| | | | Friday, March 28, 2025 | | New year, new me. That seems to be the approach Mackenzie Gore is taking to the 2025 season, and at least on Opening Day, he looked like the absolute best possible version of himself. | | Gore absolutely dominated an excellent Phillies lineup on Opening Day, dicing them up for 13 strikeouts in his six shutout innings, allowing just one hit and no walks. And he did it with a whole new approach that could help him solve his biggest issue so far in the majors, his struggles against left-handed hitters. | | Gore debuted a new slider in this one, taking about five mph off the pitch and adding a bit of extra two-plane break. His slider last season had morphed into more like a cutter, sitting at 91 mph with minimal break, and while it proved to be a useful weapon against right-handed hitters, lefties had no issues with it, sporting a .365 expected wOBA against it with a paltry 24.2% whiff rate. Gore's confidence in this new-look pitch was evident in his approach, as 95% of his pitches to lefties were either four-seamers or sliders – he didn't throw the slider once to a righty. | | That wasn't the only change he made, as Gore also debuted a new cutter that played like a traditional cutter, featuring less drop than last year's slider with similar horizontal movement. He threw six of them, exclusively to righties, and he generated three whiffs with the pitch, which is a pretty good sign for a first time out. He also threw a handful of changeups and curveballs to righties, as he did last season, and both pitches were generally pretty effective for him. | | Gore flashed upside at multiple points last season, but consistency was hard to come by, so I don't want to anoint him as the Next Great Ace because of this performance -- I thought he was making the leap after a couple of starts last April only for a slump to derail the hoped-for breakout. But it's impossible not to be impressed by this kind of showing, and it makes Gore one of the key pitchers to watch over the next few weeks. If what he showed on Opening Day was for even a little bit for real, I think there could be top-25 SP upside here. Now, he just has to show it wasn't a fluke. | | It's important not to overreact to Opening Day, of course – it's just one game. But the kind of changes Gore made could be potentially transformative, and it would similarly be a mistake to totally ignore it just because it's only one game. I'm even moderately inclined to throw out a few buy-high offers out for Gore this weekend because if I could get him for just a top-60 SP price like he was drafted as there's plenty of room for profit there. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we're going to look at some other standouts from Thursday's nearly full slate of action around MLB, beginning, as we will almost every day, with a look at the top waiver-wire targets. Nobody can dramatically change how we value them in one day, but there were plenty of intriguing performances around the league that are worth taking note of. Let's start there before we get to the rest of what you need to know from the first day of games: | | | | Opening Day Waiver Targets | | | | Tyler Soderstrom, 1B, Athletics (45%) – If Soderstrom actually had catcher eligibility to open the season, he probably would've been 100% rostered already. If Opening Day was any indication, he might just need to be anyway. I don't actually think he's anywhere close to that point, but homering twice on Opening Day, on balls hit 108.7 and 111.4 mph, sure is eye-opening. Soderstrom is the A's starting first baseman and possible, occasional backup catcher, and he'll be a lot more interesting for Fantasy if and when he gets five appearances behind the plate. But he showed plus power in 61 games in the majors last season, and has 40 career homers in 155 career games between Double-A and Triple-A, so this might be a bat that plays anywhere. | | Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Tigers (43%) – Torkelson forced his way back into the Tigers' plans with a big spring, and he didn't show any signs of slowing down in the first game. Torkelson homered, but perhaps most impressively, he walked four times in his other four trips to the plate. Plate discipline has always been an issue for Torkelson, even when things were going well, and it's way too early to say this is a new, improved version of him. But this is a guy who had 31 homers and 182 combined runs and RBI two years ago at the MLB level, so I'm totally willing to take a flier on him just in case he's figuring it out again. | | Kyle Manzardo, DH, Guardians (39%) – And there's a third young, slugger who had a big Opening Day, as Manzardo missed the cycle by just a single, going 3 for 4 with a walk and four RBI as well. He started and homered off a lefty, which could be a big deal, as we assumed he was just a platoon bat. The reason I would rank him below Soderstrom and Torkelson is because he is DH-only for Fantasy right now, but I think the margin separating all three is extremely slim. | | | | Lars Nootbaar, OF, Cardinals (43%) – We've been burned before by promises of Nootbaar's impending breakout, so I understand if you're hesitant. But he's always had impressive skills, including well above-average quality of contact metrics last year and a strong approach at the plate. And now he's hitting leadoff for the Cardinals to open the season, a nice little boost to his value that would make him worth adding in most Fantasy leagues even before he homered and scored two runs on Opening Day. | | Wilyer Abreu, OF, Red Sox (69%) – Hitting three balls over 108 mph isn't a guarantee of anything – Fantasy also-rans like Ryan McMahon, Elias Diaz, and Jesus Sanchez all accomplished it in 2024, for example – but you've gotta admit, it's a pretty neat trick. I've never been a huge believer in Abreu, but I'd be lying if I said he was totally without merit – he had 24 homers in 89 career Triple-A games, after all. The key will be improving his plate discipline because the physical tools are absolutely here. One game proves nothing, but given his raw power and athleticism, Abreu has some upside worth chasing, certainly. | | Jose Alvarado, RP, Phillies (12%) – The Phillies went out and added Jordan Romano this offseason, but there were some signs this spring that he might not be the go-to closer, and he certainly wasn't on Opening Day. Romano came into the game in the eighth inning with a 3-1 lead, which is a classic setup man situation, with Alvarado only coming in for the ninth after Romano allowed two runs on a walk and a hit. Alvarado worked a perfect ninth in a tied game, striking out two with his already impressive velocity up 2.1 mph on his sinker. That doesn't necessarily mean Alvarado is the closer moving forward, but in their first opportunity, the Phillies didn't go to their offseason addition, so I don't think we can just assume Romano is the guy. Alvarado is going to matter in this bullpen, and Orion Kerkering might, too. At the very least, if you didn't invest much in closers in drafts, Alvarado is well worth adding. | | Tony Santillan, RP, Reds (7%) – With Alexis Diaz opening the season on the IL, the closer spot was wide open for the Reds. Santillan was a trendy pick after Terry Francona mentioned him as a candidate, but on Opening Day, Santillan worked the ninth, with Francona turning to familiar face Ian Gibaut, who he had with him when he was in Cleveland. That didn't go well, as Gibaut labored and gave up four runs while recording just two outs, so I think we can probably rule out Gibaut for the next save. Santillan might be the next guy up after being used as a setup man Thursday, so I'll chase him if Alvarado isn't available. | | Sean Burke, SP, White Sox (34%) – Burke didn't quite challenge Garrett Crochet 's breakout Opening Day performance from a year ago, but he wasn't bad. He led with his slider, throwing it 28 times on 73 pitches while showcasing a five-pitch mix. He had a decent eight swinging strikes overall, though turned them into just three strikeouts over six innings against a beatable Angels lineup. This is not a "run out and add him everywhere" situation, but Burke has some strikeout upside based on his minor-league track record, and he sure didn't look overmatched in his debut, so I'm keeping an eye on him. | | | | A few bullpen thoughts | | Before we get to the biggest performances to know about, some quick thoughts on the weird bullpen usage from Thursday in a few spots: | | Reds – One thing to add here is that Francona did mention after the game he said he should have flipped Emilio Pagan and Gibaut's roles, implying that Pagan should have gotten the first save. That could mean he'll get the next one, though I just don't think he's a viable option for the ninth inning in the long term given his flyball issues. I'm betting on Santillan here. Red Sox – Justin Slaten got the save here, but I really don't think he's worth chasing; Aroldis Chapman faced the 2-3-4 spots of the lineup for the Rangers in the eighth with the game tied, which feels like a perfectly viable spot to use a closer in. I suspect he's still the guy. Dodgers – Tanner Scott worked the eighth