HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT

Suspension for suspension? China has long backed a “freeze for freeze” strategy in which North Korea would stop missile and nuclear weapons testing in exchange for an end to American military drills on the peninsula. “Our suspension for suspension process is right and has been realized,” a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said before Trump’s announcement. The next drills were planned for late August. According to U.S. forces in South Korea, they’re still on until an order to cancel has been issued.

This seems familiar. A similar bargain was struck back in 1992 when North Korea allowed the International Atomic Energy Agency to inspect its nuclear facilities while the U.S. paused joint military exercises with South Korea. Then, under the 1994 Agreed Framework brokered by President Bill Clinton, North Korea agreed to cease the operation and construction of its nuclear reactors, an accord that lasted nearly nine years — until it was revealed that North Korea had been cheating and getting their uranium somewhere else.

Easing their pain... Just hours after the historic meeting, China’s foreign ministry suggested the U.N. suspend, or permanently lift, sanctions against Pyongyang. That would allow North Korea’s main trading partner to resume full economic activity with the nation, thereby avoiding the Hermit Kingdom’s potential collapse. Experts say China’s ideal outcome is a “soft landing” that entails a denuclearized Pyongyang pursuing meaningful, long-term reforms.

...and staying secure. Ultimately, Beijing wishes to ensure North Korea remains a functional buffer state separating the pro-American South from China, while also avoiding nuclear war on the peninsula. That’s why Trump’s planned suspension of U.S. military drills pleased Chinese officials, especially since the pledge apparently came without any significant strings attached. Trump’s labeling the U.S. military presence “provocative” — employing the language China has long used — will also be cheered in Beijing.

Did you notice? Kim and Chinese leader Xi Jinping only met for the first time last month, but the two are now on such friendly terms that when Kim arrived in Singapore on Sunday he alighted from a Boeing 747 with the Chinese national flag on it. The Chinese government appears to have loaned the North Korean leader the aircraft, which took a detour through Chinese airspace accompanied by a Chinese fighter jet.

WHAT TO READ

Ending military exercises? Trump’s plan for North Korea was China’s plan first, by Emily Rauhala at The Washington Post
"In coming weeks, China will need to find a way back into the center of the negotiations, or risk being left out of the Trump-Kim bromance. In the short term, it can likely count this as a win."

Can the US, China and North and South Korea find peace on the peninsula? War veterans hope so, by Minnie Chan, Robert Delaney and Lee Jeong-ho at the South China Morning Post
"Perhaps those most keenly watching for signs of a treaty are the men from the two Koreas, the United States and China who were directly involved in the three years of bloodshed."

WHAT TO WATCH