Donald Trump will be the 47th president of the United States. From stocks to currencies, every corner of the market rallied overnight as the votes rolled in, bets were cashed, and Trump claimed victory across every key battleground state.

Today we’re unpacking what’s moving in markets and how the Trump Trade has expanded.

If this was forwarded to you, sign up to receive this newsletter directly in your inbox.

A new everything rally

With Trump’s victory in the books, the Trump Trade is dominating global markets and everything is green.

Stocks have soared for months on a combination of upbeat earnings and rate-cut expectations. All that accelerated overnight as a Trump victory crystallized, with pre-market trading for all US equity benchmarks accelerating.

Here’s what’s moving as of 5:55 a.m. in New York:

Prediction markets ultimately proved more accurate than state and national polls, in every case calling local results well ahead of any mainstream media outlets. Kalshi, for one, called the election for Trump several hours ago while CNN, Bloomberg, and others only did so a few minutes ago, as of this writing.

In any case, the S&P 500 has had its best election year up to November 5 since 1936 with about a 23% gain, according to Dow Jones market data, and a Trump win has already added to those gains.

Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors, said his firm raised its S&P 500 price target for the end of the year from 6,600 to 7,000 based on the election results.

“The combination of a Fed easing cycle, AI driven technology boom and a pro-business administration is extremely bullish for the stock market,” Hatfield said.

Meanwhile, Trump Media & Technology stock, the most obvious play on the Trump Trade, gained 32% early Wednesday.

It’s seen meme-like volatility throughout the campaign season. Its share price has closely traced Trump’s momentum, rising and falling with his election odds.

Trump holds a 57% stake in the Truth Social parent-company, which has a market capitalization of about $7 billion.

Bitcoin has similarly moved in concert with key events through Trump’s campaign, including both assassination attempts, the launch of his crypto project and his widening lead on prediction platforms. 

Around 10 p.m. Tuesday, it touched at an all-time high above $75,000 and continued to hover at that level early Wednesday.

Bitcoin has climbed 67% in 2024.

Finally, here’s what $393 million in wagers show on Kalshi:

Comments or feedback? Reply directly to this email or let me know on X @philrosenn.

Elsewhere:

📈 Crypto is soaring. Bitcoin breached records while the meme-token dogecoin also soared nearly 20% overnight. Part of the former’s spike can be chalked up to a $94 million liquidation of bearish bets against bitcoin, Coinglass data shows. (CoinDesk)

📊 Voters picked between contrasting economic realities. Americans took to the polls Tuesday with two competing economic stories in mind: strong growth and painful inflation. Consumer confidence remains split between political parties, though most Americans report that the economy is currently moving in the wrong direction. (WSJ)

🏦 Goldman’s big promotion cycle is here. The Wall Street bank plans to add the most executives to its partnership level since David Solomon took over. Promotions will roll out this week and should exceed the previous high of 80, set in 2022. It’s part of the bank’s bi-annual ritual to tap top-performers to join the 1% at Goldman Sachs. (Bloomberg)

Rapid-fire:

Last thing:

Interested in advertising in Opening Bell Daily? Email phil@openingbellmedia.com