| |
|
| Friday, January 12, 2024 |
| Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| The NFL postseason is finally here! Over the next three days, we're going to see a total of six playoff games and I'm excited for every single one of them, even Chiefs at Dolphins, which is apparently being played on the ice planet of Hoth. |
| That kickoff temperature for that game could make it one of the coldest in NFL history and we'll be taking a look today at how this weekend's weather could have an impact on two different games. |
| With the playoffs starting, that means we'll be bringing you plenty of picks today, plus we'll also be making some bold predictions for the wild-card round and we'll also try to identify some playoff sleeper teams. If you need a reminder of when each game will be kicking off this weekend, you can go here to check out the entire postseason schedule. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Actually, you don't even have to tell all of your friends, just tell one friend and I'll be happy. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Best bets for Super Wild Card Weekend |
| |
| If you're a regular listener of the "Pick Six NFL" podcast or a regular reader of this newsletter, then you know what we do on Fridays: We make picks. And then, just when you think there's no way we'll make any more picks, we make more picks. |
| For today's show, host Katie Mox was joined by Will Brinson along with R.J. White and Alex "PropStarz" Selelnick -- two of our gambling gurus over at SportsLine -- and the four of them offered some of their best bets for SUPER WILD CARD WEEKEND. |
| The crew spent an entire hour handing out picks, and we're going to go over a few of their best bets here. |
| Will Brinson (1-2 in picks we shared here last week, 25-28-1 on the season) |
| Cowboys OVER 29.5 team points vs. PackersRams (+3.5) to cover against LionsJoe Flacco UNDER 37.5 passing attempts |
| R.J. White (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 22-29-3 on the season) |
| Travis Kelce OVER 59.5 receiving yardsSteelers at Bills UNDER 36.5 pointsBuccaneers (+3) to cover against Eagles |
| Katie Mox (2-1 in picks we shared here last week, 25-22 on the season) |
| Texans (+2.5) to cover against BrownsMatthew Stafford OVER 272.5 passing yardsNajee Harris OVER 60.5 rushing yards |
| As for PropStarz, he handed out a few of his favorite props for the weekend, because when your nickname is PropStarz, that's what the people expect. |
| Dolphins at Chiefs: Tua Tagovailoa UNDER 239.5 passing yardsSteelers at Bills: Josh Allen OVER 8.5 rushing attemptsPackers at Cowboys: Jake Ferguson OVER 41.5 receiving yards |
| PropStarz went 2-0 with his picks last week and is now 29-21 on the season (PropStarz started the season 2-7, so he's 27-14 since Week 4). |
| To hear what the rest of the best bets are for Super Wild Card Weekend -- and there are quite a few -- be sure to click here so you can listen to the entire episode of the podcast. You can also watch the episode on YouTube here. |
| |
| 2. Patriots hire Jerod Mayo: Four things to know |
| Less than 24 hours after parting ways with Bill Belichick, the New England Patriots already have a new coach. CBS Sports Lead NFL Insider Jonathan Jones has reported that the Patriots will be promoting Jerod Mayo to take over for Belichick. |
| Here's everything you need to know about Mayo: |
| Why the Patriots were able to hire him so quickly. For the most part, a coaching search in the NFL can take multiple weeks and that's mostly because teams are required to interview multiple candidates to comply with the Rooney Rule. However, the Patriots didn't have to interview anyone because it was written into Mayo's contract that he would be Belichick's successor. Under NFL rules, if there's a contractual succession plan in place that has been approved by the league office, then the hiring team is allowed to promote the coach on staff. This doesn't happen often, but we have seen it a few times over the past few years, most recently with Todd Bowles taking over for Bruce Arians in Tampa Bay and Eric DeCosta taking over for Ozzie Newsome as Ravens general manager in 2019. Mayo is a lifelong Patriot. Mayo's NFL career started in 2008 when the Patriots made him the 10th overall pick in the NFL Draft. After winning Defensive Rookie of the Year, Mayo ended up spending his entire eight-year career in New England, which included one Super Bowl win (2014). In 2019, Mayo joined the Patriots' coaching staff as the inside linebackers coach and he just finished his fifth season on the job before being promoted to head coach today. Mayo is the fourth coach under Robert Kraft. There have only been four head coaches in New England since Kraft bought the team in 1994 and the Patriots owner has a pretty solid track record so far with Bill Parcells, Pete Carroll and Belichick all holding the top job before Mayo was hired. Mayo is now the youngest coach in the NFL. For the first time in seven years, Sean McVay will NOT be the youngest coach in the NFL. The 37-year-old Mayo will be turning 38 on Feb. 23, which makes him almost exactly one month younger than McVay, who will turn 38 on Jan. 24. The third-youngest coach is Kevin O'Connell, which I'm only mentioning because both Mayo and O'Connell were drafted by the Patriots in 2008. If Mike Vrabel lands a job for 2024, that means there will be three former Patriots players coaching in the NFL. |
