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Options Insider Trader Newsletter
 
Highlights of this week in options: top stories, the most unusual options trades, the best in unusual activity, and more.
 

June 27, 2016 Options Insider Trader Newsletter 

Brexit: We Read all of the Articles so You Don't Have To

So there was a vote...

First, are the results really binding?

For the pro-"remain" side, this may be more wishful thinking than anything—given the scale of the "leave" victory—but, in theory at least, the referendum's results are not binding. That’s because, in the U.K., it is Parliament that is sovereign. Referenda themselves are rare in the country—and Thursday’s was only the third in U.K. history.

How long will it take for the U.K. to actually leave?

No country has voted to leave the EU before, so there's no precedent to judge by. But in theory, it's supposed to take two years. In this time the U.K. will negotiate with the EU's other 27 members on how to extricate itself from the bloc. The U.K. remains an EU member, with all the rights and privileges associated with that, until then. The two-year term is the period spelled out in an EU briefing paper on Article 50. Here's the paper.

What is the future of the U.K.?

There has long been political jostling among the four nations that constitute the United Kingdom, but the so-called Brexit referendum has divided them in ways that mean they may not come back together again. England and Wales voted to leave the union. Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay. Within hours, Scottish and Irish politicians raised the possibility that their nations would leave the United Kingdom so they could remain in the European Union.

Scotland rejected a proposal to quit the United Kingdom in a referendum in 2014, in part over concerns that as an independent country, it would be unable to join the European Union and would suffer economically. On Friday, Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, said her party would "prepare the legislation that would be required to enable a new independence referendum to take place."

WINNERS

Boris Johnson – The former London mayor and grudging "Leave" supporter-turned enthusiastic "Leave" leader chose the winning side. He's now a front-runner to lead the Tory party.

Theresa May – Boris Johnson's populist approach to the Brexit campaign ticked off quite a few Tory elders, so the real money should be on UK Home Secretary Theresa May to succeed outgoing Prime Minister David Cameron. May is a political heavyweight and is generally respected among the Tories, something Boris Johnson is not.

Nigel Farage – the once-embattled UK Independence Party leader gets his moment in the sun. Also gets to keep having a political career. And the fact that he quoted "Independence Day" in his victory speech made a crazy night that much crazier.

Marine Le Pen/Geert Wilders – Charismatic figures with a long history agitating for EU exits, France's Marine Le Pen and the Netherlands' Geert Wilders wasted no time calling for their own referendums. Brexit legitimizes their years of saber-rattling, and moves them from the political fringes into the mainstream, where they can do serious damage to the European project.

Vladimir Putin – Russia's strongman needed this. Low oil prices have leveled the Russian economy, and the International Olympic Committee has banned Russian track athletes from competing in the Olympics. But now he gets to say "at least we're not Europe."

Nicola Sturgeon – The head of the Scottish National Party delivered on her end from Scotland, where 62 percent of Scots voted to "Remain," though turnout wasn't as high as hoped. She now has political leverage by threatening to hold another Scottish referendum. And if Scotland leaves, the British drought at Wimbledon gets retroactively reinstated.

German/US relations – Going to get stronger. By default.

LOSERS

David Cameron – The man called the referendum to keep Euroskeptic Tories from defecting to the UK Independence Party camp in last year's parliamentary election. That turns out to have bought him an extra year in 10 Downing Street.

British pollsters – whiffed on the Scottish referendum. Whiffed on last year's parliamentary elections. Whiffed on the Brexit referendum. They were better off flipping a coin.

Alexis Tsipras – when the Greek Prime Minister held a referendum on whether the Greek people should sign a deal for more austerity, he just ignored the results. The fact that Cameron actually fell on his referendum sword makes Tsipras look silly. Oh, and Grexit is now a real possibility now that the precedent has been sent.

Labour Party Leader Jeremy Corbyn – Pundits have pointed to Labour's particularly poor showing to get out the vote as a key reason why the "Remain" side failed to win. And Jeremy Corbyn just failed in his first real test as Labour leader. Labour has some soul-searching to do, though it feels like we say that after every election.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel – Brexit is now yet another problem for Europe (read: Merkel) to deal with. As if she didn't have enough to worry over.

The British pound sterling – As the pound fell to levels not seen since 1985, maybe the first time ever that the British wish they had adopted the euro.

London's financial sector – Despite the UK's long-fraught relationship with the EU, it was clearly a net benefit for London's financial sector, which could lay claim as the financial center of Europe. Much harder to do that when you've announced to the world you no longer want to be part of "Europe." Look for Frankfurt to pick up the slack.

Greenspan: Worse than October 1987 Crash

Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday the U.K. vote to leave the European Union ushers in a period that's even worse than the darkest days of October 1987.

