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, all eight of our NFL experts are taking the Chiefs to win straight-up. However, when it comes to the spread, only six of our eight experts are taking the Chiefs to cover as a 5.5-point favorite. | | | | 6. Extra points: Patriots starter arrested on multiple charges | | It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. | | Jabrill Peppers arrested on multiple charges. The Patriots safety is facing charges of assault and battery, assault and battery with a dangerous weapon, strangulation and possession of cocaine following an incident that took place Saturday. It's not clear if the Patriots knew about the arrest before today, but he was inactive for Sunday's game against the Dolphins due to a shoulder injury. You can read more details on the situation here. Raiders not sure who will start at QB in Week 6. It took five weeks, but it looks like the Raiders finally have a QB controversy. Gardner Minshew was benched for Aidan O'Connell during the team's 34-18 loss to the Broncos, and after the game, coach Antonio Pierce admitted that he doesn't know who the starter will be this week against the Steelers. Minshew threw two interceptions, including a pick six, in the loss to Denver. Browns not making QB change. Despite playing another bad game, Deshaun Watson won't be losing his job. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski stood firmly behind his beleaguered QB following Sunday's loss to the Commanders. "We're not changing quarterbacks." You can read his full comments here. Watson threw for just 125 yards in the 34-13 loss. Romeo Doubs suspended for bizarre behavior. The Packers receiver was suspended for Green Bay's Week 5 game against the Rams after skipping multiple practices last week. The Packers are expecting him to be back for this week's game against the Cardinals. Buccaneers evacuating Tampa. With Hurricane Milton about to hit Tampa, the Buccaneers have decided to evacuate the city. The Bucs are playing the Saints this week and they'll be heading to New Orleans on Tuesday to prepare and then spending the week in the Crescent City as they prepare for their Week 6 game. Injury roundup. There were a lot of injuries on Sunday, and we're tracking all of them here. If you click over, you'll read about injuries to Aaron Rodgers (sprained ankle), De'Von Achane (Concussion) and Nico Collins (Hamstring). We covered every big injury from Week 5 and if you want to see who got banged up, once again, you can do that here. | | | | | | | | 24/7 Sports News | | Golazo Network | Stream CBS Sports HQ, your free, 24/7 snapshot of all the sports that matter to you. Catch highlights, in-depth analysis & breaking news anywhere you are. Download the CBS Sports App to watch today.
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