Pound flip flops on BoE rate comments (again)

The Bank of England (BoE) has really got the pound moving this week, with fresh rate-related remarks helping GBP exchange rates recover some of their previous losses.

GBP/EUR bounced back from €1.1308 to €1.1396, GBP/USD crept up from $1.2591 to $1.2707, GBP/AUD advanced from AU$1.6653 to AU$1.6799, GBP/NZD rallied from NZ$1.7390 to NZ$1.7562 and GBP/CAD advanced from a low of C$1.6735 to C$1.6913.

What’s coming up today? Keep scrolling to find out…

What’s been happening?

The pound's week of ups and downs continued on Wednesday, with the currency staging something of a rebound.

So, what gave Sterling a leg up?

Well, it wasn't the Queen's Speech. After being delayed following the uncertain outcome of the UK general election, when it was finally delivered the speech only served to highlight how tenuous PM Theresa May's position is.

The speech focused on the importance of listening to industry and public opinion when it came to the UK's Brexit negotiations, and key features of the Conservative's election manifesto (like legalising fox hunting) were notably absent.

The pound was little moved by the speech, but did get a little over excited by comments issued by the Bank of England's (BoE) chief economist Andy Haldane.

Haldane's hints that interest rates could rise in the second half of this year flew in the face of comments made by BoE Governor Mark Carney earlier in the week. As Haldane is typically cautious in his attitude to monetary policy, this personally transplant was enough to boost the pound.

Haldane stated; ‘Provided the data are still on track. I do think that beginning the process of withdrawing some of the incremental stimulus provided last August would be prudent moving into the second half of the year.’

What's coming up?

With the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) yet to come to terms, political uncertainty is likely to keep the pound under pressure today.

The latest reports indicate that the DUP broke off talks with the Conservatives for 36 hours amid demands for the government to spend £2 billion on Northern Ireland.

In terms of economic reports, we’ve got the UK’s CBI trends total orders/trends selling prices figures, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) economic bulletin, Canadian retail sales numbers, Eurozone consumer confidence data and US initial/continuing jobless claims stats.

If the Eurozone’s sentiment index shows the slight increase in confidence forecast by economists the GBP/EUR exchange rate could dip slightly before the end of the day. Meanwhile, GBP/CAD could lose ground if Canadian retail sales less autos rose by 0.7% in April month-on-month, as projected.

We’re here to talk currency whenever you need us, so get in touch if you want to know more about the latest news or how it could impact your currency transfers.

Phil McHugh,
Trading Floor Manager

Phil provides dealing and hedging services whilst also helping to manage Currencies Direct overall market exposure.