"This is the worst period, I recall since I've been in public service," Greenspan said on "Squawk on the Street."

"There's nothing like it, including the crisis — remember October 19th, 1987, when the Dow went down by a record amount 23 percent? That I thought was the bottom of all potential problems. This has a corrosive effect that will not go away."

Soros: EU Decline 'Practically Irreversible'

Brexit, combined with Europe's festering migrant crisis, has created a "catastrophic scenario" that has grave consequences for Britain and the world economy, Soros wrote, "making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible."

Noting that Scotland is agitating to leave the U.K., Soros said the county itself "may not survive" the decision to leave Europe.

"But the implications for Europe could be far worse," Soros cautioned. "Tensions among member states have reached a breaking point, not only over refugees, but also as a result of exceptional strains between creditor and debtor countries within the euro zone." 

The Long & Short of It

On the most recent episode of the Long & Short of Futures OptionsErik Norland, Senior Economist at CME Group, and Scott Shellady, Senior Vice President of Derivatives at TJM Investments, joined Mark to discuss what might happen if Brexit was a go. Obviously, this was recorded before the vote, but even without knowing the outcome, these guests really bring a tremendous perspective that cannot be found elsewhere.

What about Futures Options?

If you haven't been tuning in to one of our newest shows, This Week in Futures Options, you are missing out. The most recent episode, recorded on the Friday after the vote, goes through the impact on currency and metals futures.

WWSLJS? (What would Samuel L. Jackson Say)

Are you tired of hearing about Brexit? There was a joke on the most recent episode of Top Gear that was pretty great. When introducing the Stig, Matt Leblanc said, "Some say he thinks Brexit is a laxative. And for tax purposes is classified as a biscuit." 

At the end of the day, though, I think that this sums it up the best:

 

Stats of the Week

  • VIX Cash Range: 16.59 - 25.76
  • S&P Cash Range: 2032.57 -2113.32
  • SPX 30-Day Implied Volatility: 21
  • SPX 10-Day Realized Volatility:  21
  • SPX 30-Day Realized Volatility:  14
  • SPX Risk Premium (30-Day Implied - Realized): 7
  • Market Risk Premium (VIX Cash - SPX 30-day Implied Volatility): 4.76
  • S&P Skew Index
    • 06/20/2015  137.81
    • 06/21/2015  135.92
    • 06/22/2015  136.48
    • 06/23/2015  145.70
    • 06/24/2016  142.92

That's So Unusual

The week in unusual activity

Heavy Put Trading in IILG: Paper sold over 24,000 IILG Dec 14 puts in many blocks via sweeps and autoexecution.

Bull Call Spreads Trade in VGK: Paper sold 10,400 VGK July 48 calls & bought 10,400 July 50 calls.

RAD Bull Call Spreads: Net, the customer paid .66 for 35,258 RAD Jan 2017 8/9 call spreads. 

SYMC Heavy August Put Selling: Paper sold 18,260 SMYC Aug 20 puts, tied to stock. 

Aggressive ATM Call Trading in PAY: Traders swept almost 7500 PAY July 19 calls, almost 2500 July 20 calls, and 1100 July 21 calls.

Big Call Seller in AMJ: Paper sold just over 17,000 AMJ July 31 calls at 1.00 untied to stock.

HP Bear Put Spread: Paper bought 3,000 HP Aug 60 puts & sold 6,000 HP Aug 50 puts paying a net price of .90 per 1-by-2.

GRPO Call Spread into Earnings: Paper bought 5,000 GPRO July 11 calls & sold 10,000 July 12 calls for a net debit of .06.

One-Way Paper in DK: So far today, DK has traded over 13750 calls vs 1 put.

Puts Trade in CYH: 18270 CYH Jul 12 puts went up in 2 blocks on the PHLX. 

Large CS Call Buyers: 5000 CS Sep 15 calls went up in 1 large block on the ISE.

Put Buyers Jump in NEM: 1087 NEM Jul 32.5 puts went up in 1 large block on the PHLX. 

 

Strategy 101: Brought to you by TradeKing

AMZN Iron Condor

In Options Playbook Radio 96: Skip Strike Butterfly with Call Options, which was posted on January 28th, 2016, Brian looks at skip strike butterflies with call options. You can find this information in the hardcover and Kindle versions of The Options Playbook, and it's always available on OptionsPlaybook.com.

He discusses:

  • A review of last week's iron condor
  • What happened to AMZN?
  • Why do this around earnings?
  • What is the marketplace expecting? Aka expected move or over/under
  • How to set up the trade
  • What do you want to happen?
  • What is the risk? Reward?

If you want to hear it for yourself, you can download it now.

 

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