💰 Poker Strategy With Jonathan Little: Tough Spot At Final Table

On the first hand of the final table in a $10,000 buy-in event with blinds at 3,000-6,000 with a 6,000 big blind ante, I raised to 17,000 out of my 640,000 stack from the cutoff seat with 7 6 and a loose, aggressive player in the big blind three-bet to 57,000. I called.

Both calling and folding are fine options, and if I think my opponent will fold to a four-bet too often, four-betting becomes acceptable as well. Really, all options are reasonable.

In general, I am happy to see flops in position with a wide range of premium hands and hands with implied odds. Playing in this manner will make you difficult to play against because your opponent will have a difficult time accurately determining your range.

The flop came 9 5 3, giving me a double-gutshot straight draw. My opponent bet 48,000 into the 123,000 pot and I called.

This is an excellent spot to call with most of my range. I want to call with three-of-a-kind because my opponent is drawing thin. I want to call with my marginal made hands like 10-10 and 10-9 because if I raise and get additional action, I could easily be in bad shape. I want to call with my draws because if I raise and my opponent reraises, I have to fold, and if he calls, I have no way of knowing if I should bluff it off if I fail to improve.

The turn was the Q. My opponent bet 104,000 into the 219,000 pot and I called.

At this point, it is clear that my opponent is setting up the option for a sizable river bet. Because of this, I want to call with my draws to realize large implied odds on the river.

I could push all-in on the turn, but that doesn’t make sense with my premium made hands because, as on the flop, my opponent is drawing thin. I am getting roughly the correct pot odds to call with my draws, making calling the best play.

If I thought I could make my opponent fold a large amount of the time, perhaps because he is three-betting with too many hands before the flop, raising becomes vastly superior to calling.

The river was the 7, giving me a marginal pair. My opponent pushed all-in for 431,000 into the 427,000 pot.

This is a tough spot! I lose to all premium made hands and I beat most bluffs (missed draws). I have to determine how often my opponent is bluffing and see if I am getting the correct pot odds to call.

My opponent is pushing for the size of the pot, so I need to win 33% of the time to justify calling (431,000/(431,000 + 431,000 + 427,000) = 33%).

My opponent will likely value bet all straights, sets, two pairs, overpairs, A-Q, K-Q, and perhaps Q-J. That is 65 combinations of hands. Of course, he may or may not play the top pairs this way.

The tricky part is figuring out how often my opponent is bluffing because his range varies wildly depending on his preflop strategy. If he is three-betting a linear range of mostly high card hands, he should have relatively few bluffs (unless he is using hands like A-J and A-10 as bluffs). If he is three-betting a polarized range of premium hands and junky drawing hands (which I thought was the case), he can have many missed draws, such as A 2, K 8, and 8 4.

To make this situation even more difficult, it is tough to know how often he is three-betting with the junky hands. He may only three-bet hands like 8 4 25% of the time whereas he may three-bet Q-Q 100% of the time. If he is bluffing with almost all reasonable bluffing candidates, he has 38 bluffing combinations.

So, if he is value betting all reasonable hands while also bluffing with all reasonable hands, he will have 63% value bets and 37% bluffs. This means that when I call with my marginal pair, I will win 37% of the time.

Since the pot odds dictate that I need to win 33% of the time to justify calling, I should call. Given this hand is from a final table, I need to call off a bit tighter due to the payout implications, but even then, calling is likely acceptable.

However, my opponent is almost certainly not playing his range in this exact manner. For instance, he may check K-Q and Q-J on the turn, or bet the turn and then check the river (to induce bluffs from all my missed draws). If he doesn’t have K-Q and Q-J in his range, he has only 41 premium made hands, meaning he has 52% value hands and 48% bluffs, allowing me to easily call.

He may also be three-betting with an even wider range, meaning he will have more bluffs. He may also turn some hands I did not select into bluffs, such as 6-6 and 7-6 suited. Alternatively, he may not three-bet K-6 suited, 10-6 suited, 8-5 suited, 8-4 suited, 5-4 suited, and 4-3 suited before the flop. If that is the case, his bluffing range is only 31%, allowing me to easily fold.

That said, some players will only play their value bets or bluffs in this manner. The problem is you have no way of knowing if that is the case against your specific opponent.

It is also important to assess your own range to ensure you are not folding too often. In this spot, if I have and call with all straights, sets, two pairs, and most top pairs, (meaning I don’t raise these hands on the previous betting rounds) I will be calling often enough to not allow my opponent to blindly profit by bluffing with any two cards.

So, this is a close spot. Given a few of the other players remaining were relatively inexperienced and I would still have 72 big blinds if I folded, I think folding is the best play.

After I folded, I was quite unhappy with myself. My subconscious was screaming at me to call, but I didn’t. When that happens, it is important to silence that inner voice and continue playing your best poker.

If you want to improve your preflop game even more, I put together a Five-Day Preflop Challenge with the help of Jonathan Jaffe and Matt Affleck. This challenge is completely free inside Card Player Poker School!

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Jonathan Little is a two-time WPT winner and the 2024 PokerGO Cup champion with nearly $9 million million in live tournament earnings, best-selling author of 15 educational poker books, and 2019 GPI Poker Personality of the Year. If you want to increase your poker skills and learn to crush the games, check out his training site at PokerCoaching.com/cardplayer.