| | | | Thursday, April 18, 2024 | | For the top 50 or so of the rankings, the first month of the season is going to see almost no non-injury related movement. Scott White wrote about exactly that topic in his rankings movers piece Tuesday afternoon, noting that, "I'd go so far as to say that nothing we've seen so far is particularly meaningful, so to sell a player of [Julio Rodriguez's ] stature short over so inconsequential of a sample is about the most self-destructive thing you could do." | | Of course, Scott did move Rodriguez down a few spots, and that's where he and I differ, because I'm even more stringent about not moving anyone in the first-round range up or down based on a few weeks. In fact, my preference would be to leave my rankings completely alone for the first month or so of the season, only making exceptions for players with injuries or playing time changes that concretely impact their value. | | Of course, I'm not actually that stringent about it. As I wrote in yesterday's newsletter, I've aggressively ranked Jared Jones inside of my top-30 at starting pitcher already, and he's not the only player to see a significant move inside my top 100. Nico Hoerner, for example, has moved down about 20 spots in my overall rankings after he opened the season hitting seventh most days for the Cubs; he's been back up to the leadoff spot since Seiya Suzuki's injury, and hopefully that can get him going, but he has no steals through 17 games with only two attempts, a far cry from last season's 43 steals and 50 attempts in 150 games, and it's going to be tough for him to be worth starting in Fantasy if he doesn't start running more. | | | | I've also been pretty aggressive with Mike Trout, moving him up to 41st overall and No. 13 in the outfield rankings with his throwback start. Trout looks like the MVP version of himself again, clubbing a league-best eight homers through his first 18 games while also stealing three bases – those three steals are already his most in a season since 2019. I think you could make a case that this version of Trout, one who is running with intention for the first time in half a decade and crushing the ball like he usually does might be a first-round caliber player again, though it's hard to value him that way given the one lingering (and, unfortunately, unanswerable) question: Can he stay healthy? | | Those weren't the only changes I've made to my rankings since the start of the season, and you can listen to Wednesday's episode of Fantasy Baseball Today to hear Scott, Frank Stampfl, and I talk about our biggest rankings risers and fallers – or check out our respective rankings here. You can also get a sense of the entire league landscape with my Trade Values Charts here, which show how to value the top 200-plus players in trades in both Roto and H2H formats. | | In the rest of today's newsletter, we're recapping everything you need to know about from Wednesday's MLB action, including the top waiver-wire targets, injury news, and the biggest standouts. Let's see who might be rising in the rankings the next time we take a look. | | | | Wednesday's top waiver targets | | | | Daulton Varsho, OF, Blue Jays (46%) – Varsho is only 46% rostered in CBS Fantasy leagues, and to a certain extent, that makes sense: He's much better in Roto and Category leagues, and there are more H2H points leagues on the CBS platform, and he's probably a pretty fringe-y player in those leagues. But Varsho is also only 42% rostered in Yahoo, which tends to skew predominantly in the opposite direction, so I think we can still say he's under rostered at this point. He's off to a solid start to the season, as he hit his fourth homer Wednesday night to go with improved plate discipline in the early going. He still seems likely to remain a batting average liability, but I expect him to run more than his one steal to date would make you think, and that's a very useful Fantasy option in those category-based leagues. | | Brandon Pfaadt, SP, Diamondbacks (69%) – Homers are probably always going to remain an issue for Pfaadt, who gave up another one Wednesday, his fourth in as many starts. However, he also turned in his best outing of the season because he issued zero walks while striking out six over seven innings against the Cubs. He isn't getting enough strikeouts to quite make this approach work for him, but his swinging strike rate remains above 12%, so it's not unreasonable to expect more strikeouts moving forward, and his miniscule 2.9% walk rate would certainly help limit the damage of those homers he'll inevitably give up. Pfaadt has already been dropped in a bunch of leagues thanks to his 5.32 ERA, but I think you can probably expect something below 4.00 moving forward, likely with decent strikeout numbers and a helpful WHIP, so I'm actually pretty optimistic about him moving forward as a solid starting option against the right matchups. | | Andrew Abbott, SP, Reds (52%) – I liked Abbott as a sleeper coming into the season, so you'd think I was thrilled to see him sporting a 2.70 ERA through his first four starts. But I'm actually pretty pessimistic about him moving forward, because his swinging strike rate has completely collapsed from 10.9% to 6.3% entering Wednesday, when he had just seven whiffs on 104 pitches. Seeing as he's a flyball pitcher in a bad park, it's hard