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| Monday, October 14, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Monday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| I'd like to start things off here by wishing a late happy birthday to Jerry Jones. His birthday was actually yesterday and if his birthday wish was for the Cowboys to win, then he wasted his wish because his team got destroyed by the Lions, 47-9. This loss was so bad that Jones probably shouldn't even bother celebrating his birthday next year. |
| In today's newsletter, we'll be taking a closer look at how bad the Cowboys' beatdown was, plus we'll be naming some winners and losers for Week 6 and we'll be making picks for tonight's game between the Bills and Jets. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. NFL Week 6 grades: Cowboys get an 'F' on Jerry Jones' birthday |
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| Every Monday, we hand out grades, so that's exactly what we're going to do right now. Here's a look at the grades from two notable games that were played Sunday: |
| Ravens 30-23 over Commanders (Click here for full recap) |
| Commanders takeaway: The Commanders defense has been the team's biggest weakness all season and that was definitely their biggest issue in this game. They couldn't stop the run, they couldn't stop the pass and really, they couldn't stop anything the Ravens did on a day where Baltimore piled up nearly 500 yards. The defense, which was on the field for 36 minutes, seemed to wear down in the second half. Offensively, the Commanders rushing attack got bottled up and although Jayden Daniels threw the ball pretty well, he also faced a lot of pressure (He was sacked three times). Although they lost, the Commanders should feel good about the fact that they went toe-to-toe with one of the NFL's best teams. Grade: B- Ravens takeaway: It's hard enough to stop the Ravens offense when Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are running the ball well, and it's almost impossible when the air attack is also working and the air attack was working on Sunday. For the second straight game, Jackson threw for over 300 yards and he did a good job of spreading the ball around with three receivers all finishing with at least 60 yards. Zay Flowers was the star of the show with nine catches for 132 yards, which all came in the first half. Henry -- AKA the human steamroller -- tacked on 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns. This offense was already scary and it seems to be getting better every week, which should frighten the rest of the NFL. Grade: A- |
| Lions 47-9 over Cowboys (Click here for full recap) |
| Lions takeaway: The Lions showed up to Dallas and ran the Cowboys off their own field. Ben Johnson and the offense threw the kitchen sink at the Cowboys with a creative offensive game plan that included a nice 52-yard flea-flicker TD to Sam LaPorta. That was one of three TD passes for Goff. The Lions' rushing attack bullied the Cowboys with David Montgomery leading the way (12 carries for 80 yards and two touchdowns). The Lions defense might have actually been better than the offense: Dak Prescott was sacked four times and the Lions also forced five turnovers. The only problem for the Lions is that this victory came at a huge price with Aidan Hutchinson suffering a gruesome leg injury. Grade: A+Cowboys takeaway: On Jerry Jones' 82nd birthday, the Cowboys celebrated by nearly giving up 82 points. OK, the Lions didn't quite hit that number, but it felt that way. The Cowboys did nothing right and this team has a lot of problems that can't easily be fixed. They can't run the ball, they have no receivers behind CeeDee Lamb and the defense is missing its two best players. The only saving grace for the Cowboys is that they can't get blown out next week because they're on a bye. Grade: F |
| As for the other 22 grades that I handed out in Week 6, you can check those out by clicking here. |
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| 2. NFL Week 6 winners and losers: Bad week for two former playoff coaches |
| You can't have a week of NFL action without having winners and losers, so we have some winners and losers. |
| Cody Benjamin came up with this week's list and we're going to check out his losers below. |
| LOSERS |
| Doug Pederson (Jaguars lose to Bears, 35-16). "If the Bears' stock is way up after their trip to London, Pederson's is near rock bottom. Trevor Lawrence isn't perfect, but the entire offensive operation was once again a liability in a blowout loss to Chicago. Now 1-5 on the year, Pederson is mirroring his own collapse as lightning-in-a-bottle Eagles coach"Kevin Stefanski (Browns lose to Eagles, 20-16). "Yikes. On a day Jim Schwartz's defense actually kept the A.J. Brown-led Eagles within reach, Deshaun Watson was once again unable to elevate a downtrodden offense, the banged-up line suffered yet another major injury, and both the pre-snap fundamentals and critical-down play calls left a lot to be desired."The Saints' season (Saints lose to Buccaneers, 51-27). "Rookie Spencer Rattler showed some nice zip to his passes filling in for Derek Carr, that's for sure. But they've now lost four straight after a surprisingly hot start under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and Dennis Allen's defense surrendered almost 600 yards to the rival Buccaneers." |
