| From today, every day gets shorter until the sweet release of death winter solstice in six months. | Unless you’re in the Southern Hemisphere. Then it’s the other thing. |
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| | Tired of startups that never take off? | Startup investing can be terrific, even life-changing. | But startups can take a long time to get going, and there's no guarantee they ever take off. | | If you want to wait months before you see a payout, not years, then sign up for WebStreet. | WebStreet acquires real companies that are making a profit, and let you invest with them. | Forget the hype. Focus on real cashflow with WebStreet. | | | 📰 Market Headlines | | The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched new records before closing lower, weighed down by chip stocks and economic data. Nvidia lost its spot at the top to Microsoft after shares declined nearly 3.4%. The chipmaker's market cap fell by around $91 billion. New unemployment claims declined, however total benefit recipients hit the highest level since January.
Anthropic announced Claude 3.5 Sonnet, its most powerful artificial intelligence model to date. New York has become the latest state to ban addictive social media algorithms for teens, requiring parental consent and limiting overnight notifications.
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| | 🕶️ Market Vibes | 🎰 Market Forecasts and Futures | Forecasts via Kalshi, the prediction market. | | 😱 Fear and Greed Index | | | 🎤 What you said last time | Narrative violation! Possibly because you’re reading this newsletter every day. | | 📈 Trends you need to know | | China’s military has increased military spending faster than the US for over a decade. |
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| | 🧠 What do you think? | An American four-star general predicts the US and China will be at war by the end of 2025. | A kinetic war between the US and China would have devastating impacts on US markets. Here are some key effects: | Stock Market Crash:
The uncertainty and fear generated by a direct military conflict would trigger a massive sell-off in stock markets, not only in the US but globally. Investors would rush to safer assets, leading to a sharp decline in stock prices and market capitalization. Supply Chain Disruptions:
Significant disruptions in global supply chains would occur, particularly in technology, consumer goods, and manufacturing sectors that rely heavily on Chinese components and raw materials. This would lead to inflation, shortages, and slowed economic growth. Decreased Investor Confidence:
Investor confidence would take a significant hit. The risks associated with military conflict, including the potential for cyberattacks on financial institutions, would make investments much more volatile and uncertain. Increased Defense Spending:
The US government would likely ramp up defense spending considerably, potentially leading to higher taxes and budget reallocations from other sectors such as social services and infrastructure. Energy Market Volatility:
The instability could lead to volatile energy prices, especially if the conflict disrupts supply routes or leads to embargoes. This would affect not just the energy sector but also industries reliant on energy costs.
| How worried are you about a war with China? | | | 📊 Stocks | | | Winners and losers | Earnings, upgrades, and acquisitions | Accenture rose 7.7% despite missing Q3 estimates due to $900 million in new AI bookings. Kroger beat Q1 earnings and sales expectations, however shares fell 3.3% due to EPS decline.
| Market movers | TikTok warned a US ban is inevitable without a court order blocking ByteDance's required divestment. The Biden administration announced the ban of Kaspersky antivirus software in the US due to national security risks. California's workplace safety board approved new rules to protect indoor workers from extreme heat, excluding state correctional facilities. CDK Global was hit with a second cyberattack, causing POS outages across US car dealerships. Cara Therapeutics announced plans to cut 70% of staff after a failed medical trial.
| Ideas, trends, and analysis |
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| US jobless claims fell to 238,000 last week, while housing starts dropped 5.5% in May. The Bank of England kept rates at 5.25%, warning a premature cut could stoke inflation before the election. Social Security is an "up for grabs" issue for older voters, with 80% saying it's extremely or very important in determining their vote. US trade with China dropped to under 10% of total US trade, the lowest in 20 years.
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| | 🌍 Global Perspectives | 🇵🇭 🇨🇳 The Philippines accused China's Coast Guard of a "brutal assault" with bladed weapons in the South China Sea. 🇰🇪 Worldcoin has resumed operations in Kenya after police dropped an investigation into data collection allegations. 🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Ukrainian drones set ablaze two Russian oil refineries in their ongoing campaign against Russia's oil infrastructure. 🇮🇳 The State of Global Air 2024 report found that in India, air pollution kills 464 children under five daily, surpassing deaths from tobacco and diabetes.
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| | 📊 Crypto | | VanEck's spot Bitcoin ETF launched on the Australian Securities Exchange. Italy has announced plans to impose fines up to €5 million for crypto market manipulation ahead of EU's MiCA regulations. Aptos Labs partnered with NBCUniversal in a multi-year deal to revolutionize fan experiences through blockchain technology. Blockchain security firm CertiK returned $3 million in exploited funds to Kraken.
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| 🧠 Errata | Astronomers saw a supermassive black hole roar to life in real-time for the first time. 580,000 glass coffee mugs were recalled for breaking when filled with hot liquid. Seems like an oversight. A baby moose, described as “a sure demise,” was saved after getting itself wedged between a floatplane and a dock.
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| | 📺 What to Watch Today | Better than a rock and a hard place. |  | Watch: Moose calf rescued from between a floatplane and a dock in an Alaska lake |
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| | That’s all for today. Did I miss anything? Smash the reply button to let me know. | Cheers, | Wyatt |
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