inning in this one, and he now has just one of the Dodgers' first three saves. He's still the most likely pitcher to lead this team in saves, but this could be as messy as we thought it might be back when he initially signed. Royals – Lucas Erceg came into the game in the seventh inning trailing by one to face Jose Ramirez, which isn't necessarily closer-type usage, but it is a pretty high-leverage situation. The Royals were expected to use Erceg in a fireman type role, focusing on high-leverage situations; sometimes that will be the seventh inning, and sometimes it'll be the ninth. He'll get his share of saves, but he won't dominate them. That's what I expected coming in. Pirates – David Bednar got the ninth inning with the game tied, and while I have some issues with the game management here – after he gave up a leadoff triple, they intentionally walked the next batter, only to allow him to steal second, taking away the force out, so why not walk the next batter, too? That aside, Bednar's struggles from last season bled into the spring, and then he struggled in his first appearance of the season, which is bad news. Worse still is the Pirates don't really have a good option to turn to besides Bednar, which means he could keep getting opportunities, whether he deserves them or not. Rangers – Chris Martin worked the seventh inning with two outs and two runners in a tie game; say it with me, folks, that's a fireman's role. The Rangers turned to Luke Jackson with the game still tied in the ninth and he gave up a three-run homer to lose it. Let's see if Martin gets the next opportunity. | | Opening Day Standouts | | Tarik Skubal, Tigers @LAD: 5 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 2 K – It's Opening Day against the Dodgers. I have zero concerns. Next question. | | Logan Gilbert, Mariners vs. OAK: 7 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K – I don't want to say this was as good as we've ever seen him, but it wasn't far off. | | Sandy Alcantara, Marlins vs. PIT: 4.2 IP, 2 H, ER, 4 BB, 7 K – He looked awesome. The line wasn't exactly what you wanted to see, and the command especially wasn't terribly sharp. But the stuff was 100% back in his first start back from Tommy John surgery, and the command should follow. And here's one key stat: 91 pitches. There's no short leash here; there might not be any kind of leash. | | Framber Valdez, Astros vs. NYM: 7 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 4 K – He looked excellent, as he so often does. The nice thing to see here was the 34% curveball usage – Valdez really took off around the midway point of last season when he went from throwing his curveball less than 30% of the time to pushing near 40%. More curveballs tend to be a better thing for Valdez's strikeout rate, so don't be concerned about the paltry total here. | | Michael King, Padres vs. ATL: 2.2 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 3 K – Maybe he's just a slow starter. At the very least, King deserves a lot of the benefit of the doubt for how he turned his season around after a miserable April last year, so I won't panic about this one. His command was terrible, but there wasn't much to be concerned about in his pitch data. I'm not concerned. | | Blake Snell, Dodgers vs. DET: 5 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Snell was in early-season form here – remember, this is a guy who has looked flat-out droppable in the first couple of months of the season in like four straight seasons. This wasn't the outing you were hoping for, but you should have known going in that there would be performances like this from Snell. On the plus side, he did have 14 swinging strikes and just an 82.9 mph average exit velocity, so there's nothing to be concerned about here. | | Logan Webb, Giants @CIN: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K – Webb didn't seem to have his feel for the changeup for long stretches last season, and it didn't seem to be there in this one, as he threw it just 12% of the time. We don't really have a model for what an effective version of Webb looks like without his changeup being a big part of his approach, so this is certainly something to keep an eye on moving forward – this was the second-lowest changeup usage rate he's had in a start over the past four seasons. | | Zac Gallen, Diamondbacks vs. CHC: 4 IP, 4 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Yeah, this one was pretty tough to watch. Gallen was sitting around 94-95 mph in the first two innings, but his command abandoned him in the second, and he came back in the third sitting