| If you want to see Cody's list of winners, be sure to click here. |
| 3. 14 crazy facts from Week 6: Cowboys get embarrassed at home |
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| Every Sunday night, I get an email from our research department here at CBS Sports, and every Sunday, that email always includes some amazingly wild facts about the games that were just played. |
| With that in mind, here are 14 crazy facts about Week 6: |
Cowboys get historically embarrassed. The Cowboys' 47-9 loss to the Lions marked the largest home loss under Jerry Jones, who bought the team in 1989. They also trailed 27-6 at halftime, making them just the second team in NFL history to trail by 15 points or more at halftime in four straight home games. The Cowboys have also now allowed 167 total points in their last four home games, which is the most in a four-game span since the Oilers gave up 176 from 1972 to 1973.Lions-Cowboys ends with a scorigami. The 47-9 final score marked the first time that score has ever happened in the NFL. It was the 1,087th unique final score in NFL history. There have been three scorigamis in the NFL this year and the Cowboys have now been involved in two of them. High-flying Lions. With 47 points against the Cowboys, the Lions have now scored at least 40 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1962. That Lions team went 11-3, but didn't make the playoffs because only one team from their division advanced to the postseason. Ravens train keeps rolling. With 176 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders, the Ravens are now the second team in the Super Bowl era to rush for at least 150 yards and one rushing TD in the first six games of a season. The only other team to pull that off was the 1971 Raiders. Lamar Jackson makes move past Cam Newton. With 40 yards against the Commanders, Lamar Jackson has now moved past Cam Newton for second place on the NFL's all-time list for most rushing yards by a quarterback. Jackson is at 5,661 while Newton has 5,628. King Henry is keeping Hall of Fame company. Derrick Henry finished with 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns, marking the 20th time in his career he's rushed for at least 100 yards and two touchdowns. He's now just the the fourth player in NFL history to accomplish that feat in 20 different games and every other player who did it eventually was inducted to the Hall of Fame: Jim Brown (25 games), LaDainian Tomlinson (25) and Emmitt Smith (21). Caleb Williams in uncharted territory. With the Bears improving to 4-2, Caleb Williams became the first No. 1 overall pick in the common draft era (1966) to lead his team to a 4-2 record during his rookie year. With his performance against the Jaguars, Williams also became just the second rookie to complete 75% of his passes while throwing at least four touchdowns and rushing for at least 50 yards. Williams joins Robert Griffin III, who did it in Week 11 of the 2012 season.Buccaneers' big day. The Bucs piled up 594 yards against the Saints, which set the franchise record for most yards in a game. The previous mark was set in 2020 when the Bucs totaled 588 yards in a game with Tom Brady at QB. The Bucs also became just the fifth team in NFL history to throw for at least 300 yards and rush for at least 275 yards in the same game. Rough start for Eagles. The Eagles have scored zero points in the first quarter this year, making them the only team in the NFL that has yet to score a point in the opening period. This marks the first time since 1934 that the Eagles have gone through the first five weeks of the season without scoring a point in the first quarter. Saints find new way to lose. With their loss to the Bucs, the Saints became the first team since the 1950 Colts to score 27 points with three interceptions, but still lose by at least 24 points. Cole Kmet plays two positions. The Bears tight end had a wild day in London. Not only did he catch two touchdown passes, but he also served as the long snapper on extra points after Chicago starter Greg Daly went down with an injury. Prime-time woes continue for Daniel Jones. With the Giants' 17-7 loss to the Bengals on Sunday night, Jones is now 1-14 in his career in prime time, which is the worst record of any QB who has at least five starts in prime time since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970.Kings of the North. Through six weeks, the NFC North has a combined record of 17-5, which is the best record by any division through Week 6 since at least 1970. Also, all four teams in the NFC North have at least four wins through the first six weeks, which marks the first time that's ever happened since the divisions were realigned in 2002. Maye Daye. In his first career start, Drake Maye made some history. Not only did the Patriots rookie throw three touchdown passes, but he also led the team in rushing with 38 yards, making him the first QB to lead his team in rushing AND throw for at least three TD passes in his first career start since at least 1950.
