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Bitcoin hit $118,661 this week. |
But the rest of crypto? |
It’s mostly dead weight. |
Altcoin season was supposed to be underway by now, but almost everything outside BTC looks like a chart crime scene—except one specific altcoin. |
So in today’s special edition, we’re breaking down: |
Why the market still feels weak The one altcoin with real breakout potential How to actually play this cycle if you’re investing in H2 2025 |
Let’s get into it 👇 |
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📉 Altcoin Graveyard |
If you’ve felt like “everything’s up” in crypto, it’s because Bitcoin’s carrying the market on its back. |
Everyone’s still waiting for altcoins to fly. But if you strip out Bitcoin, Memecoins, and a few isolated pops—it’s mostly just red. |
To drive the point home: |
Coin | All-time high | Current price | Drop from ATH | Cardano | $2.91 | $0.75 | -74% | Avalanche | $123.87 | $21.32 | -83% | Solana | $256.51 | $166.45 | -35% |
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Not only are these altcoins failing to break out—they’re lagging despite Bitcoin printing new highs. |
And that’s reflected in one of the most important charts right now: BTC dominance. |
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(Spoiler: it hasn’t been this high since 2021.) |
The point? Capital is consolidating. Big money is choosing safety and liquidity over new narratives. |
Why Arthur Hayes thinks BTC dominance will hit 71% before altseason → |
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📊 Why Altcoin Season Hasn’t Arrived (Yet?) |
Altcoins tend to outperform when: |
Bitcoin momentum slows down (so risk rotates out) Narratives with legs take over (e.g. DeFi summer, NFTs, ETH killers) Retail gets FOMO and piles in |
But right now? |
BTC keeps running Alt narratives are stale Retail is barely showing up |
A lot of investors are still hoping for a “blast-off” moment in alts—but that kind of rotation usually comes after BTC cools off or chops sideways for a while. |
We’re not saying altseason won’t happen—we’re just saying the current data doesn’t support it yet, and we don’t know if it would even look like it did in previous bull markets if it does arrive. |
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🔥 The One Altcoin Bucking the Trend |
There is one exception. |
A decentralized exchange token called Hyperliquid. |
Ansem, one of the sharpest traders on Crypto Twitter, called it back in January when it was trading around $23. It broke $45 this week—up 96% since his original thesis. |
A long-time Twitter analyst, Ansem has made several major calls correctly in the past. I still remember when he called NEAR, Octopus, DeFi Kingdoms, and POKT Network at the start of 2022—and how all of them soared over the following quarter. Not saying his word is gold or that he gets it right every time; just saying that his analysis is typically solid. |
Anyway, what’s driving Hyperliquid’s growing price? |
“Main differentiator for me w/ hyperliquid is that the core business is enshrined within the L1. Other chains leak a lot of value to apps built on top.” –@blknoiz06 |
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Essentially, Hyperliquid is a layer 1 (L1) blockchain with a great decentralized exchange built on top of it—that’s the main business that Ansem’s talking about. His point is that Hyperliquid looks good to him as an investment because all of its value stays within a closed circuit on the chain itself instead of flying off to other chains or exchanges. |
From June 29th, before Hyperliquid took off over 20%: |
| you've been gifted a month to buy $HYPE between $10B-$15B mcap, don't believe you'll have that much longer main trade in Q3 should be looking for swing longs here, will easily outperform Bitcoin & there's still a ton of ppl sidelined on this trade bullpen.fi/@ansem | |
| | 1:01 PM • Jun 29, 2025 | | |
| 1.52K Likes 112 Retweets | 276 Replies |
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Interestingly, the coin sits right above a $15 billion market cap currently. |
Ansem believes Hyperliquid could become the leading beta to Bitcoin this cycle—especially now that it’s headed for a Binance US listing (though still not on Coinbase or Robinhood). |
It also became the first major alt to reclaim its previous ATH. |
Whether it holds that level or not, it’s one of the few names with actual momentum and an active narrative behind it. |
👉 See Ansem’s full breakdown on Hyperliquid → |
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🎤 Quick Break: Decide What We Cover Next |
Next week’s deep dive: what’s your vote? |
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Now, back to the action… |
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🏢 Bitcoin Is the Story—but BTC Treasuries Are Outperforming |
Bitcoin isn’t just doing well—it’s leading global markets right now. |
It hit $118,661 this week Standard Chartered sees BTC at $135K by Q3 and $200K by year’s end Institutional demand is rising (spot ETFs, fund flows, treasury adoption) Regulatory clarity is improving under Trump (including the crypto-friendlier “Big Beautiful Bill”) |
In short: the macro tailwinds are real. |
But that’s led to another trend—and one that might not last forever. |
BTC Treasury Stocks Are on Fire. |
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up 3x more than Bitcoin over the past five years Riot Platforms (RIOT) popped 40%+ during BTC’s last leg up Other stocks like Coinbase and Marathon Digital are riding the wave |
Why? Leverage. |
They give you exposure to Bitcoin’s upside with more volatility. But that also comes with baggage. |
These companies aren’t differentiated. They don’t offer unique value beyond buying Bitcoin for themselves. |
You’re often just paying a premium to let someone else hold BTC and tell you they’re “early.” |
They’re still worth tracking in the short-term—but don’t mistake the hype for long-term alpha. |
If you believe in BTC long-term, just buy BTC. |
But if you're looking to trade the headlines and juice the beta? This is one corner of the market that's working right now. |
See Standard Chartered’s full analysis of BTC → |
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✅ How to Play H2 Crypto |
All in all, here’s how we’re thinking about the current setup: |
1. Stay BTC-heavy The market is rewarding simplicity. Don’t overcomplicate. |
2. Avoid dead altcoins If the token's still -70% from ATH and has no new story—skip it. |
3. Watch for breakout coins Hyperliquid is one to watch. Maybe Eth or Sol if they pick up momentum next. But pick spots carefully. |
4. Consider BTC proxies Equities like MSTR, COIN, and RIOT are moving with strong beta. Know the risks, but the momentum is there. |
5. Don’t chase altseason It may come. But betting on what should happen is how people stay sidelined for years. |
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Hope you found today’s special edition valuable. |
Have a great weekend, and see you Monday. |
- Brandon |
⭐️ What did you think of today's edition? |
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