The ChatGPT-creator's $40 billion fundraiser, the US president's latest tariffs, and a 12-foot-tall Twitter sale |
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Hi John, here's what you need to know for March 28th in 3:15 minutes.

  1. OpenAI inched closer to a record-breaking $40 billion fundraising deal – one that would double the ChatGPT creator’s valuation
  2. You need to watch what the top 10% are spending – Read Now
  3. The US announced yet another new tariff: a 25% tax on foreign-made vehicles and auto parts

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Talk Isn’t Cheap
Talk Isn’t Cheap

What’s going on here?

OpenAI looks set to finalize a $40 billion funding round – a deal that would value ChatGPT’s creator at a gossip-worthy $300 billion.

What does this mean?

SoftBank is reportedly fronting $7.5 billion in the initial round, with another $30 billion slated to come later this year. Add in support from venture capital firm Founders Fund and tech investor Altimeter, and you’re looking at the biggest-ever fundraiser for a private company. The deal would nearly double OpenAI’s valuation from just five months ago – and, in fairness, the startup’s earned it. Revenue is expected to hit nearly $13 billion this year – more than triple last year’s figure and just shy of $30 billion next year. But even with all that cash, OpenAI’s still far away from profitability: the firm doesn’t expect to actually make money until 2029.

Why should I care?

For markets: AI has commitment issues.

AI models are raising the red flag over… themselves. And we’re not just talking about chatbots divulging their global takeover plans. A top-ranked investment fund that’s powered by machine learning has flagged AI-heavy Big Tech stocks like Nvidia and Meta as overpriced and overly volatile. Surreal recognizes surreal, it seems. The fund is favoring under-the-radar names and industrial stocks instead.

The bigger picture: You can’t blame the bots for erring on the side of caution.

There’s plenty of money in AI. Just look at Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta, who spent a combined $246 billion last year. That’s 63% more than the one before, with the majority going toward data centers. And this year, the foursome think they’ll spend $320 billion. But all that spending could come back to bite them. Those big-ticket items will show up as an expense on their books for years to come (as their values “depreciate”, falling over time). And unless the firms can raise their revenue by a matching amount, that could squeeze profit margins.

You might also like: Invest like a venture capitalist.

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FROM OUR RESEARCH DESK

Why Your Portfolio Should Care About The Top 10%

Stéphane Renevier, CFA

Why Your Portfolio Should Care About The Top 10%

The US consumer has been the economy’s most enchanting performer, pulling off a seemingly effortless magic act. But like any good sorcery, what you see upfront isn’t the whole story.

Look more closely, and the sleight of hand starts to show. So let’s break down the whole gambit here and sort out what’s real and what’s an illusion.

And let’s start with this: the top 10% of earners – folks making over $250,000 a year – are now responsible for half of all consumer spending. Not a typo: half. That’s up from just a third in the 1990s.

That’s today’s Insight: why your portfolio should care about the top 10%.

Read or listen to the Insight here

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Make Acceleration Great Again
Make Acceleration Great Again

What’s going on here?

The US president announced a new 25% tariff on imports of foreign-made cars, presumably nostalgic for the days of Cadillacs and Mustangs ruling the roads.

What does this mean?

The new levy – landing on top of existing tariffs – will impact fully assembled vehicles from April 3rd. And from May 3rd, the tax will also apply to auto parts like engines, transmissions, and electrical systems. Despite many assuming that escalating tariff threats are thinly veiled attempts at bringing governments to the negotiating table, the president said this batch will be “permanent” – with no exceptions.

The government believes these taxes could bring in $100 billion a year and tempt automakers to move their production stateside. But industry experts say they’ll disrupt global supply chains and push vehicle prices up – at a time when consumers are already worried about inflation. Almost half of the vehicles sold in the States are imported, and cars that are assembled in the country contain nearly 60% foreign-sourced parts.

Why should I care?

For markets: There goes the getaway car.

Investors ditched their shares in carmakers from all over the world after the announcement. That included US firms like Ford and General Motors, European stalwarts, and major brands from Japan and South Korea – each of which exported around $40 billion worth of cars to the US last year. But Tesla might cruise through the whole thing: the EV maker uses American factories to make all the cars it sells in the US, which should shield it from the full effects of these tariffs.

The bigger picture: America wants everything matchy-matchy.

The US’s broader “reciprocal tariffs” will also start in April – they’re new import taxes designed to even out imbalances between the States and its trading partners. Beyond matching existing levies on American goods, the US wants to make up for the financial impact of non-tariff policies like subsidies, regulations, and value-added taxes (or VATs).

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QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I love mankind; it's people I can't stand."

– Charles M. Schulz (an American professional cartoonist)
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🎯 On Our Radar

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