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| Monday, August 5, 2024 |
| It's Packers Day! |
| Before diving into Fantasy analysis for each team, I'll present a brief overview containing their offensive ranks in my base line team projections as well as any notable coaching or offensive line changes. |
| Projected Offensive Plays – (25th) |
| Projected Passing TDs – 23.8 (22nd) |
| Projected Rushing TDs – 19.1 (12th) |
| Notable coaching changes: |
| Hired Jeff Hafley as defensive coordinator |
| Notable offensive line changes |
| Released veteran tackle David BahktiariLet guard Jon Runyan and tackle Yosh Nijman walk in free agencyDrafted guard Jordan Morgan in Round 1 |
| Former Round 7 selection Rasheed Walker stepped up in a huge way for Green Bay with Bahktiari missing almost all of 2023, holding down the fort at left tackle and registering the second-highest pass blocking grade on the team. Walker, right tackle Zach Tom, and left guard Elgton Jenkins recorded the three highest PFF grades on Green Bay's line and are all back for 2024. |
| If he's ready for it, rookie Round 1 selection Jordan Morgan will take over for Runyan at right guard and could provide an immediate upgrade. Runyan received the lowest PFF grade among Green Bay's 2023 starting offensive linemen. Morgan graded out as an elite pass-blocker at Arizona. |
| This is a really solid line, particularly as pass-blockers. It's also a young line, leaving potential room for improvement. The oldest starter is 28, and four of the five are 26 or younger. This Packers offense is full of potential, from its forward-thinking play-caller, to the young offensive line foundation, to the diverse group of blooming early-career pass-catchers, to the $220 million man responsible for keeping this unit on schedule -- 2023 delivered encouraging moments, and 2024 may prove to be the culmination of Green Bay's organizational work towards creating an offensive juggernaut. |
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| LaFleur + Love is an unfair combo for opposing defenses |
| I watched eight games of Green Bay's offense in April and came away so impressed by Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. Christian Watson is a matchup problem who can dunk on just about anybody. Jayden Reed has the juice, he is nearly impossible for a defender to track for more than a few seconds. Romeo Doubs has the trust of Love and this coaching staff and repeatedly impressed me with important sideline catches on third downs and in scoring distance. Dontayvion Wicks can win in a variety of ways and may be the best route-winner on the team. Bo Melton has more juice than Reed, he only needs a sliver of space to fit through and then is gone. Luke Musgrave is cut from a similar cloth as Watson, he presents a matchup problem even if his own lack of refinement and may sometimes prevent him from capitalizing on opportunities. He showed improvement in cleaning up some mistakes from the beginning the season to the end, though, which is super impressive for a rookie who dealt with injury. |
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| The pass-catchers are awesome. LaFleur and Love are the driving force behind this offense's league-best potential, though. Those two strike fear into opposing defenses that have to account for every blade of grass. Between Love's arm talent and willingness to attempt any degree of difficulty in throwing with anticipation, LaFleur can stretch defenses to the breaking point. It all begins with Love's anticipatory throwing. He attempted and completed anticipation throws that only a handful of quarterbacks would even consider. |
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| Love allows LaFleur to fully explore his creativity as a play-caller and maximize his varied group of weapons. These pass-catchers are put in prime position to be their best selves, the only real limiting factor is that LaFleur can only fit so many of them on the field at once. |
| LaFleur's offense uses all of the pass-game efficiency cheat codes. The Packers ranked top-10 in play action rate, pre-snap motion rate, and first-down pass rate. The Packers were 11th in situation-neutral pass rate, meaning the offense chose to attack with the pass when games were close. During the LaFleur era, this has 100% without any doubt been a pass-first offense. |
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| My guess is that Christian Watson is the player to bet on to post a huge TD total in 2024. |
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| Watson has the single highest healthy (only including plays the pass-catcher was on the field for) end zone target share of any player in the NFL since becoming a pro in 2022. He ranks third in healthy red zone target share during that time. The risk is obvious with Watson, but the reward is just as obvious. He could lead the entire NFL in touchdowns. And if his target and air yardage shares are in any way sustainable, Watson could legitimately finish as a top-12 Fantasy WR. |
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| When all were on the field, Watson was the dominant target among Green Bay's receivers in 2023 |