| For our full story on Mayo's hiring, be sure to click here. |
| If you want to stay up to date on all seven coaching searches going on around the league, including the latest interviews and the hottest candidates, be sure to check out our coaching tracker here. |
| In other hiring news, the Commanders filled their general manager spot by hiring 49ers assistant GM Adam Peters, Jonathan Jones has reported. According to Jones, Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is the name you should now keep an eye on for the head -oaching spot in Washington. |
| 3. AFC and NFC sleeper teams playing this weekend with best chance to make a deep playoff run |
| |
| The Ravens and the 49ers are currently the two favorites to make it to the Super Bowl this year. If you want to be boring, those would be the two teams that you would pick to make it to the big game. However, we don't do boring here, so we asked Chris Trapasso to come up with one sleeper team in both the NFC and AFC that could make the Super Bowl. |
| AFC sleeper team: Browns. "Joe Flacco fits like a glove in Kevin Stefanski's play-action, bootleg-centric offense. He's slinging it all over the field -- and clearly still has a monster arm -- while the defense is as stingy as they come. Do not mistake the incredibly resilient Browns with a suddenly revitalized 38-year-old former rival quarterback as a Hallmark-y, feel-good story and nothing more. While going on the road in the playoffs is never a cinch, Cleveland smoked the Texans, in Houston, 36-22 on Christmas Eve. How the Browns are constructed makes them a club no higher seed wants to play in the AFC playoffs." NFC sleeper team: Rams. "The Rams, too, are a squad with some superstars at vital positions. And they boast a genius offensive-minded head coach at the controls. Sure, the Matthew Stafford reunion in Detroit will be something, and the Lions are explosive with a budding superstar of their own on defense in Aidan Hutchinson ... but Los Angeles can score with anyone, and has been there, done that in the past. That combination makes the Rams my sleeper pick in the NFC." |
| If you want to check out Trapasso's full explanation for why he picked these two teams, be sure to check out his story here. |
| |
| 4. Super Wild Card Weekend picks from your five favorite writers |
| I hope you're ready for some more picks, because we have even more of them coming at you right now. This batch will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco and Will Brinson, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself. |
| After going 3-2 last week, that allowed us to finish out the regular season with a 48-38-3 record against the spread with our picks that have been featured in the newsletter. What this means is that you should listen to us roughly 55.6% of the time. You'll have to figure out the 44.4% where you shouldn't be listening. |
| Anyway, you know the drill here: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. |
Pete Prisco: Bills (-10) 27-13 over Steelers. From Prisco: "The Bills are rolling into the playoffs as winners of five straight. They have the look of a dangerous playoff team. The Steelers won two straight to get into the postseason, but they will be without T.J. Watt here against Josh Allen." For the rest of Prisco's wild-card picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan: Texans (+2.5) 27-23 over Browns. From Sullivan: "While the Browns have a reputation for having one of the top defenses in the league, they've been an entirely different unit on the road compared to who they are at home. Away from Cleveland, the defense is allowing 29.6 points per game (tied for most in the NFL) and 331.1 total yards per game. The Browns are also 3-5 straight-up and 2-5-1 ATS (1-2 ATS as a favorite) on the road this season." For the rest of Sullivan's Super Wild Card Weekend picks, be sure to click here. Will Brinson: Chiefs (-4.5) to cover against Dolphins. From Brinson: "Miami is 0-10 in its last 10 games when the temperature is below 40 degrees, the longest current losing streak of any team in such games. If you take the five coldest games of Tua Tagovailoa's career -- all of which range between 30 degrees and 46 degrees -- he is 0-5 in those games, with five touchdowns, seven interceptions and completes just over 56% of his passes. The kickoff temperature is going to be around 3 degrees with a wind chill of -15. I'll take the Chiefs." For the rest of Brinson's playoff best bets, be sure to click here.
