What to know: By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) As the crypto rally gathers pace ether has widened its lead over bitcoin in terms of volatility expectations, signaling relatively greater action not just in the second-largest cryptocurrency, but in the broader digital asset market as a whole. |
Deribit's ether implied volatility index (ETH DVOL), which represents the 30-day expected price turbulence, has shot up 11% to an annualized 7% this week while the bitcoin equivalent, BTC DVOL, held steady near multimonth lows around 45%, according to data source TradingView. The divergence has widened the spread between the two to 27%, the most in at least two years. Clearly, traders are anticipating greater volatility in ETH and the broader altcoin market. According to some observers, ETH has turned deflationary because the Pectra upgrade implemented this week has boosted on-chain activity and led to over 38,000 ETH burned or destroyed in the past 24 hours. Some market participants are buying higher strike ETH calls on Deribit in anticipation of continued price gains. We could be on the verge of an altcoin season, as the BTC dominance rate looks to end its five-month-long uptrend. (Check out Technical Analysis). In key news, American fast-food chain Steak ‘n Shake said Thursday it will begin accepting BTC as a payment mode at all U.S. locations starting May 16, allowing its 100 million customers to shop with the world's biggest digital-asset token. T-Rex, the Web3 consumer entertainment platform, which is backed by Portal Ventures, North Island Ventures, Framework Ventures and Arbitrum Gaming Ventures, raised $17 million in pre-seed financing. Finally, just in case you missed it, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase agreed to buy the world's largest crypto options exchange, Deribit, for $2.9 billion in cash and shares in the crypto industry's largest ever M&A deal. Deribit controls over 80% of the activity, meaning Coinbase will be able to offer a full suite of spot and derivative products, boosting liquidity on the platform. Stay alert! |
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*The Funds intend to pay out dividends from net investment income, if any, and distribute any net unrealized capital gains to their shareholders at least annually.
Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Funds, please call (866)-775-0313 or visit our websites at etfs.grayscale.com/btcc and etfs.grayscale.com/bpi. Read the prospectuses or summary prospectuses carefully before investing.
Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. There is no guarantee the investment strategy will be successful. The Fund is considered to be non-diversified. The Fund is actively managed and its performance reflects the investment decisions that the Adviser makes for the Fund. Grayscale Bitcoin Covered Call ETF (“BTCC”) and Grayscale premium Income ETF ("BPI") (collectively, the "Funds") will not invest in digital assets directly. The Funds also will not invest in initial coin offerings. The Funds will, however, have indirect exposure to digital assets by virtue of its investments in derivatives on exchange-traded vehicles that hold digital assets as investments. Because the Funds will not invest directly in any digital assets, they may not track price movements of any digital assets.
BTCC and BPI are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC and Grayscale Advisors, LLC is the adviser. Foreside is not related to GSA or its affiliates. |
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Crypto: Macro May 9, 8 a.m.: The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases April consumer price inflation data. May 9, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April employment data. May 9-12: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will hold trade talks with U.S. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during his visit to Switzerland.
Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data) May 9: TeraWulf (WULF), pre-market May 12: Exodus Movement (EXOD), post-market May 13: Semler Scientific (SMLR), post-market May 14: Bitfarms (BITF), pre-market May 14: IREN (IREN), post-market May 15: Bit Digital (BTBT), post-market May 15: Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR), pre-market May 15: KULR Technology Group (KULR), post-market
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- A Sei Network developer proposed ending support for Cosmos to simplify the blockchain and align more closely with Ethereum to reduce complexity and infrastructure overhead and boost Sei's adoption.
- May 15, 10 a.m.: Moca Network to host a Discord townhall session discussing network updates.
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- May 9: Movement (MOVE) to unlock 2.04% of its circulating supply worth $8.08 million.
- May 11: Solayer (LAYER) to unlock 12.87% of its circulating supply worth $35.66 million.
- May 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.82% of its circulating supply worth $57.45 million.
- May 13: WhiteBIT Coin (WBT) to unlock 27.41% of its circulating supply worth $1.14 billion.
- May 15: Starknet (STRK) to unlock 4.09% of its circulating supply worth $17.7 million.
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- May 9: OKX lists Jito with JITOSOL/USDT pair.
- May 9: BitMart lists Minutes Network Token with MNTX/USDT pair.
- May 16: Galxe (GAL), Litentry (LIT), Mines of Dalarnia (DAR), Orion Protocol (ORN), and PARSIQ (PRQ) to be delisted from Coinbase.
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By Shaurya Malwa 📍PEPE is up more than 40% in the past 24 hours, outperforming most major tokens as traders continue to treat it as a high-beta ETH play — a speculative vehicle to gain outsized exposure to ether (ETH). 📍The memecoin has become a proxy for ETH upside since early 2024 because the PEPE price tends to react strongly to ETH narratives such as the recent Pectra upgrade, which preceded a 20% jump in the second-largest cryptocurrency. 📍Trading volumes for PEPE surged past $3.5 billion in the past 24 hours, several times more than Wednesday's $500 million. 📍This marks one of the token's strongest weeks in the past year and signals a return of risk appetite in the memecoin space. 📍Derivatives data shows rising open interest and funding rates for PEPE futures, suggesting a wave of leverage-fueled bets are targeting the frog-themed token in the hope of higher volatility ahead. 📍Meanwhile, Solana-based hippo token MOODENG rallied over 150%. The project, known for its absurdist branding based on a viral Thai hippo, is popular among Asian trader circles. 📍Cat-themed MOG also posted double-digit gains, but PEPE remains the most liquid and visible memecoin in the current ETH-beta trade. |
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- BTC and ETH annualized futures basis on the CME has surprisingly held steady near 7% despite the price rallies. That could be a sign of market maturity as cash and carry arbitrage narrows price discrepancies.