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| Could this change in 2024? Absolutely. Reed and Wicks are in their second season as pros. The last time that we saw Green Bay, it was Romeo Doubs who was dominating. People forget that Doubs accounted for 234 of Green Bay's 466 receiving yards in the playoffs! This is a fluid situation, for sure. Reed and Wicks both flashed brilliance as rookies. Either could ascend to a level beyond what we have seen previously. |
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| The most recent reports regarding the first-team route dispersal do not look good for Reed and are particularly discouraging for Wicks. |
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| Without playing time, it does not matter how good a player is. |
| Below, you'll find the on-field splits for Wicks and Reed as rookies. I was a bit disappointed with the rates registered by Wicks, to be honest. When he was thrown the ball, Wicks usually converted efficiently on his opportunities. He just did not see a whole lot of them, even when only including the plays that he was on the field for. |
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| Wicks earned a cult following in just one season, and it is going to be interesting to see what he has in store for Year 2. Since I led with a more tempered perspective on his Fantasy outlook, here's some gas from Matt Harmon on ReceptionPerception.com to ignite (or fuel for those of you who have been burning all summer) your curiosity about Wicks as a player: |
| "Matt LaFleur had to restrain himself at press conferences from ripping the young receivers because they were all clearly good but weren't always on their marks in terms of timing and route depth. Wicks was an offender at times this season but by the end of the year with more time on task, he was one of the cleanest and crispiest members of the receiver room. |
| Wicks cleared the 69th percentile in success rate vs. man and press coverage. That's where he really shined. His 72.2% success rate vs. man coverage is a critical number and also improved throughout his sample. I talk about this often but wide receivers who clear 70% success rate vs. man coverage early on in their careers are excellent bets. Wicks is among that group. |
| As mentioned above it took some time for Wicks to get a handle of landmarks over the middle of the field. He lost battles he had all the ability to win on digs and posts to start his career, both success rates were below the NFL average in the In-season Rookie Report. As you can see now, both routes are strong points on his tree. |
| Wicks has some truly eye-popping numbers on slants and curls for a rookie receiver and truly shined on deep out-breaking routes. Wicks doesn't have the full straight-line speed to win consistently on nine routes without picture perfect technique but he's absolutely a big-play threat. This especially became crystalized as a his ball skills developed (71.4% contested catch rate). |
| Last but not least, Wicks will sneak up on you in the open field. He gets open on those slants routes, as shown above, and can snap off some defenders as a run after catch option to keep the chains moving. He was "in space" on just 6.9% of his sampled route but went down on first contact on just 41.7% of those plays and broke multiple tackles on 25%. That's some really nice work. |
| Overall, there is just so much to like from Dontayvion Wicks' rookie season Reception Perception profile. He gets open at all three levels, wins from multiple positions and can make big plays in a variety of capacities." |
| Harmon compared Wicks to Nico Collins in the rookie's Reception Perception profile. |
| Opposing defenders couldn't help but use their hands to try to slow Wicks down. He lost the second-most receiving yardage to defensive pass interference while only playing 48% of the offensive snaps! |
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| Wicks seems like a really good player. Harmon highlighting his in-season improvement is definitely intriguing. I have made sure to get some 2024 exposure, especially in Dynasty formats. I worry about his role, but Wicks feels sort of inevitable. What about Jayden Reed? What might his role look like in Year 2? |
| Displayed below are Reed's receiving volume shares when on the field in 2023. |
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| I watched all of Reed's routes and all of Jaxon Smith-Njigba's routes on the same day, and I couldn't help but feel like Reed was the better player. JSN is two years younger and less experienced, so he may ultimately offer a higher ceiling than Reed. But I was so impressed with Reed. I was impressed by Smith-Njigba! He looked uncoverable off the line and was so smooth in and out of cuts in his routes. And yet I often felt underwhelmed by his burst because I had just watched Reed. |
| Reed is electric. He's a weapon with the ball in his hands, he's a lightning bolt jolting into open zones, and his shiftiness creates a tangible sense of anxiety for any unfortunate defender tasked with tracking him in man/press coverage. His potential to manipulate space leaves defenders guessing as to what the best defensive position might be. Reed feels like the type of receiver who could turn into an always-open target who defenses have to shift attention to. With increased refinement and improved timing with Love and LaFleur's route and target dispersal, Reed's ability could translate to massive target shares. Antonio Brown is the name that you clearly cannot attach to any player who we've only seen limited action of, so I won't do that... I'll just say that the top of Reed's perceivable range of outcomes feels similar to Diontae Johnson (the single "most-open" player in the NFL) but with much more burst. |