Jordan Dajani: Rams (+3) 41-35 over Lions. From Dajani: "The Lions have a top-five offense in total yards and points, but the Rams offense is pretty good too. When they have their "big four" on the field, with Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, they average 6.8 yards per play. L.A. is 6-2 with those four players on the field, and they average 28.5 points per game and 398.9 total yards per game. That foursome could find big success against the Lions defense." Dajani actually predicted ALL 13 playoff games -- from the wild-card round to the Super Bowl -- and you can check out each one of his picks here.John Breech: Cowboys 31-24 over Packers (+7). From me: "Five years ago, the Packers fired Mike McCarthy in part because his offense had gotten stale, which is kind of ironic, because McCarthy is now calling plays for the highest-scoring offense in the NFL. There is no team that McCarthy wants to beat more than the Packers and he will be pulling out all the stops to make sure that happens." For the rest of my weekend playoff picks, be sure to click here. |
| For more playoff picks, you can check out our CBS Sports picks page here. |
| 5. Bold predictions for Super Wild Card Weekend |
| |
| After 18 straight weeks of regular-season bold predictions, we're getting even bolder for the playoffs. Garrett Podell has five bold predictions for Super Wild Card Weekend, and we're going to share three of them below. Last week, Garrett boldly predicted that Mason Rudolph would lead the Steelers to a win over the Ravens, and that's exactly what happened. |
| Let's see what Garrett has in store for us this week. |
| Bold predictions for Super Wild Card Weekend: |
| 1. Buccaneers put Eagles out of their misery by upsetting Philadelphia. "Baker Mayfield powers the Buccaneers to their first playoff win since the wild-card round from the 2021 season when Tom Brady shredded a young Eagles team filled with inexperience. Monday night will mark Mayfield's second playoff run of his career, but he will stay hot and throw multiple touchdown passes for the fifth time in the last six games." |
| 2. Stefon Diggs ends 11-game drought, goes off more than 100 yards. "Diggs hasn't broken 100 yards receiving in 11 consecutive games, which is tied for the longest such stretch of his career. ... Even if wind is a factor this time, Diggs snaps his drought anyways. NFL sacks leader (19.0) T.J. Watt won't be playing thanks to an MCL injury. He accounts for 40.4% of Pittsburgh's sacks and 33.6% of the Steelers' quarterback hits. Without Watt, Allen will have all day to throw, allowing him to help Diggs snap his slump, no matter what the weather conditions happen to be." |
| 3. Jard Goff outduels Matthew Stafford as Lions beat Rams. "Matthew Stafford returns to Detroit for the first time as a visitor with more wins (41), passing yards (23,051) and passing touchdowns (156) at Ford Field than all other Lions quarterback combined. He's flying high entering the reunion with his home of 12 seasons with an NFL-best 15 passing touchdowns from Weeks 12-17 (he didn't suit up in Week 18). However, Jared Goff, his Lions successor and Rams predecessor, will outperform him for sweet, sweet revenge." |
| Garrett actually has five bold predictions for the wild-card round, and if you want to see each prediction along with his explanation for each prediction, you can check those out here. |
| |
| 6. Extra points: Super Wild Card Weekend nuggets and notes |
| Here's a small roundup of playoff-related stories that you may have missed this week, plus a look at the weather in Kansas City and Buffalo. |
Historic cold set to hit Kansas City for Dolphins-Chiefs. As of Friday morning, the projected kickoff temperature is expected to be 0 degrees on Saturday. If that happens, it would be the coldest game in history for both franchises. If the temperature drops to minus-2 for kickoff, then the game would go down as the third-coldest ever in NFL history. You can see our full story here on the weather for the Dolphins-Chiefs game. Steelers-Bills also dealing with wild weather. It won't be as cold in Buffalo as it is in Kansas City, but the weather will still likely be an issue. Wind could be a problem in Buffalo, where 25 mph winds are expected with gusts that could reach 50 mph. There's also a very real possibility of snow showers. For our full weather report on this game, be sure to head here.
Bills won't have Gabe Davis. The Bills have ruled out Gabe Davis (PCL sprain) and safety Taylor Rapp (calf) for Saturday's game against the Steelers. Davis finished second on the team in receiving yards this season, so his loss is a huge one for the Bills' offense. Ranking wild-card QB matchups. We went through and ranked all six games based on the QB matchup and spoiler alert: Steelers at Bills came in last. If you want to see where everyone else ranked, you can see our full rankings here. Ranking most important non-quarterbacks. We all know that quarterbacks are important, but who's the most important non-QB in the playoffs? Glad you asked. Cody Benjamin attempted to answer that question and you can check out his rankings here (Spoiler alert: Aaron Donald made the list, but he's not No. 1). One reason each team can win the Super Bowl. We had our most optimistic writer, Bryan DeArdo, come up with one reason why each team definitely has a chance to win the Super Bowl. You might not think it's possible for the Steelers to win, but DeArdo points out that they have a pretty solid combo for January: a strong rushing attack and a great defense. To see his reason for each team, be sure to check out his story here. |
| |
| | | | | Steelers at Bills | | San Diego State at New Mexico | Tune in for NFL Super Wild Card weekend on CBS with Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson, Jay Feely and Gene Steratore LIVE from Orchard Park as the Bills host the Steelers in a high-stakes matchup
Watch
| | Watch College Basketball on CBS this weekend as the #19 Aztecs travel to “the Pit” to take on the Lobos, Saturday at 2 PM ET
Watch
|
|
| |
| |
