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| Tuesday, December 19, 2023 |
| Welcome to the Tuesday edition of the Pick Six newsletter! |
| After demoting their defensive coordinator over the weekend, the Eagles might want to think about demoting everyone on the defensive coaching staff after Monday night's loss to the Seahawks. With two minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Eagles were beating the Seahawks, 17-13. To win the game, all they had to do was keep DREW LOCK from driving 92 yards. |
| Considering Lock only threw for 96 yards TOTAL in the first three quarters, that seemed like a very doable task, but nope, the Eagles made Lock look like Joe Montana, and Montana/Lock immediately drove the Seahawks down the field for a game-winning touchdown. |
| The Seahawks' 20-17 win threw a wrench into the NFC playoff race, and we'll be taking a look today at how the playoff picture is shaking out as we head into Week 16. Also, we'll be handing out grades from Monday's game, plus we'll be going over Pete Prisco's latest power rankings. |
| As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. All right, let's get to the rundown. |
| 1. Today's show: Early bets for Week 16 |
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| With Week 15 officially in the books, we decided to get an early jump on Week 16 by revealing some of our best bets for the upcoming week of NFL action. |
| During today's episode, Katie Mox and Will Brinson were joined by Emory Hunt and Alex Selelnick, our gambling gurus from SportsLine. |
| The crew covered several of their favorite early bets for Week 15, and we're going to look at a couple of those below. |
| Hunt: Rams (-4.5) to cover against the Saints. Although both of these teams are 7-7, Hunt doesn't think this game is going to be close. "The Rams are the better team on both sides of the ball. They're much more balanced on offense and you can trust Matthew Stafford much more than you can Derek Carr. Carr is going to be in trouble in this ball game. I think the Rams win this easily."Brinson: Bengals (-2.5) to cover against Steelers. Brinson has no faith in Pittsburgh "The Steelers are terrible." Over the past five weeks, the Steelers are averaging just 14 points per game, and they've been so bad that they're now turning to Mason Rudolph this week in hopes of finding an offensive spark. |
| If you want to hear the rest of the props and early best bets for Week 16, you can do that by listening to the show here. You can also watch today's show on YouTube by clicking here. |
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| 2. Grades for Seahawks' wild 20-17 win over Eagles |
| Here's a look at our grades for each team from Seattle's crazy win on Monday night: |
| EAGLES GRADE: B- |
| On a night where he was battling an illness, Jalen Hurts had an erratic game. The Eagles quarterback struggled with his accuracy, and he was at his worst during a fourth quarter where he was picked off twice by the Seahawks, including a long pass that came with just six seconds left. With Hurts struggling through the air, he ended up doing most of his damage on the ground, rushing for a team-high 82 yards and two touchdowns. Even though the offense was erratic, the Eagles still almost pulled this win out. The Philly defense shut down the Seahawks for the first 58 minutes of the game before surrendering a 92-yard drive in the final two minutes. This was a shocking loss for an Eagles team that now might be staring at a wild-card berth instead of a division title. |
| Eagles notes |
| The Eagles have now lost three in a row after starting the season 10-1, which is extremely rare. As a matter of fact, since the schedule moved to 16 games in 1978, that's only happened to one other team. In 1986, the Jets lost five in a row after starting 10-1, and they ended up losing in the divisional round of the playoffs. The loss also marked the first time in Hurts' career where he lost a game that the Eagles were leading by at least seven points in the fourth quarter. Hurts was 30-0 in that situation before Monday night. |
| SEAHAWKS GRADE: B |
| With their season hanging in the balance, the Seahawks needed a win and got it in the most improbable way possible. After throwing for just 96 yards in the first three quarters, Drew Lock caught fire on a game-winning TD drive where he drove the Seahawks 92 yards in just 84 seconds. Lock threw for 92 yards on the drive, including a 29-yard TD pass to Jaxon Smith-Njigba (you can see the play here ). Before the drive, Seattle's offense had mostly revolved around Kenneth Walker III, who rushed for 86 yards and a TD on 19 carries. Defensively, the Seahawks played nearly perfect football during a fourth quarter where Julian Love picked off Jalen Hurts twice, including one that sealed the game with six seconds left. The Seahawks survived by the skin of their teeth, and because of that, they're very much alive in the NFC playoff race. |