more like 91-92 mph. Unless there's an injury discovered later, I won't be too worried about this one, but it definitely wasn't what I wanted to see at the start of what I hoped would be a bounceback season for Gallen. | | Freddy Peralta, Brewers @NYY: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 8 K – Peralta gave up a leadoff homer to Austin Wells to open the game and then surrendered another solo shot to Anthony Volpe in the second when it looked like the game might get away from him. But he settled in, allowing just two more singles and generally looking pretty electric, with 14 swinging strikes on 93 pitches – six of them on his four-seamer, which was an issue in 2024. He fixed a mechanical flaw that bothered him last season, and I think this was a pretty encouraging start – especially since neither of the homers he allowed would have been out in more than 10 other parks. | | Carlos Rodon, Yankees vs. MIL: 5.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 7 K – Rodon looked pretty good in this one, especially with his changeup, which generated 10 swings on 18 pitches despite throwing just two of them in the strike zone. That led to three whiffs, four foul balls, and a 65.5 mph average exit velocity on three balls in play, which is pretty excellent. His slider was typically terrific, and it allowed him to avoid leaning on his fastball too much – it's no longer a plus pitch for Rodon, so keeping that arsenal expanded is important. | | Clay Holmes, Mets @HOU: 4.2 IP, 5 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 4 K – Ah! Well. Nevertheless. That expanded arsenal Holmes had this spring was there, but he clearly didn't have the feel for his new pitches, throwing his cutter, changeup, and four-seamer just a combined 11 times. That left Holmes trying to navigate a tough Astros lineup multiple times with primarily the same arsenal he had as a closer, and it didn't go well. Holmes deserves some time to work through things, just like King did in his own transition from the bullpen a year ago. But I'm certainly less confident he's going to hit the ground running than I was during the spring, and if he wasn't facing the Marlins in his next start, I would consider sitting him. | | Sonny Gray, Cardinals vs. MIN: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 6 K – The velocity wasn't all the way there, as Gray sat 1.4 mph down on his sinker and a little less on the rest of his pitches. But it was hardly the disaster some feared he might be, with 12 swinging strikes on 77 pitches and generally pretty good command. And the velocity was up from the spring, so I think the worst-case scenario here might be avoided. | | Nathan Eovaldi, Rangers vs. BOS: 6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 9 K – Eovaldi leaned on his curveball a bunch in this one and it was excellent, garnering whiffs on 10 of 15 swings. That's usually a pitch he throws around 15% of the time, but a quarter of his pitches in this one were curveballs, so we'll see if that usage sticks. | | Luis Severino, Athletics @SEA: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 4 BB, 6 K – He looks like the same guy: Useful, but unlikely to be much more than that outside of the right matchups. If you have him, hanging on to him is fine until someone with more upside comes along. | | Jackson Chourio, OF, Brewers – Five strikeouts in a game is known as a "platinum sombrero" and Chourio was rocking one today. That .469 batting average in Spring Training feels like a long time ago, doesn't it? To be clear: I have absolutely no concerns about Chourio whatsoever, but it's just funny how that didn't carry over in his first game at all. He's still a star. | | Fernando Tatis/Manny Machado, Padres – The Padres seemed intent on challenging Braves catcher Drake Baldwin in his first-ever MLB start, as Tatis and Machado both had two steals, with Xander Bogaerts adding one of his own. One notable quote from Tatis to highlight: "Last year I was standing on one leg. You can really see how healthy I'm at right now. … It's a huge part of my game, one of my favorite parts of the game. I really missed it." Tatis has the athleticism to go 30-30 or even 40-40 if he wants to. | | Adley Rutschman, C, Orioles – Some of my other favorite bounceback picks didn't get off the start we hoped for, but it was nice to see Rutschman crush a couple of homers in his first, two of six the Orioles managed in a 12-2 win over the Blue Jays. He added a single to go 3 for 5 on Opening Day, and I'm fully expecting a return to All-Star form for Rutschman – and, potentially, MVP form. | | Cedric