Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

I don't want to make it seem like the start of the NFL season is just around the corner, but the first regular-season game of the year will be kicking off in just 14 weeks, so please remember to mark your calendar accordingly. 

The first game of the season will feature two NFC East teams, which I'm only mentioning because we're going to be ranking every division in the NFL today and SPOILER ALERT, the NFC East actually came out on top. Besides our divisional power rankings, we'll also be trying to predict when each rookie quarterback will make their first start. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

The NFC East has a lot to brag about right now: Not only is it the home of the reigning Super Bowl champions, but it's also the best division in the NFL. At least according to Jeff Kerr. Now that we've made it through free agency and the draft, Kerr decided to rank all eight divisions and the NFC East came out on top. 

Let's check out his rankings: 

1. NFC East (Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Commanders)
2. NFC North (Packers, Lions, Vikings, Bears)
3. AFC West (Chiefs, Raiders, Chargers, Broncos)
4. AFC North (Bengals, Steelers, Ravens, Browns)
5. NFC West (49ers, Rams, Seahawks, Cardinals)
6. AFC East (Bills, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets)
7. NFC South (Falcons, Panthers, Buccaneers, Saints) 
8. AFC South (Colts, Texans, Jaguars, Titans)

Although the NFC South is seventh, it actually went 9-7 against the NFC East last season, so that tells you how evenly matched most of these divisions are. I feel like the NFC North and AFC West also have a strong case to be ranked first overall, but it's hard to argue against a division that is the home of the Super Bowl champs. 

If you want to know why Kerr ranked each division where he did, you can check out his full story here. 

It's almost June 1, which is a big day in the NFL. June 1 is one of those dates that gets thrown around a lot in conversation during the NFL offseason, but not everyone knows what it means, so let's break it down. 

During the offseason, each NFL team is allowed to cut up to two players with a post-June 1 designation. When this designation gets used, a team will cut a player -- let's say that happens in March -- but the team won't gain any cap space at the time of the cut. Instead, they'll gain the extra salary cap space after June 1. 

If you're wondering why a team would go this route, it's because the player's salary cap hit can be spread out over two years if he's released with a post-June 1 designation. If they don't use the designation and a player gets cut before June 1, then the team has to eat his entire salary cap hit that year. 

This also applies to players who are being traded. For instance, if the Falcons were to trade Kirk Cousins BEFORE June 1, they'd be hit with a $37.5 million dead money charge on the salary cap. However, if they trade him after June 1, they can split that hit up over two years by taking a $12.5 million hit in 2025 and a $25 million hit in 2026. 

This makes it a lot easier to trade a player who has a huge cap hit. So who might be traded after June 1? Cody Benjamin took a look at a few candidates. 

• Falcons QB Kirk Cousins. "Cousins was a no-show for the start of the Atlanta Falcons' voluntary OTAs; it's just the latest indication the quarterback prefers a fresh start after his late-year benching in 2024."
• Titans QB Will Levis. "The Titans aren't rushing to move on from the former second-round pick, at least publicly, but ever since the club's new regime spent this year's No. 1 overall pick on Cam Ward, the writing has been on the wall."
• Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. "Miami would save close to $15 million by trading Hill after June 1 versus suffering a net loss of $600,000 by dealing the 'Cheetah' prior to June 1."

Cody has a few more trade candidates in his full story on June 1, which you can check out here.  

There were a total of six quarterbacks taken during the first five rounds of the NFL Draft this year and there's a good chance that we'll see several of those quarterbacks get on the field this year. Some players (like Cam Ward) are a virtual lock to start in Week 1, but for other players (like Jaxson Dart), it's not as easy to predict when they might make their first start. 

With that in mind. Josh Edwards took a look at four of the top rookies and then proceeded to predict when they'll make their first start. 

• Titans QB Cam Ward: Week 1. "Coach Brian Callahan has publicly declared an open competition between former second-round pick Will Levis and Ward, but the image of the player deemed unworthy of starting (Levis) being the Week 1 starter over the No. 1 overall selection is not a good one. In an ideal world, Ward will make the most of training camp and preseason repetitions and be the clear-cut winner of said open competition, but he is going to start Week 1 regardless."
• Saints QB Tyler Shough: Week 1.  "New Orleans has Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Shough competing for the starting spot in the wake of Derek Carr's retirement. Shough is the most talented of the trio ... the franchise wants to avoid a tennis match where it is going back and forth among its quarterbacks. There needs to be little doubt Shough is going to be the quarterback of the foreseeable future, which means being patient through the ups and downs."
• Giants QB Jaxson Dart: Week 9.  "Russell Wilson has collected enough goodwill in his playing career to occupy the starting job temporarily, but eventually he will give way to Dart. ... Allowing Dart to sit and learn for eight weeks before taking over the starting role denotes patience, but also allows him to make his debut at home against a traditionally good 49ers defense."
• Browns QB Shedeur Sanders or Dillon Gabriel: Week 10. "The Browns will be coming off a bye and facing the Jets in Week 10. Coach Kevin Stefanski and the front office will have nine games afterward to assess a potential future with their rookie quarterbacks."

