Good morning from Brussels.

As the traditional Franco-German axis faces instability at home, Poland seems willing to exploit the momentum and step up its role in EU decision-making regarding future balances. 

The timing offers fertile ground for Warsaw, as Poland is taking over the rotating EU presidency in January with the handling of Ukraine taking centre stage, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is already showing his intentions:

“I really want Poland to be the country that will not only be present but will set the tone for these decisions that are to bring us security and secure Polish interests,” Tusk said.

Meanwhile, Paris and Berlin show signals of recognising Poland’s rising influence. 

Emmanuel Macron is visiting Warsaw on Thursday to debrief Tusk about his talks with Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris last weekend. 

Similarly, Euractiv’s Nick Alipour reported that German election frontrunner Friedrich Merz went on a “charm offensive” in Eastern Europe, visiting Warsaw on Tuesday after a meeting with Zelenskyy the day before in Kyiv. 

Earlier this week, Mario Draghi noted that the Franco-German leadership was weakened but saw “no other leadership” capable of guiding Europe into a common future. However, he called for patience until the German elections.

Draghi’s comments likely targeted Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, who heavily advertises her close ties with Trump’s administration and eyes an increased EU role.

However, Poles also believe that Trump will speak easier to Warsaw than to Berlin, given the problematic relations during Angela Merkel's chancellorship and the latter’s handling of the Ukraine case. 

As the standoff between the Georgian Dream government and anti-government protesters intensifies, the EU is under increasing pressure to respond to Tbilisi's backsliding.

In Brussels politics, the EPP, Socialists and Democrats, and Renew Europe have agreed to upgrade the European Parliament’s subcommittees on defence and health to full standing committees and establish two new special committees. 

Moreover, a draft seen by Euractiv’s Jonathan Packroff suggests that the EPP group will adopt a position paper on Wednesday on securing the bloc’s struggling car industry without calling for an initially proposed two-year delay of CO2 targets.

In tech, an expert proposed a sovereignty-safe alternative to the EU telecoms consolidation plan.

BELFAST

Brexit deal survives Northern Ireland Assembly vote after heated debate. A cornerstone of the EU-UK Brexit agreement will survive at least four more years following a controversial vote in the Northern Ireland Assembly on Tuesday night. Read more.

BERLIN

Friedrich Merz, the current favourite to become Germany‘s next chancellor, sought to convince Eastern European allies that he will stand for closer coordination with them on security matters during visits to Ukraine and Poland this week. Read more.

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PARIS

Macron promises to appoint new prime minister 'within 48 hours'. During a meeting with the majority of leaders of French political groups on Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron pledged to appoint a prime minister "within 48 hours," even though no coalition yet appears capable of securing a majority in the National Assembly. Read more.

Macron to head to Warsaw to brief Tusk, Duda on US-Ukraine talks. French President Emmanuel Macron is expected in Warsaw on Thursday to debrief on conversations with US President-elect Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy over the weekend, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced. Read more.

MADRID

Former Catalan president Carles Puigdemont's JxCat joined the opposition Partido Popular (PP-EPP) in a parliamentary vote to abolish an electricity production tax, reaffirming its estrangement from Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez. Read more.

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ROME

Italy behind on Recovery Fund spending as 2026 deadline approaches. Italy is falling behind on spending, Partito Democratico MEP Antonio Misiani told Euractiv, putting the spotlight on the work of Raffaele Fitto, the new commission vice-president for cohesion and recovery, during his time in government. Read more.

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LISBON 

Portugal only EU country where gender equality at work has worsened. Portugal was the only EU country to score lower in workplace equality, the European Institute for Gender Equality (EIGE) said in its Gender Equality Index 2024 published on Tuesday. Read more.

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ATHENS

Donald Trump Jr. fiancée picked for US ambassador to Athens amid rumours of a breakup. Kimberly Guilfoyle, a supporter of President-elect Donald J. Trump and fiancée of his son Donald Trump Jr., was appointed US ambassador to Greece. The announcement on Tuesday evening coincided with tabloid speculation about a possible breakup and Donald Trump Jr.’s alleged new relationship with socialite Bettina Anderson. 

Guilfoyle’s appointment drew praise from the president-elect, who described her as a “close friend and ally” with extensive experience in law, media, and politics. Guilfoyle expressed her gratitude for the appointment, stating she looked forward to strengthening ties with Greece and advancing the Trump administration's agenda. Despite the swirling rumours, Trump Jr. publicly supported her appointment, calling her an “amazing leader.”

STOCKHOLM

Nordic justice ministers still not happy after TikTok, Meta gang violence meeting. Nordic justice ministers have demanded more concrete action from social media companies to combat the role of platforms in gang activity following an unsatisfactory meeting in Copenhagen on Monday. Read more.

WARSAW

Human Rights Watch urges EU action against Poland’s illegal pushbacks. Human Rights Watch (HRW) has asked the European Commission to take immediate action against Poland for forcing asylum seekers back to Belarus as the country prepares to take over the six-month EU presidency in January. Read more.

Poland's Tusk signals possible winter peace talks for Ukraine. Peace talks on the war in Ukraine could possibly start this winter, Poland's prime minister said on Tuesday, as he outlined a series of planned meetings as Warsaw seeks to play a leading role in ending the conflict. Read more.

SOFIA

Bulgaria will stop the transit of Russian gas through the Balkan Stream unless Gazprom finds a new way to pay following the imposition of US sanctions, caretaker Energy Minister Vladimir Malinov said on Tuesday. Read more.

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BUCHAREST

Romania’s pro-European parties begin coalition talks amid tense national mood. Romania's pro-European parties began negotiations to form a coalition government on Tuesday afternoon amid tensions following the annulment of the presidential elections by the country's Constitutional Court last week. Read more.

• EU: Commission President Ursula von der Leyen participates in the European Trade Union Confederation Executive Committee meeting; Receives Chairman of IG Bergbau, Chemie, Energie (IGBCE) Michael Vassiliades;
• Parliament President Roberta Metsola hosts Republic of Moldova President Maia Sandu;
• Economy and Productivity Implementation and Simplification Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis participates European Central Bank Governing Council meeting;
• Trade and Economic Security Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency Commissioner Maros Šefčovič delivers closing remarks at 11th annual high level conference on Raw Materials;
• Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy Commissioner Jessika Roswall meets with Executive Director of European Environment Agency (EEA) Leena Ylä-Mononen;
• Agriculture and Food Commissioner Christophe Hansen participates in 2024 EU Youth Policy Dialogue on “Building together the future of farming, food, and rural areas”.

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[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Daniel Eck, Alice Taylor-Braçe]