Friday Deep Dive featuring Douglas Brown’s ‘Shelf Life’ column
If you are having trouble reading this email, read the online version Plant-based meats and alt sweeteners shift gears, find balance at Expo West Once-dominant food trends—alternative sweeteners and plant-based meats—found new footing at Natural Products Expo West 2025, embracing balance over extremes. | | Douglas Brown, Senior Retail Reporter |
| I traveled to Expo West in search of trends. By the time I hopped on a flight from California heading back to Colorado, I'd spotted a bunch—from the continued rocket-like rise of Korean-inspired foods to the proliferation of new-wave wellness sodas.
But one trend struck me with particular force: the eclipse of the alternates.
I anticipated finding loads of sugar-free products flooded with natural sweeteners such as stevia and allulose—they have become Expo fixtures. I also expected to encounter vast corrals of plant-based meats. In recent years, these products have flourished; by the conclusion of 2022's show, one reporter wondered if we had finally reached "peak nugget."
But neither the sugar-shunning products nor the alt-meats seemed to occupy as much booth space this year. Both categories showed up. On the alt-meat side, for example, Prime Roots handed out superb banh mi sandwiches based on their mycelium cold cuts, and big brand Impossible Foods built a grand booth, where servers handed out parades of alt-meat samples.
Compared to recent Expos, however, neither alt category commanded as much attention as I had envisioned. So, what happened?
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Plant-based meats and alt-sweeteners, continued... |
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| First, let's rewind. Alternative sweeteners have been riding a sugar-free high for the past few years. Sales of ingredients including stevia, monk fruit and allulose reached $4.9 billion in 2023, and are expected to reach $6.4 billion by 2031—a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.5%. Globally, the trend is even stronger, with a CAGR of 5.79% from 2023 to 2029, according to Persistence Market Research. Both of these numbers represent decent growth.
Meanwhile, despite the industry doom-and-gloom loop, sales of plant-based meats are expected to surge. Analysts predict the market will expand from $9.57 billion in 2024 to $21.81 billion in 2030, with a CAGR of 14.7%—powerful growth.
Yet, voyaging down the aisles of Expo West in 2025 presented a more complicated picture. Neither boom nor bust. But maybe balance. Plant-based innovations do continue emerging—I write about fresh investments in the sector seemingly every week for Nutrition Capital Network. Before walking the show, I wondered if I would see evidence of what seemed like mounting momentum, after a few years of hitting the brakes.
Nugget nation? Not at this Expo. But adaptation? Absolutely. Back during those days of "peak nugget," many of the plant-based meat offerings were conceptually pretty simple—it doesn't get much more basic than a nugget or a burger. But at this show, instead of breaded variations of plant protein destined for swipes through mustard or barbecue sauce, I savored meatless bulgogi, barbacoa and five-spice-powder-punched dumpling fillings. Many of the plant-based offerings contained just a few ingredients, which aligns with something that research has backed up repeatedly—consumers like "clean" and simple ingredient panels.
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