| Seahawks notes |
| Drew Lock didn't do much over the first three quarters, but he caught fire when it counted. The Seahawks QB threw for more yards in the fourth quarter (112) than he did in the first three quarters COMBINED (96). On the Seahawks' game-winning TD drive, Lock threw for 92 yards and a TD. The game-winning TD pass went to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who is now the only rookie over the past 63 years to catch two game-winning TD passes in the final minute of the fourth quarter. JSN also had a game-winner back in Week 7 against the Browns. |
| If you want to check out our full takeaways from the game, you can do that here. |
| 3. Prisco's power rankings heading into Week 16 |
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| With two of Pete Prisco's top-five teams losing this week (Eagles and Cowboys), Pete had to do some major re-shuffling at the top of his rankings heading into Week 16. |
| With that in mind, let's check out the top five: |
| 49ers (same as last week)Ravens (up one spot from last week)Dolphins (up two spots from last week)Chiefs (up two spots from last week)Lions (up two spots from last week) |
| Dropped out: Eagles, Cowboys |
| I'm not going to spoil the rest of the power rankings here, but I am going to give you a few nuggets. Here's what has changed since Prisco's last power rankings: |
The biggest jump this week went to the Seahawks. After watching them pull out a shocking win Monday over the Eagles, Prisco moved them up four spots, from 19th to 15th. In the AFC, the biggest jump went to the Bills, who moved up three spots following their dominant win over the Cowboys. Thanks to that win, Prisco moved them up from 10th to seventh. The biggest drop this week went to the Cowboys, who got absolutely destroyed, 31-10, in Buffalo on Sunday. The fastest way to fall in Prisco's rankings is to lose a game by three touchdowns, and that's what the Cowboys did. For their embarrassing loss, Prisco dropped them six spots, from second to eighth.Now, let's talk about the worst team in the NFL. The Panthers actually WON A GAME this week, but it wasn't enough to get them out of the cellar. The 2-12 Panthers have been dead last in the NFL since October, and they'll be remaining there for at least another week.
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| If you want to know where your favorite team ended up in Prisco's Week 16 power rankings, be sure to click here. If you want to argue with Prisco over his rankings, you can do that on Twitter by clicking here. I argue with him all the time about everything. |
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| 4. Breech's Week 16 picks: Cowboys win shootout over Dolphins |
| It's Tuesday, which can only mean one thing around these parts: It's time for my weekly picks. |
| As most of you know at this point, this is the part of the newsletter where I give you three picks and then we cross our fingers and hope all three picks are right. I've gone 29-11-4 against the spread over the past three weeks, so let's just go ahead and assume that all of my picks are going to be right this week. |
| Here are three of my picks for Week 16. |
Saints (7-7) at Rams (7-7) -- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime): The Rams have won four of five games since their Week 10 bye, and a big reason for that is because they've actually been able to run the ball. They've been averaging 150.2 yards per game since Week 10, which should come in handy against a Saints defense that ranks 25th in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run this year. (They're surrendering 126.4 yards per game.) If the Saints decide to go all-in and stop the run, then Matthew Stafford will probably throw for 700 yards. PICK: Rams 27-17 over Saints Cincinnati (8-6) at Pittsburgh (7-7) -- Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC): The Steelers are so desperate to spark their offense that they're turning to a guy (Mason Rudolph), who hasn't started a game in two years. I hate picking against Rudolph on Christmas weekend, but I'm going to do it here. PICK: Bengals 20-17 over SteelersDallas (10-4) at Miami (10-4) -- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC): The Dolphins are 0-3 this season against teams that currently have a winning record, and they lost those three games by an average of 16.6 points. The Cowboys have a winning record, so I'm guessing that can't bode well for Miami. PICK: Cowboys 38-31 over Dolphins