- On off-shore exchanges, perpetual funding rates for BTC, ETH and most major tokens are hovering between annualized 10% and 14%, reflecting a bullish bias.
- In the options market, BTC and ETH risk reversals show call bias. Block flows featured a short position in the $95K put expiring on May 15 and calendar spreads in May and June expiries.
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- BTC is up 1.19% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $102,725.44 (24hrs: +2.92%)
- ETH is up 9.9% at $2,328.10 (24hrs: +20.03%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 4.59% at 3,116.42 (24hrs: +8.86%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 15 bps at 3.04%
- BTC funding rate is at 0.01% (10.95% annualized) on Binance
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- DXY is down 0.26% at 100.38
- Gold is up 0.67% at $3,325.99/oz
- Silver is up 0.45% at $32.60/oz
- Nikkei 225 closed +1.56% at 37,503.33
- Hang Seng closed +0.4% at 22,867.74
- FTSE is up 0.48% at 8,572.92
- Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.38% at 5,308.85
- DJIA closed on Thursday +0.62% at 41,368.45
- S&P 500 closed +0.58% at 5,663.94
- Nasdaq closed +1.07% at 17,928.14
- S&P/TSX Composite Index closed +0.37% at 25,254.06
- S&P 40 Latin America closed +1.8% at 2,557.27
- U.S. 10-year Treasury rate is unchanged at 4.38%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.11% at 5,690.75
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.23% at 20,193.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 41,445.00
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- BTC Dominance: 63.94 (-0.80%)
- Ethereum to bitcoin ratio: 0.2282 (6.79%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 925 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $55.50
- Total Fees: 6.54 BTC / $655,033
- CME Futures Open Interest: 149,545 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 31.3 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 8.86%
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- BTC's dominance rate, or the largest cryptocurrency's share of the crypto market, might soon drop below a trendline, characterizing BTC outperformance relative to the broader market since December.
- The breakdown will likely mean the onset of the altcoin season.
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- Strategy (MSTR): closed on Thursday at $414.38 (+5.58%), up 1.75% at $421.65 in pre-market
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $206.5 (+5.06%), down 1.33% at $203.76
- Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at $27.67 (+4.45%)
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $14.29 (+7.2%), down 1.33% at $14.10
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.44 (+7.65%), up 1.42% at $8.56
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $9.45 (+6.18%), up 2.54% at $9.69
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.68 (+8.09%), down 1.73% at $8.53
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $15.53 (+6.44%)
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $35.24 (+6.63%) , up 1.87% at $35.90
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $42.49 (+6.2%), unchanged in pre-market
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- Daily net flows: $117.4 million
- Cumulative net flows: $40.81 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.17 million
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- Daily net flows: -$16.1 million
- Cumulative net flows: $2.47 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 3.45 million
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The MOVE index, which measures the expected volatility in the U.S. Treasury market that underpins global finance, has nearly reversed the late March to early April spike. The decline supports increased risk-taking in financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.
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⚠️ Danger Grows as India and Pakistan Appear to Escalate Military Clash (The New York Times): India said it intercepted drone and missile attacks on its military sites and struck Pakistani air defenses near Lahore. Pakistan said it downed over two dozen Indian drones. 🚀 Bitcoin Sees Surge in Institutional Confidence, Deribit-Listed BTC Options Market Reveals (CoinDesk): Strong demand for bitcoin call options at $110,000 and calendar spreads targeting $140,000 suggests traders expect a rally to potentially extend into September. 🇯🇵 Metaplanet Plans a Further $21M Bond Sale to Buy More BTC (CoinDesk): The Tokyo-based company's directors agreed to issue the zero-coupon bonds to EVO FUND, marking its third such deal in a week. 🏥 Florida Pharma Firm Will Use XRP for Real-Time Payments in $50M Financing Deal (CoinDesk): Wellgistics Health said XRP’s 3- to 5-second settlement time will enable near real-time payments across pharmacies, suppliers and manufacturers, with blockchain records supporting compliance, rebate tracking and auditability. 🇵🇱 Poland to Open Way for French Nuclear Shield Talks With a Treaty (Bloomberg): Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and French President Emmanuel Macron will sign a treaty Friday pledging mutual military aid in the event of armed conflict. 🇨🇳 China’s Exports to U.S. Plunge, in Sign of Bite From Trump Tariffs (The Wall Street Journal): China’s exports to the U.S. sank 21% year over year in April, while shipments to ASEAN, Latin America, Africa and the EU surged by more than 10%. |
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CoinDesk Disclosure: The information contained in this newsletter, and any information linked through the items contained herein, is not intended to provide sufficient information to form the basis for an investment decision. You should seek additional information regarding the merits and risks of investing in any cryptocurrency or digital assets. |
L1.co Disclosure: This material is for informational purposes only, and the content contained herein should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation, offer, or recommendation to sell or buy any asset, strategy, or product. Investing in digital assets involves a high degree of risk, including the loss of principal. |
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