HOW TO THINK ABOUT IT
Terror finds new territory. For decades, Guinea-Bissau, Senegal, Guinea, the Gambia and Mauritania in West Africa have been shielded from radical Salafist mosques by the dominance of the spiritual practice of Sufism and Malakite Islam — which is influenced by Sufism — in the region. This has kept them apart from neighbors such as Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Mali, which have long suffered from terrorism. But now, rising investment from Arab states is threatening that peace, with hundreds of mosques with shady funding springing up and an increasing number of anecdotes indicating a new sectarian tension. While Salafism isn’t inherently violent, the ideology underpins many of the bloodiest jihadi groups in the world, from the Islamic State to Boko Haram.
Bigger fish to fry. In Libya, fighters from the Salafist Madkhalist group have formed an extralegal security force. And after seven years of civil war, many in the country don’t care who’s patrolling the streets as long as somebody is. Now the group may gain internationally recognized legitimacy: A draft decree from the U.N.-backed government of Prime Minister Fayez Serraj, leaked in May, proposes creating a special force that will officially include Madkhalist fighters. But the Madkhalists’ reach goes far beyond that. They are also propping up the Egypt-backed self-proclaimed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who controls Benghazi, and an alternative Libyan government based out of the eastern city of Tobruk. Whichever side prevails in Libya, this ultraconservative group will likely be behind them.
Online recruitment. For some, like Guinea-Bissau’s Ali, an attempt at recruitment into extremism can begin with an innocuous Facebook friend request. While the 20-something man with Bissau dumped his new friend when he started coaxing Ali to advocate for jihad, even those closest to extremists often just see them as passionate about Islamic education and scripture. Some who advocate violence attempt to lure their friends into unorthodox Quranic schools, where educators hope to shape the minds of the next generation.
Host and guest. While many Afghans fled to Pakistan during years of civil strife, more than 835,000 have returned since 2016. The past two years have seen international agencies face a greater strain on their resources, while questions have grown about the effectiveness with which foreign aid money is being spent. Now agencies are focusing on helping local communities organize to help the refugees, relying on the centuries-old local Pashtunwali code that prioritizes helping those in need, even as refugees and communities alike suffer from low employment and a lack of basic services.