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| To check out the rest of my picks for Week 16, be sure to click here. |
| 5. NFL playoff picture heading into Week 16 |
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| With only three weeks left to play in the NFL season, now seems like a good time to break down the playoff picture. |
| Here's a look at the top-seven teams from each conference (* = clinched playoff berth): |
AFC
*1. Ravens (AFC North leader, 11-3)
2. Dolphins (AFC East leader, 10-4)
3. Chiefs (AFC West leader, 9-5)
4. Jaguars (AFC South leader, 8-6)
5. Browns (9-5)
6. Bengals (8-6)
7. Colts (8-6)
First teams out (in order): Texans (8-6), Bills (8-6), Steelers (7-7), Broncos (7-7) |
| As we head into Week 16, only one team in the AFC has clinched a playoff spot and that's the Ravens. There are two games this week that could turn the playoff standings upside down with the Texans hosting the Browns and the Steelers hosting the Bengals. The AFC South is also up in the air with the Jags, Texans and Colts all tied at 8-6. Of course, a tie wouldn't be the worst thing for the Jags because they hold almost every tiebreaker over Indy and Houston. The Jaguars swept the Colts, so they win the tiebreaker there. As for Houston, the Jags split with them, but if Jacksonville beats the Titans in Week 18, then the Jags would clinch the division record tiebreaker, which would give them the title if any of the three teams finish in a tie for first place. |
NFC
*1. 49ers (NFC West leader, 11-3)
*2. Cowboys (NFC East leader, 10-4)
3. Lions (NFC North leader, 10-4)
4. Buccaneers (NFC South leader, 7-7)
*5. Eagles (10-4)
6. Vikings (7-7)
7. Rams (7-7)
First teams out (in order): Seahawks (7-7), Saints (7-7), Falcons (6-8), Packers (6-8) |
| The Seahawks kept their playoff hopes alive with a huge win Monday night. The Seahawks have a very friendly schedule to end the season (at Titans, Steelers, at Cardinals), so there's definitely a chance they could get to 10-7. As for last night's loss, the Eagles are now on a three-game losing streak, but the news isn't all bad for them. As long as they win out, they should win the NFC East. As things currently stand, if Dallas and Philadelphia both win out to finish 13-4, the Eagles would take the division by winning the rarely-used FIFTH tiebreaker, which is strength of victory. |
| If you want a full look at the playoff standings, we've got that right here. |
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| 6. Extra points: Falcons and Steelers expected to make QB changes |
| It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. |
Taylor Heinicke likely to start for Falcons. For the second time this year, Desmond Ridder has been benched for Taylor Heinicke. The team announced today that Heinicke will be the starter Sunday against the Colts. The Falcons are 0-2 with Heinicke this year, but both losses did come by five points or less. Steelers turning to Mason Rudolph. For the first time in two years, Mason Rudolph is likely going to be the starting QB for the Steelers. Mike Tomlin announced Monday that Mitchell Trubisky would he heading to the bench, paving the way for Rudolph. However, there is a small chance that Kenny Pickett could be healthy enough to play, and if he's available, it sounds like he'll be the starter. You can read more about the situation here.
Ja'Marr Chase expected to miss some time. The Bengals receiver, who injured his shoulder Sunday, isn't expected to play this week against the Steelers. Chase could also miss some time after that, according to NFL.com, but it will depend on how his shoulder heals. For more details on Chase's injury, be sure to head here. Steelers secondary takes a hit with an injury and a suspension. Steelers safety Damontae Kazee has been suspended for the rest of the season for a hit that he made on Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr. in Week 15. Kazee is appealing the suspension, but if he doesn't win, then he's done for the year. That will leave the Steelers extremely short-handed in the secondary against the Bengals on Saturday because Minkah Fitzpatrick won't be available due to a knee injury that he's dealing with. Ravens running back suffers torn ACL. The Ravens third-leading rusher, Keaton Mitchell, is out for the season after tearing his ACL against the Jaguars on Sunday night. It's a big loss for the Ravens, if only because Mitchell was arguably the most explosive running back on the team. Before going down with the injury, Mitchell had been averaging an absurd 8.4 yards per rushing attempt this year. He'll finish the season with 396 yards and two touchdowns on 47 carries.
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