Over 38 GW peak demand growth expected by 2028

At least 38 GW of peak demand growth is expected through 2028, driven by the development of data centers and industrial and manufacturing facilities, according to a new report from Grid Strategies.

The report, The Era of Flat Power Demand is Over, cited forecasts from grid planners, who have doubled the five-year load growth forecast over the past year. The nationwide forecast of electricity demand jumped from 2.6% to 4.7% growth over the next five years, according to FERC filings – and these forecasts are likely an underestimate, Grid Strategies said. Recent updates have tacked on several GW to that forecast, and next year’s will likely show an even steeper growth rate.

Per the report, the main drivers of this increase are investments in new manufacturing, industrial, and data center facilities. Since 2021, commitments for industrial and manufacturing facilities have totaled about $481 billion, and more than 200 manufacturing facilities have been announced this past year. Data center growth is forecasted to exceed $150 billion through 2028.

Additional drivers include: federal legislation encouraging ‘domestic content,’ electrification of transportation and buildings, emerging investments in hydrogen fuel plants, and increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.