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| If you see any other fun facts, feel free to tweet them at me. |
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| 4. NFL Week 6 overreactions: Will Mike McCarthy get fired? |
| Everyone on the internet loves to overreact to things, and that's especially true when we're talking about the the NFL. With that in mind, Jeff Kerr decided to take a look at several things that happened around the NFL in Week 6 to decide if we're all overreacting. |
Statement: Mike McCarthy will get fired during the Cowboys' Week 7 bye.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Even with the bad football, the Cowboys are still in the playoff hunt at 3-3 and not even close to being out of the NFC East race. A bye week could be a time to fire McCarthy, but it's too early to make that change. The Cowboys don't look good, but they still have a chance" |
Statement: Bears will make the playoffs during Caleb Williams' rookie year.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction. "Why can't the Bears make the playoffs? Has anyone checked the NFC North lately? The NFC North has the best record by any division though Week 6 since the 1970 merger. It's the only division since the merger featuring every team with four-plus wins through Week 6. Something will have to give at some point. The Bears will have to play their division at some point. They have all six games against the NFC North to go, so it's fair to reserve judgment on their playoff hopes for now." |
Statement: This is the best rookie QB class ever.
Overreaction or reality: Reality. "Drake Maye made his first career start on Sunday and threw for more touchdown passes (3) than the Patriots did in their first five games (2). Maye is the first quarterback since at least 1950 with 3+ passing touchdowns to lead his team in rushing in his first career start. The top three picks have made an instant impact as rookies. They are carrying this rookie quarterback class to levels never seen before." |
| There are plenty more overreactions from Week 6, and if you want to check those out, be sure to click here. |
| 5. Monday night preview: Picks and best bets for Bills at Jets |
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| The final game of Week 6 will be a divisional showdown at MetLife Stadium between the Bills and Jets. This will mark the first game that the Jets have played since they surprisingly fired Robert Saleh on Oct. 8. Not only is Jeff Ulbrich taking over as interim coach, but the team will also have a new play-caller with Todd Downing taking over for offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett. |
| Basically, this is an intriguing game that will definitely be worth watching. |
| Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into tonight: |
| Why the Bills can win: The Jets will be going into this game with one of the best defenses in the NFL, but the Bills won't be intimidated and that's because they have Josh Allen. If Allen is able to dice up the Jets defense, the Bills will almost certainly walk away with a win. The problem for Buffalo is that Allen has been erratic this season. He's completed less than 60% of his passes in two games this year and the Bills are 0-2 in those games. Over the course of his career, 60% has been kind of a magic number: The Bills are 48-13 when Allen completes at least 60% of his passes. With RB James Cook (toe) and WR Khalil Shakir (ankle) both listed as questionable, it's going to fall on Allen even more tonight to keep the Bills offense humming. Why the Jets can win: It's not clear what the Jets offense is going to look like with Todd Downing now calling plays, but if he's smart, he'll make sure to go with a run-heavy attack tonight. Through the first five weeks of the season, the Bills have been one of the worst teams in the NFL at stopping the run, giving up an average of 144 yards per game. If Breece Hall and Braelon Allen can both get rolling, that should open things up for Aaron Rodgers, and if that happens, the Jets might be able to pull off the upset. |
| You can get a full preview of the game from Dubin by clicking here. |
| If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props. |
| ONE RUSHING PROP I LIKE: Breece Hall OVER 55.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM): Hall has only gone over this number once this season, so this pick is kind of a risky one, but with a new offensive coordinator calling plays, I feel like we'll see the Jets emphasize their rushing attack tonight. They're 2-0 this season when they rush for at least 100 yards and I think Todd Downing will make that a point of emphasis to hit that number against the Bills. If that happens, there's a good chance we'll see Hall top the 55.5 mark. ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Tyler Bass OVER 6.5 points (-130 at BetMGM): The Bills kicker has gone over this number in four of the first five weeks and that number would be five of five if he hadn't missed a field goal in Week 4 against the Ravens. It's also worth noting that opposing kickers are averaging 2.4 field goals per game against the Jets, which is the fourth-highest number in the NFL. Basically, I feel like we'll be seeing a lot of Bass tonight and if we see a lot of him, that almost certainly means he'll be hitting the over. |
