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This morning in the TheoTrade Chatroom I was telling members about something absolutely wild we spotted during yesterday's Veterans Day session. |
Now, with the bond market closed, everyone was expecting a sleepy day. The S&P futures were doing their usual thing - trading on low volume, nothing to write home about. |
But then, folks, here's where it got really interesting. We saw 57 MILLION options contracts trading. |
Let me put that in perspective - this was on Veterans Day, a banking holiday, with the bond market closed. |
That kind of volume is absolutely nuts. It's like walking into an empty restaurant and finding the kitchen pumping out meals like it's Saturday night. |
And today's market action just confirmed everything that unusual Veterans Day flow was telling us. |
When you see that kind of extraordinary options volume on a holiday, it's usually the smart money positioning themselves before a big move. |
📉 The Numbers Don't Lie |
And boy, did that move come. The Dow just closed down 382 points at 43,910, the S&P dropped to 5,983, and even the Nasdaq couldn't escape, though it only dipped 0.09%. |
This isn't random selling, folks - this is exactly what that massive options positioning was warning us about. |
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🎭 The Trump Trade Unravels |
But here's where it gets really interesting – and this ties directly back to what we were seeing in those options flows. |
Remember how I said the smart money was making moves? Look at what happened to the Trump trade today: |
Small caps got absolutely crushed, down 1.8% Tesla, which had been on a rocket ship since Election Day (up 31%), tanked 6% today Trump's media company? Down 9% |
🎲 Smart Money's Chess Move |
The institutional players knew this was coming. That's exactly what yesterday's unusual options activity was telling us. |
When you see that kind of flow on a banking holiday, it's like watching the smart money quietly position themselves before the rest of the market catches on. |
💫 From Record Highs to Reality Check |
And catch on they did. Mark Malek over at Siebert is calling it "exhaustion," but I'll tell you what it really is – it's the market finally catching up to what the options flow was showing us. |
We just hit record highs yesterday – Dow above 44,000, S&P cracking 6,000 for the first time – but the smart money was already positioning for this pullback. |
📋 What's Next on the Radar |
Here's what you need to understand: This isn't just about today's price action. We've got CPI and PPI data coming later this week, and after what we saw today, those numbers are going to be crucial. |
The Fed's already cut rates, but the market's telling us there's more to this story. |
🎓 The Options Flow Lesson |
Think about it – we just saw a perfect example of why you need to watch options flow. |
While everyone else was celebrating new highs yesterday, the smart money was quietly positioning for today's selloff. That's how you stay ahead in this game. |
🔮 Looking Ahead |
Remember what I always say: In this market, it's not about following the crowd. It's about understanding what the big players are doing before everyone else figures it out. |
Today, they showed their hand, and if you were watching the options flow like we were, you saw it coming. |
🎯 What This Means For Your Trading |
Stay sharp out there… |
With inflation data on deck and this market showing signs of indigestion, we might be in for more fireworks. But here's the thing - days like today remind me of something crucial I learned after analyzing billions in options flow at thinkorswim: |
The biggest winners often come from the simplest setups. |
Just the other week, we proved it again with our 400% winner. But here's what most traders don't realize... |
The real edge isn't in complicated strategies or following the crowd. |
It's about spotting specific patterns that signal major moves before they happen - exactly like that unusual options flow we caught yesterday. |
Right now, I'm seeing several promising setups forming. And if you want to get ahead of the next big move, I want to help you do exactly that. |
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To your success, |
Don Kaufman |
