Good morning, investors. A record stock market has a way of pushing the bad times deep out of our memory. Investors seem to have forgotten the uncertainty and pessimism that defined much of the first half of the year, and they’re putting that enthusiasm on full display.

Editor’s note: If you haven’t yet, we would love if you could help us improve this newsletter by taking our 3-minute reader survey. It helps us understand what’s working and what you’d like to see next.

Bull case, front and center

Who knew the combination of tariffs, an Iran conflict, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and the underperformance by the Magnificent Seven would push the stock market back toward record highs? 

Not only that, but after lagging all year, the S&P 500 is officially tracking for an above-average post-election year, with about a 4% gain at the halfway mark. 

All three US benchmark indexes are now positive in 2025, despite falling into a correction in March and narrowly missing a bear market in April. 

The S&P 500 is up more than 22% since its April low, outperforming the Magnificent 7 group by nearly 5%.

The rebound has been so abrupt that investors who dumped stocks during President Trump’s “Liberation Day” uncertainty have already missed out in a big way, as the chart below illustrates. 

Driving the momentum have been a series of tariff negotiations and deescalations, as well as peace talks between Israel and Iran brokered by President Trump.

More trade deals may be announced before July 9, when the White House’s 90-day pause is scheduled to end, and markets so far reflect optimism. 

A weakening US dollar, too, has fueled stocks.

According to Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi, CIO of global equities for UBS Global Wealth, a depreciating dollar will persist in the second half of the year as US growth moderates and the Fed eventually cuts rates. 

“Such a backdrop will serve as a tailwind for tech stocks, as overseas sales account for over 50% of US tech companies’ revenue,” she wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

“This means profits earned abroad would translate into a direct boost in bottom lines, supporting a strong earnings outlook driven by rising AI spending.”

Meanwhile, veteran economist David Rosenberg, who typically leans bearish, said the technical set up has also improved in recent weeks, supporting a “spring-summer rally.”

“While this cannot exactly be described as a rally based on the fundamentals,” Rosenberg said, “the technical picture has improved considerably as the gaps get filled with ease and the cumulative daily advance-decline lines for both the NYSE all-issue composite and the S&P 500 make fresh all-time highs.”

To be sure, valuations remain stretched near levels seen at the peak of the dot-com bubble, based on forward-earnings estimates. 

Even so, optimism among investors continues to pick up.

Historical data shows that buying stocks at all-time highs can generate slightly better returns versus buying at any other time. 

Market snapshot

Elsewhere

🛢️Shell is in talks to acquire BP. A deal for the rival business would be worth roughly $80 billion, and it would be a landmark combination for two supermajor oil giants. Acquiring BP would strengthen Shell’s position versus Exxon Mobil and Chevron. (WSJ)

📈 BlackRock’s Rick Rieder sees record highs for stocks ahead. He’s confident the market can go even higher in the second half of 2025 as inflation keeps cooling and AI technology improves: “I think it’s the greatest technology revolution ever…my personal view, inflation is coming way down.” (CNBC)

🤖 Mindstream is how 200,000+ readers keep on top of AI. The daily newsletter delivers actionable insights and news you need to know to stay ahead of the curve and maximize AI in your life. The best part? It’s completely free. Join the club and get smarter on AI in minutes a day.

Rapid-fire

Partner content:

Turn AI Hype Into Business Impact

AI is more than just using ChatGPT.

It’s about understanding how the technology works—and applying it in practical ways to solve real business problems.

The AI for Business & Finance Certificate Program from Wall Street Prep + Columbia Business School Exec Ed helps you move beyond the hype.

You’ll demystify today’s most important tools and learn just enough Python to streamline workflows, automate tasks, and make smarter decisions.

No coding experience needed—you’ll get step-by-step guidance from world-class faculty.

👉 Save $300 with code SAVE300.

Enroll Today & Save $300

Last thing

About me

📰 I’m Phil Rosen, co-founder and editor-in-chief of Opening Bell Daily. I’ve published books, lived on three continents, and won awards for my journalism, which has appeared in Business Insider, Fortune, Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg and Inc. Magazine.

I write our flagship newsletter to prepare you for each trading day — unpacking markets, economic data and Wall Street with analysis you won’t find anywhere else.

Feedback? Reply to this email, ping me on X @philrosenn, or write me directly at phil@openingbellmedia.com.