| A funny old place: Ahead of the 12 December election, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Conservative Party are currently leading in the opinion polls with c37% of support versus 24% for Labour. However, in the UK with its “first past the post” electoral system, that level of support may not guarantee a majority. Labour won 355 out of 646 seats in 2005 with 35.2% of the vote. In 2010, the Conservatives garnered 306 seats out of 650 with 36.1% of votes. In 2015, with 36.9% support, the Conservatives won 330 out of 650 seats. A lot depends on votes in marginal seats. |
| Mind the gap: Instead of looking merely at the support for the winning party, we compare the difference between the popular support for the winner to that for the runner-up in past elections. As our chart shows, with only a few exceptions, this gives a reasonable fit with the majority of seats for the leading party. Two points are noteworthy. |
| 1. | Labour has a structural advantage: While the Conservatives have won more elections, they typically require a larger share of the popular vote for a majority. As our chart shows, all of Labour’s election victories were either close to or below the line of best fit. Labour enjoys a positive skew on its seat count relative to its popular vote. |
| 2. | Johnson in pole position: If the current 37% support for the Conservatives and their 13ppt lead over Labour holds at the upcoming election, Johnson should secure a comfortable majority. |
| The 2010 warning: There are always exceptions to the rule. In 2010, the strong showing for the Liberal Democrats and other smaller parties collectively won them 88 seats. Even with c7% more of the popular vote than Labour, the Tories thus ended up 20 seats short of a majority. As the Liberal Democrats, the Brexit Party and the SNP are unusually strong at the moment, the Conservatives’ lead over Labour probably overstates the number of seats they can expect to win. That this election will be fought over a largely binary issue – ie Brexit – creates additional peculiarities that may mean that voting patterns could deviate a lot from the usual trends. |
| Sustaining the big lead: Johnson may need a lead of, say, 8ppt over Labour to be on the safe side. If he runs a bad campaign, he can still squander some of his current 13ppt advantage. So far, that seems unlikely, however. In recent weeks, the Conservatives have edged up in the polls, mostly at the expense of the Brexit Party. The critical question is, therefore, whether or not Johnson can maintain the large poll gap for the next six weeks. |
Holger Schmieding
Chief Economist
+44 20 3207 7889
holger. schmieding@ berenberg. com
Kallum Pickering
Senior Economist
+44 20 3465 2672
kallum. pickering@ berenberg. com
Florian Hense
European Economist
+4420 3207 7859
florian. hense@ berenberg. com
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