| And in case you're wondering, my props are 15-11 on the season (8-4 on kicker props and 7-7 on all other props). |
| The guys over at SportsLine have a full betting preview that you can check out here. |
| PICKS FOR 'MNF' |
Dubin's pick: Bills 20-16 over Jets
Prisco's pick: Bills 20-17 over Jets
My pick: Jets 22-19 over Bills |
| Over on our CBSSports.com picks page, our eight NFL experts are totally split on this game with four of us taking the Bills and four of us taking the Jets. Of note: NFL Draft guru Ryan Wilson is 12-0 so far this week with his picks and he's taking the Bills. |
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| 6. Extra points: Lions star out indefinitely |
| It's been a busy weekend in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
| Aidan Hutchinson out indefinitely after suffering gruesome injury. The Lions star is done for the rest of the regular season and likely longer after breaking the tibia in his left leg against the Cowboys on Sunday. It was a gruesome injury, and as soon as it happened, it was pretty clear that Hutchinson was going to be out for an extended period of time. The Lions star currently leads the NFL with 7.5 sacks. The only silver lining for Hutchinson is that the injury apparently wasn't a "worst-case scenario." The Detroit News is reporting that the 24-year-old could return for the Super Bowl if the Lions make it that far. You can read more about Hutchinson's situation here. Tua Tagovailoa expected to return this season. For the first time since his concussion, the Dolphins are acknowledging that they expect to have Tua back at some point this season. On Monday, Mike McDaniel said Tua will play at some point, but right now, the team isn't sure when that return will happen. Right now, Tua is currently on IR and he has to miss one more game, which means the earliest he'd be eligible to return would come in Week 8 vs. the Cardinals. If he's back for that game, that means he'll have had a month and a half to recover. You can check out McDaniel's full comments on Tua here. Haason Reddick hires a new agent. Four days after getting fired by his agency, the Jets pass-rusher has hired a new agent in Drew Rosenhaus, who will be looking to work out a deal for the disgruntled star. Reddick has already missed five games while holding out for a new deal and he's about to miss another tonight when the Jets play the Bills. Nick Chubb expected to return this week. The Browns running back hasn't played a single game this year as he continues to recover from a gruesome knee injury he suffered in September 2023. However, he has been practicing with the team over the past two weeks, and now, he's expected to make his debut. According to Cleveland.com, Chubb is trending toward a Week 7 return and could be on the field this week when the Browns play the Bengals. Browns not making QB change. Despite playing another bad game, Deshaun Watson won't be losing his job. Browns coach Kevin Stefanski stood behind his beleaguered QB following Sunday's loss to the Eagles. Stefanski had a one-word answer when asked if Watson would remain the QB: "Yes." Chargers forced to briefly use interim coach against Broncos. Jim Harbaugh missed the start of Sunday's game to an arrhythmia (irregular heartbeat). The Chargers coach was taken to the locker room just before kickoff, but then returned about halfway through the first quarter. Harbaugh then led his team to a 23-16 win over the Broncos. You can read more about his situation here. Patriots might cut Jabrill Peppers. The Patriots safety is facing charges of assault and battery, assault and battery with a dangerous weapon, strangulation and possession of cocaine following an incident that took place on Oct. 5. Patriots owner Robert Kraft said the team is going to cut Peppers if the charges turn out to be true, "If what was reported is true, he's gone," Kraft said over the weekend, via PFT. Injury roundup. There were a lot of injuries on Sunday, and we're tracking all of them here . If you click over, you'll read about injuries to Marvin Harrison Jr., Chris Olave and Patrick Surtain II, who all left their respective games after being evaluated for a concussion. We covered every big injury from Week 6, and if you want to see who got banged up, once again, you can do that here. |
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