We've got Josh's full story on rookie quarterbacks here. 

Now that we're done talking about rookie quarterbacks, let's move our conversation to second-year quarterbacks. From Caleb Williams to Drake Maye to Jayden Daniels to J.J. McCarthy to Bo Nix, there are quite a few players who look like they're primed to have a huge sophomore season in the NFL. 

So who's going to improve the most from their rookie year to their second year? Glad you asked. NFL Draft guru Chris Trapasso decided to rank each 2024 QB based on their chances of taking a huge leap forward in 2025. 

Let's take a look at the top three quarterbacks in his ranking: 

1. Caleb Williams. "The Bears have given Williams a litany of support offensively, most namely with the hiring of Ben Johnson who has a genuine case for most creative/progressive play-designer in football. Ask Jared Goff. ... Williams has the inherent talent and the environment to experience a major breakout in 2025."

2. Drake Maye. "Maye is a magnificent talent. He's a sizable athlete with a plus arm and outstanding athleticism when the play breaks down. While it only came on 54 attempts, he averaged a seismic 7.8 yards per rush as a scrambler in 2024. ... Maye's flashes were more awe-inspiring than his game-to-game play. In my young QB grades project of a season ago, Maye had two "A-" games, two "D+" games, three in the "B" range, and four games somewhere in the "C" range. ... We should see a steadier Maye in 2025, especially because New England's offensive line will be more reliable and his targets are moderately better."

3. Jayden Daniels. "Daniels essentially rewrote the rookie quarterback record books in 2024 with a dazzlingly calm yet explosive first season en route to the Commanders advancing all the way to the NFC title game on the back of their young instant star. While Washington's new regime has done a marvelous job building around Daniels at the outset of his career, it will be a legitimate challenge for him to play considerably better than he did in 2024."

If you're wondering why Daniels is third here, it's because Trapasso thinks he's going to have a hard time topping what he did last season, and even if he does, it won't be by much, so he likely won't take a GIANT leap forward. If you want to read Trapasso's full ranking, you can do that here. 

Since everyone loves predictions, we've decided to make a prediction on the over/under total for EVERY team. Over the past week, we made it through the entire AFC, and now we're moving on to the NFL's other conference, where we'll be starting with the NFC East. 

Tyler Sullivan was in charge of making the predictions here. Let's check out whether he likes the over or the under for each team in the division: 

NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Philadelphia Eagles
ODDS: Over 11.5 (+100) / Under 11.5 (-120)
LEAN: Under
Sullivan's take: "Overall, the Eagles have a rough go of it when factoring in that when they play against their toughest opponents, it'll come on the road. For instance, Week 2 against the Chiefs will be played at Arrowhead Stadium. Meanwhile, they'll face the Buccaneers (Week 4), Vikings (Week 7), Packers (Week 10, Chargers (Week 14) and Bills (Week 17) -- all playoff teams from last year -- on the road. They'll still be a force within the conference, but we'll lean towards them posting an 11-6 record in 2025, thus going under their total."

Dallas Cowboys
ODDS: Over 7.5 (-150) / Under 7.5 (+125)
LEAN: Under 
Sullivan's take: "Dak Prescott's return is encouraging, but the Dallas quarterback struggled when he was on the field last year. The Cowboys were 3-5 in games Prescott started. Moreover, Prescott had four multi-interception games in his eight starts. If that rears its head in 2025, Dallas could be in trouble."

If you want to see how Tyler feels about the Commanders and Giants, you can get his take on those two teams here. 

This is always a busy time in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that's happening, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you. 

• Mike Vrabel responds to viral video of Stefon Diggs. The Patriots receiver was a hot topic on Wednesday after a video surfaced that showed him sharing an unidentified pink substance that may or may not have been legal. Vrabel definitely wasn't happy with the video. "Obviously, we want to make great decisions on and off the field," the new Patriots coach said. You can check out Vrabel's full comments here. Tyler Sullivan also broke down why the video is a bad look for the Patriots and you can check out his story here. 
• Caleb Williams wants to be in Chicago. Two weeks ago reports surfaced that Williams didn't want the Bears to draft him and although that appears to be true, the quarterback is now happy in Chicago, "I wanted to come here," Williams said Wednesday. In his first meeting with the media since that report came out, Williams broke down why he's thrilled to be in Chicago and you can check out his full comments here. 
  
• David Andrew retiring. After 10 seasons in the NFL, former Patriots center David Andrews has decided to call it quits. The two-time Super Bowl champion only played in four games last year due to a shoulder injury. After being released by the Patriots in March, Andrews was trying to decide if he wanted to continue his career with another team, but in the end, he decided to retire after playing his entire career with the same team. Andrews will be holding a press conference with the Patriots on Monday and you can get the full details here.  
• Von Miller plans on playing in 2025. The former Super Bowl MVP is planning on playing at least one more season. At 36, it wouldn't have been surprising if Miller decided to retire, but in an interview this week he made it clear that he plans to play in 2025. Miller is a free agent after being released by the Bills in March.