Mullins, OF, Orioles – Mullins will not be brushed aside so easily. He joined Rutschman in the two-homer club, going 3 for 5 with five RBI among his two long balls. Mullins hasn't been much of a hitter over the past three seasons, but he's probably a better hitter (and Fantasy option) than he's gotten credit for. This was a nice reminder – though it would have been nice if he hadn't been caught stealing on his attempt in this one. The steals are what we're here for, Cedric! | | Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals -- He homered, so that's neat! Arenado went 2 for 4 overall, but the bigger news might be the way he got there, with two of his four balls in play coming on swings that had a bat speed of at least 75 mph -- improving his bat speed was a focus for Arenado this offseason as he tries to get back to being a legitimate power bat, and only 11% of his swings last season were 75 mph or higher. That's an imperfect comparison because he had three other swings that I don't have bat speed data for yet, but it's a small, potentially notable sign I wanted to highlight. | | News and notes | | Vinnie Pasquantino (hamstring) was healthy enough to play DH for the Royals on Opening Day. And he didn't look limited by the injury much at all, as he went 2 for 4 with a homer and three RBI. Maybe he continues to be limited to DH opportunities for a few days, but it looks like there isn't much to be concerned about here. | | Gunnar Henderson will begin a rehab assignment Friday. He's been out since late February due to a right intercostal strain but could be back by the end of next week if all goes well. | | Tanner Bibee was scratched from his OD start due to food poisoning. Ben Lively started in his place. | | Zach Neto – who's still rehabbing from offseason shoulder surgery – isn't ready for game action and has no date for his return. Anything before May would be a pleasant surprise to me. | | Ranger Suarez will throw a 25-pitch bullpen on Saturday. He's on the IL with lower-back stiffness but could be back after a few weeks if all goes well. | | Nick Gonzales left Thursday's game with left ankle soreness after homering. He limped his way around the bases after coming out of the box okay, so I'm not sure exactly what happened there. | | Giancarlo Stanton has resumed swinging a bat but still has a ways to go before he returns from his dual elbow injuries. I'm not really expecting anything from him this season. | | Clarke Schmidt is expected to rejoin the Yankees' rotation in the middle of April. He had his season delayed by back and shoulder issues, though neither has been viewed as a serious issue. | | Danny Jansen is expected to be in the lineup Friday. He's been dealing with a rib injury. | | Grant Holmes pitched an inning of relief today, but he is still expected to start Monday against the Dodgers. I suspect this was just his normal day to throw and they decided to get him a look in a live game. It keeps the bullpen fresher without compromising Holmes' role in the rotation. That's my guess, anyway. | | Trea Turner led off for the Phillies, with Kyle Schwarber hitting fourth. We knew the team was considering moving Schwarber out of the leadoff spot, but dropping to cleanup could cost him 50-60 PA over the course of the season, which isn't ideal if it sticks. | | With Spencer Steer active but limited to DH duties because of his shoulder, that's where he was in the lineup, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand played first, Jeimer Candelario played third, and Gavin Lux was in left field. There's enough room for everyone we're interested in here until Austin Hays is back, which could be pretty soon. | | Endy Rodriguez started at first base for the Pirates and could be an interesting option for deeper leagues until Spencer Horwitz is off the IL. | | Nico Hoerner was in the Cubs lineup as expected after missing much of the spring recovering from flexor tendon surgery in his elbow. He batted sixth in this one, with Matt Shaw dropping to the No. 8 spot – he'll have to force his way up the lineup by hitting well, something he is very much capable of. | | Kerry Carpenter didn't start against a lefty, so it looks like he's still a pure platoon bat. As good as he is, I think he was probably being overdrafted all spring, given his playing time limitations. | | | | | | | | Golazo Network | | Highlights & Analysis | Watch LIVE global soccer coverage on the CBS Sports Golazo Network, available FOR FREE on the CBS Sports App, Pluto TV and streaming on Paramount+.
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