| As excited about Reed as I am, he's not a player who I am investing in much for 2024. The potential is there for him to turn into a target hog right away, but it will likely require an injury to a teammate. He only ever saw the field in three-receiver formations as the slot man in 2023, and that appears to be the most likely role for him in Year 2. Reed was one of my favorite draft values last year, so I have him on a ton of Dynasty rosters. I can't get behind his 2024 draft cost, though. I'd much rather draft Watson later. |
| Is MarShawn Lloyd going to matter as a rookie, or is Josh Jacobs set for a MONSTER Fantasy season? |
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| I really hope that we get to see Lloyd in 2024. He could be so fun in this offense. The offensive line, while better at pass-pro, is solid at creating rushing lanes. The passing game is so good that opposing defenses have to play light up front. LaFleur has featured a running back in the passing game in the past. This is such a juicy potential set-up for the talented rookie playmaker. |
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| Unfortunately, a hip injury caused Lloyd to miss some key moments of the early portion of Packers training camp. Meanwhile, AJ Dillon apparently has transformed himself and is ready to be better than ever before (previously, he's been the worst running back in the NFL, so who knows where he currently stands). |
| Lloyd presents question marks of his own, too. He fumbled at one of the highest rates of any recent RB prospect at the collegiate level. Is he the man who LaFleur is going to feel confident trusting to protect the highest-paid QB? |
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| Josh Jacobs wasn't good as a pass-protector in 2023, either. But he has been at various points in his career. He ranked 42nd among 67 qualified backs in PFF pass blocking grade in 2023, and that was the worst mark of his career. My guess is that he plays all three downs for this Packers offense. |
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| Dillon will likely mix in to start, and it's possible that Lloyd will as well. But Lloyd may not take on a significant role until after Green Bay's Week 10 bye. As much as I love Lloyd's potential, I don't view him as a Jaylen Warren or Tyjae Spears type of late-round RB pick who will have a role in the offense and offers a contingent upside if the starting RB is forced to miss time. I've moved Lloyd behind Blake Corum as well. It seems more likely, as things currently stand, that Corum plays a meaningful role in his offense . Lloyd is my second-most rostered Dynasty RB behind only Tyrone Tracy Jr., and I do scoop him in season-long formats as well. Just be ready to be patient if you are going to join me in doing so. |
| If Lloyd is not a factor early on, it clears a runway for Jacobs to potentially push his snap rates into the +70% range. That type of usage would give Jacobs top-five Fantasy RB potential in this high-powered offense. From a median projections standpoint, only seven running backs are better on-paper bets than Jacobs this season. He's the RB10 in my rankings. Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane are the two who do not project for a higher median point total that I moved ahead of Jacobs anyway. For obvious reasons, the rookie season for those two was a blur. They could take over the league in Year 2, I have no idea what they might be capable of. Jacobs looked worse than we've ever seen him in 2023. And his offense immediately improved upon his removal. He's still only 26 years old and will likely be more motivated than he has been in quite some time. The opportunity in front of him is the best of his professional life. Jacobs may bounce back from an efficiency standpoint. And we have seen this guy at the very top of the NFL in terms of rushing efficiency. |
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| Josh Jacobs is a former Round 1 selection. He could be good again! If he's good, and the offense is good, I feel pretty confident betting that you are gonna feel really good if you draft him. He's not expensive. On CBS, 10 running backs are drafted ahead of Jacobs. On Underdog Fantasy, Jacobs isn't even selected in the top-50. He's the RB12 and leaves the board as the 52nd player on average. |
| I'm making sure to leave every draft that I do with at least one Packers player. In order, this is who I have the most exposure to in Dynasty: Lloyd, Watson, Reed, Musgrave, Wicks, Jacobs, Doubs. Here's the same thing, but for season-long drafts: Watson, Lloyd, Musgrave, Jacobs, Doubs, Wicks, Reed. Go get you some Packers. This is exactly the type of offense that you want to bet on. |
| I'll be back in your inbox every weekday with a new team preview until August 8! Tuesday, we will be covering the Chicago Bears. If you have any feedback on the team-by-team previews or any questions about the upcoming teams, feel free to send them my way. |
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