to be optimistic about Abbott if he isn't getting strikeouts, but that's more of a long-term question mark; in the more immediate future, he's got two starts in Week 5 of the Fantasy season, and is a worthwhile streamer even against some tough matches with the Phillies and Rangers. | | Trevor Rogers, SP, Marlins (22%) – Rogers is kind of similar to Abbott, in that a big part of the reason you want to add him right now is that he's facing two starts in Week 5, one against the Nationals and one against the Braves. The Braves are scary enough to consider avoiding in Roto leagues, but I think I'd be willing to roll the dice out there in deeper points leagues coming off Rogers' third solid start in a row, including one against those oh-so scary Braves. He has 20 strikeouts and eight walks in 20.2 innings of work with a 3.92 ERA and peripherals that suggest he's been even better than that. Injuries have derailed Rogers' once-promising career – and they've shaved a few ticks off his fastball, too – but he still looks pretty effective right now. | | Bryan De La Cruz, OF, Marlins (25%) – De La Cruz is starting to step up for the Marlins, who pretty desperately need more production from their lineup, especially with Jake Burger on the IL. De La Cruz was batting second Wednesday against the Giants and hit his third homer of the season, a solo shot for the team's only run of the game. De La Cruz has nine hits, including two homers (and a steal!) over his last six games, and has a .299 expected average and .533 expected slugging percentage, so he could continue to be pretty useful moving forward. | | Luis Garcia , 2B, Nationals (10%) – Garcia is one of those players I've always been intrigued by in flashes, which means I'm always going to be interested when those flashes show up in games. So far this season, they have been, as he's hitting .294 after going 1 for 3 with two steals Wednesday, with underlying numbers to suggest it might not be a fluke. He's always shown plus raw power, but Garcia is starting to tap into it a bit more often, with career-high 34% flyball rate and 18% barrel rate, a massive number. That has only led to one homer so far, but Garcia does have seven doubles, so I don't think it's unreasonable to expect some more over-the-fence pop moving forward. Garcia has solid contact skills and good raw power, and it could manifest as 20-plus homers and a helpful batting average to go along with what should be double-digit speed. If you need a 2B or are just looking for some upside in a deeper league, give him a look. | | | | News and Notes | | Justin Verlander is back! He'll make his season debut Friday against the Nationals. Verlander allowed 13 runs (11 earned) over 7 innings pitched in his rehab assignment as he worked his way back from a shoulder injury, and his velocity has been down anywhere from 0.5 to 1.0 mph when he's pitched, so don't be surprised if it isn't the softest landing. | | Tyler O'Neill was out of the lineup Wednesday and is unlikely to play Thursday, too. He had a pretty nasty collision with Rafael Devers on Monday, but the hope is he'll be back in the lineup this weekend after clearing the concussion protocol. | | Kyle Bradish looked good in his first rehab start, tossing three scoreless innings with four strikeouts. His fastball was hitting 95-96, which is good news as he works his way back from UCL damage. I'd still expect we won't see him until mid-May at the earliest. | | Yu Darvish was placed on the IL with neck tightness, retroactive to April 15. | | Garrett Whitlock was placed on the IL with a left oblique strain. | | Eduardo Rodriguez was transferred to the 60-day IL. Rodriguez was recently shut down after experiencing a setback with his left shoulder. | | Brett Baty was out of the lineup due to hamstring tightness but is optimistic he'll avoid the IL. | | Taijuan Walker will throw a bullpen Friday and could be activated from the IL after that. I'd guess Spencer Turnbull gets pulled from the rotation when Walker is back, which is frustrating because he's off to a really good start armed with a new sweeper. Walker is a pretty boring rotation depth piece for Fantasy. | | Kris Bryant was placed on the IL with a lower back strain. | | Jake Cronenworth has missed two straight with calf tightness. | | Ke'Bryan Hayes has missed two straight with lower-back tightness. He missed time last season with a back injury, so it's a little concerning that it's early cropping up again. | | Wednesday's standouts | | Pablo Lopez, Twins @BAL: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 K – It's been a bit of an up-and-down start for Lopez, but this performance against one of the best lineups in the league should make you feel better if you were worried. Though, for what it's worth, I don't think there's anything to worry about; he's still a top-six SP for me. | | Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays vs. NYY: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 K – Gausman's velocity was all the way back to where it was last season, and he had arguably his best start of the season so far against a tough Yankees lineup. It's hard to ignore Gausman's slow start coming back from a shoulder injury, but I think this was a very promising outing, and one that should quiet most of the concerns you had coming in. | | Max Fried , Braves @HOU: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 2 K – Unfortunately, I cannot say the same for Fried, who has two starts with more walks than strikeouts in four turns through the rotation; the last time he had a start with more walks than strikeouts prior to this season was in May of 2021. I'd be inclined to write this off as a fluke if Fried didn't miss time last season with a forearm injury, but with that in the back of my mind, I can't help but be concerned about this uncharacteristically poor start. He gets the Marlins in his next start, and if that goes well, I would at least consider selling high. | | Bryce Miller, Mariners vs. CIN: 6 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 7 K – Miller was another big rankings riser for me since the start of the season, mostly because his splitter looks like it adds a whole new element to his game. His four-seam fastball remains a tremendous pitch, but the splitter is really the first good looking secondary pitch he's shown in the majors so far. Miller's sinker also looks like a solid addition to the repertoire. I'd like to see more from the sweeper or slider – one whiff between them on 15 pitches Wednesday – but I think he's good enough without them to be a top-50 pitcher. | | Tanner Houck, Red Sox vs. CLE: 9 IP, 3 H, 0 ER< 0 BB, 9 K – Oh, we're burying the lede here. I've moved Houck up a ton since the start of the season as well, but it's hard not to think he needs to move up even more after a complete-game shutout against the Guardians. Houck threw his fastball just 23% of the time in this one, as he leaned heavily on his slider and splitter, combining for 17 whiffs on 69 pitches in this one, and he now has 28 strikeouts to just two walks through his first four starts, with a quality start in three of four. With the splitter helping to fill out his arsenal, Houck might be a legitimate must-start pitcher moving forward. | | Michael King, Padres @MIL: 7.2 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 10 K – This was a heck of a performance from King, but I think I might be willing to treat this as the opening of a sell-high window. Partially, that's because I just didn't fully buy the hype with King this offseason, but also because this was just the first time he's really looked impressive this season. I think King is still worth rostering, but I just don't know if I see a path to him being a true must-start Fantasy option moving forward with his fastball-heavy approach leading to so few whiffs most starts. | | Luis Severino, Mets vs. PIT: 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 4 K – Severino is also very much a sell-high candidate for me until we get some sign that he's rediscovered his slider. He threw that pitch just 12 times in this one, his fourth-most used pitch, and he got just four swings and two whiffs on it. Kudos to Severino for working to develop more pitches after being largely a two-pitch pitcher at his peak, but I just haven't seen any reason to think he can get back to that level without his slider | | Alber Suarez, Orioles vs. MIN: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 K – I think the primary takeaway here is that the Twins are a pretty good streaming matchup right now, especially in a home park like Baltimore's. Suarez did get 11 whiffs with his four-seam fastball, which averaged 95.9 mph in this one, so I don't want to write this off entirely as a fluke. But I'm going to need to see more than one good start from a 34-year-old who hasn't pitched in the majors since 2017 before I buy in outside of deep AL-only leagues. | | Jake Irvin, Nationals @LAD: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 K – What, Jake Irvin did that against who? Well, I suppose we can't ignore that one entirely, especially with Irvin getting nine whiffs with his four-seamer, which was up 1.5 mph from his prior starts. Of course, he had just two whiffs with the rest of his arsenal, so I'm still inclined to mostly ignore this one. Sometimes weird things happen in baseball, and that's what I'm chalking this one up to, especially without the great home park and elite offense Suarez has backing him up. | | Joel Payamps, RP, Brewers – After the first week of the season, it sure looked like Abner Uribe was going to run away with the closer job for the Brewers, but that may have been premature. Uribe has struggled with his command and hasn't gotten as many whiffs as expected this season, opening the door for Payamps to factor back into the ninth inning, and he worked a perfect one for the save Wednesday. It wouldn't surprise me if Uribe got the next save – he worked the eighth in this one – but Payamps should be rostered in roughly as many leagues as Uribe is, at least. | | Pete Fairbanks, RP, Rays – It's been an absolutely disastrous start to the season for Fairbanks, who walked two en route to a blown save Wednesday against the Angels and now has eight walks in seven innings so far, with only eight strikeouts. His velocity has been down about two mph from 2023 as well, and given Fairbanks' injury history, I don't think we can overlook. Consider adding Jason Adam as insurance, just in case. | | | | | | | | NWSL | | Golazo Network | Watch a matchup between Angel City FC and NC Courage this Sunday at 7:30 PM ET on CBS Sports Network.
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